本文選題：人工社會(huì) + Agent�。� 參考：《國(guó)防科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)通常表現(xiàn)為系統(tǒng)中存在大量自主交互的個(gè)體以及由此產(chǎn)生的全局行為具有動(dòng)態(tài)性、不確定性、難以重現(xiàn)性或不可重復(fù)性等特點(diǎn),如社會(huì)系統(tǒng)、軟件密集型的社會(huì)技術(shù)系統(tǒng)等。復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)中出現(xiàn)的某些突發(fā)事件(如疾病傳染、網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊等)可能會(huì)誘發(fā)系統(tǒng)宏觀層面的一些“壞”涌現(xiàn),例如疾病暴發(fā)、系統(tǒng)癱瘓等,從而可能會(huì)對(duì)系統(tǒng)的利益相關(guān)者以及系統(tǒng)中的個(gè)體造成嚴(yán)重危害與負(fù)面影響。因而,如何提供有效的方法來(lái)對(duì)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)中的突發(fā)事件進(jìn)行應(yīng)急管理是目前社會(huì)科學(xué)、復(fù)雜性科學(xué)、管理科學(xué)、控制科學(xué)以及計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)等諸多學(xué)科所關(guān)注的一個(gè)重要研究課題。社會(huì)計(jì)算借助于計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)及社會(huì)科學(xué)等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域的思想和技術(shù)來(lái)研究和分析復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)中的社會(huì)和計(jì)算行為,它已成為突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理研究的一個(gè)重要方法和手段。本文以突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理為具體應(yīng)用背景,采用社會(huì)計(jì)算的方法來(lái)支持針對(duì)社會(huì)系統(tǒng)中的突發(fā)事件的應(yīng)急管理政策的評(píng)估、分析、優(yōu)化或選擇,通過(guò)在計(jì)算機(jī)世界構(gòu)建社會(huì)系統(tǒng)的計(jì)算模型(即人工社會(huì)),采用多Agent系統(tǒng)的思想對(duì)人工社會(huì)進(jìn)行抽象、建模和仿真,從而開(kāi)展突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理實(shí)驗(yàn)。論文通過(guò)在人工社會(huì)中的可重復(fù)性實(shí)驗(yàn)展示應(yīng)急管理政策的有效性,并且可將其應(yīng)用于現(xiàn)實(shí)社會(huì)系統(tǒng)的突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理中。論文所取得的主要研究成果及創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)概述如下。1.為了支持突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理政策的評(píng)估、分析與選擇,提出了一種輕量級(jí)的社會(huì)計(jì)算方法——PZE(即政策選擇、基于僵尸城的人工社會(huì)建模以及政策評(píng)估)。針對(duì)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理所帶來(lái)的挑戰(zhàn),同時(shí)為了解決現(xiàn)有社會(huì)計(jì)算方法的臃腫性、缺乏靈活性等問(wèn)題,論文圍繞應(yīng)急管理政策的評(píng)估與選擇,借助于迭代開(kāi)發(fā)、閉環(huán)控制等思想,并引入情景/應(yīng)對(duì)(scenario/response)的應(yīng)急管理模式,提出了針對(duì)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理政策選擇、評(píng)估與優(yōu)化的輕量級(jí)社會(huì)計(jì)算方法——PZE。由于PZE方法集成了軟件工程、控制學(xué)等領(lǐng)域的一些成熟的思想,具有簡(jiǎn)單、靈活、易使用、低成本等輕量級(jí)方法的特性,其主要包括以下三個(gè)部分:(P)針對(duì)突發(fā)事件場(chǎng)景來(lái)選擇合適的應(yīng)急管理政策,即政策選擇;(Z)基于僵尸城(Zombie-city)模型來(lái)構(gòu)建人工社會(huì)模型;(E)借助于人工社會(huì)模型開(kāi)展應(yīng)急管理實(shí)驗(yàn),評(píng)估應(yīng)急管理政策的有效性,并給出評(píng)估結(jié)果,而這些評(píng)估結(jié)果又作為政策選擇的反饋,為政策的選擇提供有效的支持。2.為了給突發(fā)事件及其應(yīng)急管理提供一般性的分析模型,提出了以Agent、病毒(Virus)和交互(Interaction)為核心的面向應(yīng)急管理的AVI模型及其擴(kuò)展模型——僵尸城模型(Zombie-city)。由于社會(huì)系統(tǒng)中個(gè)體間的局部非線性交互,突發(fā)事件(如傳染病、謠言傳播)會(huì)在社會(huì)系統(tǒng)中不斷地演化和發(fā)展,進(jìn)而產(chǎn)生全局性的宏觀行為,因而突發(fā)事件演變的本質(zhì)實(shí)際上是傳播問(wèn)題。為了揭示和分析突發(fā)事件帶來(lái)的傳播問(wèn)題,論文提出了一個(gè)包含Agent、病毒以及交互三個(gè)核心概念的AVI模型,以表示復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)中參與傳播的個(gè)體、傳播的載體和內(nèi)容、傳播的媒體和途徑。在此基礎(chǔ)上,論文進(jìn)一步提出了針對(duì)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理的人工社會(huì)模型——僵尸城模型(Zombie-city),該模型除了包含以上三個(gè)核心概念之外,還包括了角色、環(huán)境(物理環(huán)境和社會(huì)環(huán)境)、規(guī)則。角色表示一類Agent的抽象,Agent通過(guò)扮演角色來(lái)獲取不同的行為與屬性,并能通過(guò)動(dòng)態(tài)地扮演角色來(lái)適應(yīng)環(huán)境與自身變化。物理環(huán)境表示Agent所生活的空間,社會(huì)環(huán)境主要指Agent之間的社會(huì)關(guān)系,Agent行為會(huì)受到環(huán)境的影響。此外,規(guī)則定義了Agent、病毒、交互、角色及環(huán)境等的屬性或行為規(guī)范,其也能用于描述應(yīng)急管理政策等。該模型能更為系統(tǒng)地刻畫面向突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理的人工社會(huì),為人工社會(huì)建模提供了參考與指導(dǎo)。3.為支持對(duì)基于僵尸城模型的人工社會(huì)進(jìn)行建模和分析,提出了一種圖形化的人工社會(huì)建模語(yǔ)言——ASML(Artificial Society Modeling Language)。