本文選題：潛在增長率 + 實物資本存量�。� 參考：《華僑大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：自金融危機(jī)以來,我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度明顯放緩。2011-2015年的GDP增長率分別為9.3%、7.7%、7.7%、7.4%和6.9%。與以往10%左右的高速增長相比,這些實際增長率可認(rèn)為是中高速增長。然而,中高速增長只是一個相對概念,并未有明確的數(shù)量界定。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài),新舊增長動力的轉(zhuǎn)化尚未完成,一些不確定風(fēng)險開始顯現(xiàn),我國經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力依舊較大。那么,我國未來可實現(xiàn)的中高速增長率是多少呢?我國未來的增長潛能又有多大呢?潛在產(chǎn)出是一國各種資源充分利用條件下可達(dá)到的最大化產(chǎn)出,是實際產(chǎn)出的最大可能邊界,據(jù)此計算得到的增長率為潛在增長率。對潛在增長率的測度不僅能準(zhǔn)確地判斷經(jīng)濟(jì)體運(yùn)行的最大限度,更能為未來宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略以及經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的制定提供決策參考。本文在對潛在增長率估算的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇了生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法來測算我國的潛在增長率。值得注意的是,人力資本積累是經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長的決定性因素和產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的真正源泉和動力,而我國的人力資本在過去的三十多年間也經(jīng)歷了顯著地提升。因此,本文在測算時除了考慮傳統(tǒng)的生產(chǎn)要素,如實物資本、勞動力和技術(shù)進(jìn)步外,還加入人力資本。實物資本和人力資本作為兩種重要的生產(chǎn)要素,其充分利用并不意味著兩種要素的配置也達(dá)到合理狀態(tài)。本文基于MRW生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型通過數(shù)理推導(dǎo)證明,在兩種資本總量之和不變的條件下,無論生產(chǎn)函數(shù)屬于規(guī)模報酬不變、遞增還是遞減,實物資本與人力資本的最佳配置比例為二者的產(chǎn)出彈性之比。那么,最大化產(chǎn)出的極致狀態(tài)是各種要素充分利用且達(dá)到最佳配置比例。生產(chǎn)要素利用率的估計本身較為復(fù)雜,為使問題簡單化,本文假定在現(xiàn)有生產(chǎn)要素利用率條件下,當(dāng)實物資本與人力資本達(dá)到最佳配置比例時達(dá)到的產(chǎn)出水平,定義為“潛在產(chǎn)出”,這種界定是對“最大化產(chǎn)出”概念含義的拓展和延伸,而實際產(chǎn)出對潛在產(chǎn)出的偏離就是潛在損失或效率損失。這是對以往利用生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法測算潛在增長率方法的一種全新的嘗試。目前我國尚未有權(quán)威部門發(fā)布實物資本存量和人力資本存量的數(shù)據(jù)。由于各位學(xué)者采用的方法不同,估算結(jié)果存在較大的差異。本文采用了不同的方法重新估算了兩種資本存量。針對實物資本,本文在數(shù)理推導(dǎo)折舊率、資本產(chǎn)出比、固定資本形成率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上,以國家統(tǒng)計局公布的10個投入產(chǎn)出表年份的折舊額數(shù)據(jù)為校準(zhǔn)點,假定投入產(chǎn)出表年份間的各時段內(nèi)采用平均折舊率,將估算起點設(shè)定在第一個投入產(chǎn)出表年份——1987年,然后向前反推過去年份、向后遞推以后年份,同時估算各個時段的折舊率和資本存量。由于實現(xiàn)了校準(zhǔn)點年份的折舊額與投入產(chǎn)出表數(shù)據(jù)的完全一致,從而確保了本文估算結(jié)果的可靠性。針對人力資本存量,本文沿用了成本加權(quán)法來估算,并做了兩點改進(jìn):一是考慮到人力資本的人身依附性,客觀上需要醫(yī)療保健來維持生命的健康和體力的充沛,需要自我學(xué)習(xí)或娛樂來保持知識和技能的更新,故將人力資本投資成本范圍拓展為直接教育、醫(yī)療保健及文教娛樂支出;二是考慮到教育投資時滯,即成為擁有某種學(xué)歷的勞動力花費(fèi)的教育時間很長,故在估算過程中使用不同年齡階段的勞動力的學(xué)歷分布數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行計算,更為客觀地還原各學(xué)歷層次勞動者的真實教育成本,反映了人力資本形成存在的時滯�；谏鲜龉赖玫纳a(chǎn)要素數(shù)據(jù),本文從要素合理配置視角測算了我國1978-2011年間的潛在產(chǎn)出、潛在增長率及潛在損失。結(jié)果顯示:勞均實物資本和勞均人力資本的產(chǎn)出彈性分別為0.655和0.2589,意味著兩種資本的最佳配置比例為2.53,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于兩種資本存量之比9.53。潛在產(chǎn)出曲線明顯位于實際產(chǎn)出曲線之上且兩條曲線的差距越來越大,說明潛在損失為正且絕對額越來越大。1978-2011年時段潛在損失累計達(dá)到469142.77億元,占同期實際累計產(chǎn)出的15.33%。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文預(yù)測了我國2015-2020年間的潛在產(chǎn)出、潛在增長率及潛在損失,結(jié)果顯示:2015-2020年間潛在增長率平均為6.44%,實際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率平均為6.39%,比潛在增長率低0.05%,該期間的潛在損失累計達(dá)到520648.47億元,比1978-2011時段多出51505.7億元。這說明:如果兩種資本繼續(xù)保持以往的增長規(guī)律不變,兩者之間的錯配關(guān)系就會繼續(xù),由此造成的效率損失也會繼續(xù)且損失會越來越大。已經(jīng)形成的資本結(jié)構(gòu)無法變更,只能在未來資本擴(kuò)張的過程中逐步調(diào)整。為了減少兩種資本錯配的效率損失,本文最后從放緩實物資本投資速度優(yōu)化投資結(jié)構(gòu)、加大教育投資力度拓寬經(jīng)費(fèi)來源、增加醫(yī)療保健投入改善城鄉(xiāng)醫(yī)療服務(wù)、加強(qiáng)研發(fā)投入和人才培養(yǎng)提高全要素生產(chǎn)率等方面提出了相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis, the growth rate of China's economic growth has slowed down significantly in.2011-2015 years, and the growth rate of GDP is 9.3%, 7.7%, 7.7%, 7.4% and 6.9%., compared with the high speed growth of the past 10%, these actual growth rates can be considered as medium and high speed growth. However, the growth of middle and high speed is only a relative concept, with no definite quantitative definition. China's economic development has entered a new normal state, the transformation of the old and new growth power has not been completed, some uncertain risks are beginning to appear, and the economic downward pressure of our country is still larger. Then, what is the high rate of growth in China in the future? How big is our future growth potential? The potential output is the full utilization of various resources of a country The maximum possible output is the maximum possible boundary of the actual output, and the calculated growth rate is the potential growth rate. The measurement of the potential growth rate can not only accurately judge the maximum operation limit of the economy, but also provide the decision reference for the future macro economic development strategy and the economic policy formulation. On the basis of the related literature of potential growth rate estimation, the production function method is selected to measure the potential growth rate of China. It is worth noting that human capital accumulation is the decisive factor of sustained economic growth and the real source and power of industrial