本文關(guān)鍵詞： 手足口病 時間序列分析 SARIMA模型　出處：《數(shù)學(xué)的實(shí)踐與認(rèn)識》2017年09期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：建立新疆手足口病發(fā)病率的季節(jié)求和自回歸-移動平均模型(Seasonal AutoregressiveIntegrated Moving Average Model,SARIMA),探討采用SARIMA模型預(yù)測手足口病發(fā)病趨勢的可行性和實(shí)用性.利用R統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件基于新疆2006-2012手足口病月發(fā)病率數(shù)據(jù)建立SARIMA模型,擬合2012年手足口病各月發(fā)病率數(shù)據(jù),并預(yù)測了2013年手足口病月發(fā)病率.經(jīng)過序列平穩(wěn)化、模型識別以及模型診斷,SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,0)_(12)能較好地?cái)M合既往時間段的發(fā)病率,且預(yù)測值符合新疆手足口病實(shí)際發(fā)病率的波動趨勢.SARIMA模型能夠有效地預(yù)測手足口病發(fā)病趨勢,對預(yù)警、防控具有積極指導(dǎo)意義.
[Abstract]:To establish the seasonal summation autoregressive moving average model of HFMD incidence in Xinjiang, to explore the feasibility and practicability of using SARIMA model to predict the incidence trend of HFMD in Xinjiang, and to explore the feasibility and practicability of using R statistical software based on Xinjiang hand, foot and mouth disease from 2006 to 2012. SARIMA model was established based on the monthly morbidity data of foot diseases. The monthly incidence of HFMD on 2012 was fitted, and the monthly incidence of HFMD in 2013 was predicted. After sequence stabilization, model recognition and model diagnosis, the incidence of HFMD in previous period could be well fitted. The predicted value is in line with the fluctuation trend of actual incidence of HFMD in Xinjiang. SARIMA model can effectively predict the incidence trend of HFMD, which has positive guiding significance for early warning, prevention and control.
【作者單位】： 新疆醫(yī)科大學(xué)醫(yī)學(xué)工程技術(shù)學(xué)院;新疆醫(yī)科大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(11401512,11461073) 新疆醫(yī)科大學(xué)衛(wèi)生事業(yè)發(fā)展改革研究所項(xiàng)目(HADR201501)
【分類號】：R181.3;R512.5

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前3條

1 劉濤;王顯軍;姜寶法;丁淑軍;王連森;孫大鵬;裴耀文;林藝;王建醒;逄博;;SARIMA模型預(yù)測山東省手足口病發(fā)病趨勢[J];中國衛(wèi)生統(tǒng)計(jì);2013年05期

2 徐燕;閻玉霞;韓劍鋒;陳平雁;;香港地區(qū)流行性腮腺炎月發(fā)病例數(shù)SARIMA模型預(yù)測分析[J];熱帶醫(yī)學(xué)雜志;2013年01期

3 ;[J];;年期

相關(guān)會議論文 前1條

1 黃毅;馬婧;張建波;;邢臺平原四縣月平均氣溫資料SARIMA模型分析[A];第28屆中國氣象學(xué)會年會——S5氣候預(yù)測新方法和新技術(shù)[C];2011年

，

本文編號：1534434