為了支持人工社會(huì)建模與分析,論文借助于社會(huì)組織學(xué)思想(包括組織、角色等)以及角色動(dòng)態(tài)扮演機(jī)制等,基于Zombie-city模型提出了人工社會(huì)建模語(yǔ)言ASML,包括建模語(yǔ)言的元模型、模型、可視化建模圖元以及形式化語(yǔ)義等。ASML從不同視點(diǎn)、層次與建模機(jī)制提供了五類模型,包括人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)模型、環(huán)境模型、角色模型、組織結(jié)構(gòu)模型以及交互模型,以便于系統(tǒng)地構(gòu)建人工社會(huì)模型�？傮w來(lái)說(shuō),ASML建模語(yǔ)言具有高層抽象、自然建模、多視點(diǎn)、可視化、模型易于理解、表達(dá)能力強(qiáng)等特點(diǎn)。此外,為了支撐基于建模語(yǔ)言ASML的人工社會(huì)建模,論文還設(shè)計(jì)并開(kāi)發(fā)了人工社會(huì)建模支撐工具ASMLTools,其包括模型的可視化編輯、模型存儲(chǔ)、模型載入與導(dǎo)出、模型轉(zhuǎn)換等功能。4.為了支持針對(duì)突發(fā)事件的應(yīng)急管理政策的評(píng)估,進(jìn)而支持政策的優(yōu)化及選擇,提出了定量與定性相結(jié)合的應(yīng)急管理政策評(píng)估方法。應(yīng)急管理政策的評(píng)估對(duì)于政策能否有效地應(yīng)對(duì)和管理突發(fā)事件至關(guān)重要,為政策的選擇或優(yōu)化提供反饋,論文提出了一種定性和定量相結(jié)合的方法。在定量評(píng)估方法方面,論文提供了一個(gè)一般性的方法框架,基于情景提取人工社會(huì)的宏觀屬性,同時(shí)根據(jù)具體的應(yīng)用提取相關(guān)的評(píng)估參數(shù),并利用數(shù)值方法將宏觀屬性與評(píng)估參數(shù)相結(jié)合定量地評(píng)估政策的效果。此外,涌現(xiàn)程度也側(cè)面反映了應(yīng)急管理政策的效果,論文通過(guò)對(duì)涌現(xiàn)進(jìn)行分類,提出了基于信息熵理論的三種定量度量涌現(xiàn)程度的方法,并通過(guò)仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)展示了三種度量方法的有效性,三種度量也可用于定量地分析應(yīng)急管理政策的效果。在定性分析方面,論文同樣也提出了通過(guò)基于定理與規(guī)則的形式化推理的應(yīng)急管理政策定性分析方法。首先,通過(guò)基于Zombie-city模型構(gòu)建人工社會(huì)形式化模型并將政策轉(zhuǎn)換為人工社會(huì)中的規(guī)則,然后利用形式化推理(情景推理)定性地評(píng)估和分析政策的有效性。為此,論文還給出了Zombie-city的形式化規(guī)約以及人工社會(huì)中情景的形式化描述。定性評(píng)估方法可用于輔助定量評(píng)估方法,其能進(jìn)一步確認(rèn)和說(shuō)明應(yīng)急管理政策的定量評(píng)估結(jié)果,通過(guò)定量與定性相結(jié)合的政策評(píng)估方法能更為顯式和準(zhǔn)確地展示政策的有效性。論文以H1N1在某大學(xué)校園中的傳播以及互聯(lián)網(wǎng)環(huán)境下社交媒體中的廣告信息傳播作為案例,開(kāi)展相關(guān)的分析和實(shí)驗(yàn),以展示如何基于人工社會(huì)模型Zombie-city及建模語(yǔ)言ASML進(jìn)行人工社會(huì)建模,以及如何利用PZE方法開(kāi)展應(yīng)急管理工作及其有效性。
[Abstract]:Complex systems are usually manifested in the existence of a large number of independent individuals in the system and the resulting global behavior, such as dynamic, uncertain, reproducible or unrepeatable, such as social systems, software intensive social technology systems, and some other emergencies in complex systems (such as disease contagion, network attack). It may induce some "bad" emergence at the macro level of the system, such as the outbreak of disease, the paralysis of the system and so on, which may cause serious harm and negative influence to the stakeholders of the system and the individual in the system. Therefore, how to provide an effective method to manage the emergency in the complex system is the present. An important research subject in many disciplines, such as social science, complexity science, management science, control science, and computer science. Social computing, with the help of ideas and techniques in many fields, such as computer science and Social Sciences, studies and analyzes social and computational behavior in complex systems. It has become an emergency emergency. An important method and means of management research. This paper, taking emergency management as the specific application background, adopts the method of social calculation to support the evaluation, analysis, optimization or selection of emergency management policy for sudden events in the social system, and constructs a computing model of the social system in the world of the computer, that is, the artificial society. The idea of multi Agent system is used to abstract, model and simulate the artificial society, so as to carry out the emergency management experiment of emergency. The paper shows the effectiveness of the emergency management policy through the repeatability experiment in the artificial society, and