development, and human capital in China has also experienced the past more than 30 years. Therefore, in this paper, in addition to considering the traditional factors of production, such as physical capital, labor and technological progress, but also the addition of human capital. Physical capital and human capital as two important factors of production, its full use does not mean that the allocation of the two elements is also reasonable. This paper is based on the MRW production letter. By mathematical derivation, it is proved by mathematical derivation that, under the condition of the sum of the two capital amounts, the ratio of the production function to the scale is constant, increasing or decreasing, and the ratio of the optimal allocation of the physical capital to the human capital is the ratio of the output elasticity of the two. In order to simplify the problem, this paper assumes that the level of output reached when the actual capital and human capital reaches the optimal allocation ratio is defined as "potential output", which is a definition of the concept of "maximum output". The deviation of the actual output to the potential output is the potential loss or the loss of efficiency. This is a new attempt to measure the potential growth rate method using the production function method in the past. At present, there is no data on the stock of physical capital and the stock of human capital by authoritative departments in our country. In this paper, based on the relationship between the depreciation rate, the ratio of capital output, the rate of fixed capital formation and the rate of economic growth, the depreciation of the 10 input-output tables published by the national unified planning bureau, based on the different methods, is used to reestimate the two kinds of capital stock. The data is a calibration point, assuming the average depreciation rate in each period of the annual input and output table, setting the estimated starting point on the first input-output table year - 1987, then pushing forward the past years, recursion back years, and estimating the depreciation rate and capital stock at each time period. In accordance with the stock of human capital, this paper uses the cost weighting method to estimate and make two improvements. First, the human capital is considered to be dependent on human body and needs medical care to maintain the health and physical strength of life. In order to self study or entertain to maintain the update of knowledge and skills, the cost range of human capital investment is extended to direct education, medical care and entertainment expenditure. Two, considering the time lag of education investment, that is, it is a long time to become a labor cost with a certain degree of Education, so in the process of estimating the use of different age stages. Based on the above estimated production factor data, this paper calculates the potential output, potential growth rate and potential loss of China from the angle of rational allocation of factors for 1978-2011 years. The results show that the output elasticity of the labor capital and the labor capital is 0.655 and 0.2589 respectively, which means that the optimal allocation ratio of two kinds of capital is 2.53, which is far below the 9.53. potential output curve of the two capital stock, which is obviously on the actual output curve and the gap between the two curves is increasing, indicating the potential loss. The potential loss of positive and absolute greater.1978-2011 years has reached 46 trillion and 914 billion 277 million yuan, which accounts for the 15.33%. of the actual cumulative output in the same period. This paper predicts the potential output, potential growth rate and potential loss for 2015-2020 years in China. The result shows that the average growth rate of 2015-2020 years is 6.44%, and the real economic growth is in the period of 2015-2020 years. The average rate is 6.39%, which is 0.05% lower than the potential growth rate. The potential loss in this period is 52 trillion and 64 billion 847 million yuan, which is 5 trillion and 150 billion 570 million yuan more than the 1978-2011 period. This shows that if the two kinds of capital continue to remain unchanged, the mismatch between the two will continue, and the resulting efficiency loss will continue and the loss will become more. In order to reduce the efficiency loss of two kinds of capital mismatch, this paper finally optimizes the investment structure of the investment speed of the physical capital, enlarges the investment of education and widens the source of funds, and increases the health care investment to improve the urban and rural medical treatment. Services, strengthening R & D investment and personnel training, improving total factor productivity and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F124.1;F224
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本文編號：2063169