發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-16 18:55

  本文選題：信譽(yù)體系 + 市場競爭　； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年博士論文

【摘要】：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的普及對用戶的購物模式產(chǎn)生了巨大影響,越來越多的用戶選擇在網(wǎng)絡(luò)購物。網(wǎng)上交易過程中,買家會(huì)面臨更高的交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和更嚴(yán)重的信息不對稱。為了減弱這些不利影響,眾多第三方購物平臺(tái)引入了信譽(yù)體系,從而增強(qiáng)買賣雙方的信任、避免逆向選擇。信譽(yù)已成為賣方傳遞質(zhì)量信息的重要信號(hào),成為買方識(shí)別高質(zhì)量的賣家的重要依據(jù)。針對產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和銷量這兩個(gè)衡量網(wǎng)上賣家銷售效果的重要因素,本文在以往研究的基礎(chǔ)上,對信譽(yù)對價(jià)格和銷量的作用進(jìn)行深入探索。之前的研究利用不同網(wǎng)站的數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)信譽(yù)對價(jià)格和銷量影響模型的顯著性并不一致,本文針對信譽(yù)對價(jià)格和銷量影響有效性方面的不同結(jié)論,通過實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)針對同一產(chǎn)品在不同網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)中(淘寶網(wǎng)和e Bay網(wǎng)),信譽(yù)對價(jià)格和銷量影響的顯著性的確會(huì)存在差異。同時(shí)本文也指出該產(chǎn)品在兩個(gè)網(wǎng)站市場競爭程度不同,繼而構(gòu)建了市場競爭對信譽(yù)與價(jià)格、銷量關(guān)系的調(diào)節(jié)作用模型。本文指出即使在不同交易平臺(tái),信譽(yù)對價(jià)格和銷量均有顯著的影響,并指出競爭者數(shù)量會(huì)對信譽(yù)與價(jià)格、銷量的關(guān)系起到調(diào)節(jié)作用。鑒于產(chǎn)品定價(jià)的動(dòng)態(tài)性,本文收集了連續(xù)時(shí)間段內(nèi)賣家的定價(jià)數(shù)據(jù),探討了信譽(yù)對賣家定價(jià)行為的影響。本文基于淘寶和天貓賣家對于剛上市產(chǎn)品的定價(jià)和價(jià)格調(diào)整行為,對比了不同信譽(yù)等級(jí)的賣家在新產(chǎn)品定價(jià)策略和價(jià)格調(diào)整策略方面的異同,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)低信譽(yù)賣家剛進(jìn)入市場時(shí)更易采用滲透策略,其銷售過程中的價(jià)格調(diào)整行為會(huì)受到高信譽(yù)賣家的影響。以往研究通常將銷量視為連續(xù)型變量,本文考慮到銷量的計(jì)數(shù)性特征,分別采用泊松回歸、負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸和零膨脹負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸這三類計(jì)數(shù)型數(shù)據(jù)分析模型,對信譽(yù)與銷量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行擬合。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)品銷量具有過度離散、過度零的特點(diǎn),零膨脹負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型能更好的擬合這類數(shù)據(jù)。數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果顯示信譽(yù)不但影響賣家銷量的多少,也直接賣家銷量成為結(jié)構(gòu)零的可能性。此外,本文也發(fā)現(xiàn)不同地理區(qū)域的賣家銷量會(huì)受所處區(qū)域的影響,但與信譽(yù)的影響作用不同的是,地理位置信息并不會(huì)影響賣家銷量成為結(jié)構(gòu)零的可能性。針對于動(dòng)態(tài)的銷量數(shù)據(jù),本文發(fā)現(xiàn)傳統(tǒng)的混合截面模型不能有效進(jìn)行預(yù)測。為了動(dòng)態(tài)地描繪信譽(yù)與銷量的關(guān)系,也為了賣家在實(shí)際銷售過程中更好的預(yù)測產(chǎn)品銷量,本文通過非平衡面板數(shù)據(jù),逐步構(gòu)建了信譽(yù)和銷量的固定效應(yīng)模型。隨后又利用零膨脹負(fù)二項(xiàng)回歸模型,加入虛變量探討信譽(yù)對銷量的影響。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)信譽(yù)與銷量的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系仍顯著,同時(shí)信譽(yù)仍會(huì)影響銷量結(jié)構(gòu)零部分的預(yù)測,但預(yù)測的顯著性有所下降。本文通過編寫數(shù)據(jù)抓取程序,在淘寶網(wǎng)和e Bay網(wǎng)上獲取了不同產(chǎn)品的銷售信息,以及銷售該產(chǎn)品的所有賣家信息。通過SPSS和SAS軟件進(jìn)行分析,逐步拓展了信譽(yù)對價(jià)格和銷量的影響作用方面的研究。本文通過新穎的視角和方法,探討了信譽(yù)與價(jià)格、銷量動(dòng)態(tài)和靜態(tài)的關(guān)系。本文的研究成果在理論上,豐富了信譽(yù)和價(jià)格、信譽(yù)和銷量的研究模型和理論;在實(shí)踐中,對賣家定價(jià)決策的制定、產(chǎn)品銷量的預(yù)測均有現(xiàn)實(shí)的指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:The popularity of the Internet has a great impact on the user's shopping mode, more and more users in online shopping. Online transaction process, buyers will face higher transaction risk and more serious information asymmetry. In order to reduce these adverse effects, many third party shopping platform introduces the credit system, so as to enhance the trust of buyers and sellers to avoid adverse selection, credit has become an important signal. The delivery of quality information, has become an important basis for the seller buyer identification for high quality products for the price and sales volume of the two measure online sellers sales effect of the important factors, based on the previous studies, in-depth exploration of the effects of reputation on prices and sales. Previous studies using different web site data found reputation on prices and