can apply it to the emergency management of the real social system. In order to support the assessment, analysis and selection of emergency management policy of emergency, a lightweight social computing method, PZE (policy selection, artificial social modeling based on zombie city and policy assessment), is proposed by.1.. In order to solve the problem of overstaffing and lack of flexibility of the existing social computing methods, the paper focuses on the evaluation and selection of emergency management policy, with the aid of iterative development, closed loop control and so on, and introduces the emergency management mode of the situation / response (scenario/response), and puts forward the light of emergency management policy selection, evaluation and optimization. The PZE. method of social computing - the PZE method integrates some mature ideas in the fields of software engineering, control and other fields, with the characteristics of lightweight methods such as simple, flexible, easy to use, low cost and so on. It mainly includes the following three parts: (P) the choice of appropriate emergency management policy for emergency scene, that is, policy choice; (Z) Based on the Zombie-city (zombie city) model, an artificial social model is constructed; (E) an emergency management experiment is carried out with the aid of an artificial social model to assess the effectiveness of the emergency management policy and to give the results of the assessment. The results also serve as a feedback to the policy choices and provide effective support for the choice of the policy to give.2. to the emergency and the emergency. Emergency management provides a general analysis model, and proposes an emergency management oriented AVI model with Agent, virus (Virus) and interaction (Interaction) as its core, and its extended model, zombie city model (Zombie-city). Due to the local nonlinear interaction among individuals in the social system, unexpected events (such as infectious diseases, rumor spread) will be in society. In order to reveal and analyze the propagation problems caused by sudden events, a AVI model, which includes three core concepts of Agent, virus and interaction, is proposed to show the participation of the complex system. On the basis of this, the paper further proposes an artificial social model for emergency management of emergencies, the Zombie-city, which includes the three core concepts, including the role, the environment (physical environment and the social environment), and the rules. The role represents the abstract of a class of Agent. Agent plays the role to obtain different behaviors and attributes, and can adapt to the environment and self change by playing the role dynamically. The physical environment indicates the space in which Agent lives, the social environment mainly refers to the social relations between the Agent, the Agent behavior will be affected by the environment. In addition, the rules It defines the attributes or behavior specifications of Agent, virus, interaction, role and environment, and it can also be used to describe emergency management policy. This model can engrave the artificial society of emergency management of sudden events more systematically, and provide reference and guidance for artificial social modeling to support the construction of artificial society based on the zombie city model. Model and analysis, a graphical artificial social modeling language, ASML (Artificial Society Modeling Language), is proposed. In order to support the modeling and analysis of artificial society, the thesis is based on the social histology (including organization, role and so on) and the role dynamic playing machine. Based on the Zombie-city model, the artificial social modeling is proposed. Language ASML, including metamodel of modeling language, model, visual modeling element and formal semantic.ASML, provides five kinds of models from different viewpoint, level and modeling mechanism, including demography model, environment model, role model, organization structure model and intersection model, so as to build an artificial social model in a systematic way. For example, ASML modeling language has high level of abstraction, natural modeling, multi view, visualization, easy to understand model and strong expressive ability. In addition, in order to support artificial social modeling based on modeling language ASML, the thesis also designs and develops the artificial social modeling support tool ASMLTools, which includes model editing, model storage and model. In order to support the assessment of emergency management policy for emergencies and support the optimization and selection of the policy,.4. has put forward the evaluation method of the emergency management policy combining quantitative and qualitative. The assessment of emergency management policy is crucial to the effective response and management of the emergency. In order to provide feedback for policy selection or optimization, a qualitative and quantitative method is proposed in this paper. In terms of quantitative evaluation, the paper provides a general method framework for extracting macro attributes of artificial society based on scenarios, extracting relevant evaluation parameters according to specific use and using numerical methods. Macro attributes and evaluation parameters are combined to quantify the effect of policy. In addition, the degree of emergence also reflects the effect of emergency management policy. By classifying the emergence of the emergence, the paper presents three quantitative measurement methods based on the information entropy theory, and shows the effectiveness of the three measures through simulation experiments. The three measures can also be used to quantitatively analyze the effect of emergency management policy. In the qualitative analysis, the thesis also puts forward the qualitative analysis method of emergency management policy based on formal reasoning based on theorems and rules. First, the artificial social formalized model is constructed based on the Zombie-city model and the policy is converted into an artificial society. In this paper, the formal specification of Zombie-city and the formal description of the situation in the artificial society are given. The qualitative assessment method can be used to assist the quantitative evaluation method, which can further confirm and explain the emergency management policy. The quantitative and qualitative evaluation method can show the effectiveness of policy more clearly and accurately. The paper takes H1N1 in a university campus and the communication of advertising information in social media in the Internet environment as a case to carry out the related analysis and experiment to show how to be based on people. The social and social model Zombie-city and modeling language ASML are used for artificial social modeling, and how to use PZE to carry out emergency management work and its effectiveness.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：國(guó)防科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：D035
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本文編號(hào)：1930718