sales significantly impact model is not consistent, the credibility of price and sales Conclusion the different influence validity, found that for the same product in different network platform through the empirical data (taobao.com and E Bay network), significant impact on the credibility of the prices and sales will indeed be different. At the same time this paper also points out that the product competition degree in two different market sites, and then set up the market competition of reputation and price regulation model of sales relationship. This paper points out that even in different trading platform, the credibility of the price and sales have significant effects, and pointed out that the number of competitors to reputation and price, sales relationship play a regulatory role. In view of the dynamic pricing, this paper collected the data of continuous time pricing in the seller, to investigate the effect of reputation on pricing behavior. In this paper, Taobao and Tmall for the Seller pricing and price adjustment behavior just listed products based on the comparison of different reputation The similarities and differences between the rating of the seller in new product pricing and price adjustment strategy, the penetration strategy more easily found low reputation sellers just entering the market, the price adjustment behavior of the sales process will be affected by the high credibility of the seller. The previous research usually sales as continuous variables, considering the characteristics of counting sales, using Poisson regression, negative two regression and zero inflated negative binomial regression two of these three types of count data analysis model, used to describe the reputation and sales. We found that the sales of products with discrete, excessive zero, zero inflated negative two regression model can better fit the data the results show that not only affect the reputation. The number of sellers sales, direct sellers sales also become zero possibility structure. In addition, this paper also found that different geographical areas and sales by the seller The regional influence, but influence and credibility of the effect is different, geographic location information and the seller will not affect the sales possibility to become zero. Sales data structure for dynamic, this paper found that the mixed section of the traditional model can not effectively predict. In order to describe the relationship between dynamic reputation and sales, but also to better in practice sales in the process of product sales forecast, the unbalanced panel data, and gradually build a fixed effect model of reputation and sales. Then using zero inflated negative binomial regression model two, adding dummy variables to investigate the effects of reputation on sales. We find that the dynamic relationship between reputation and sales are still significant, and will affect the reputation forecasting sales structure of zero part, but significantly decreased the prediction. In this paper, through the preparation of data capture program, Bay and E in taobao.com online access to different product sales Information, all sellers information and sales of the product. Through the analysis of SPSS and SAS software, and gradually expand the research effect of reputation on price and sales. This article through perspective and novel methods, discusses the relationship between reputation and price, sales of static and dynamic. The results of this study in theory, the rich the reputation and price, research model and theory of reputation and sales; in practice, the formulation of the pricing decision, product sales forecast has practical significance.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F724.6;F274

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