本文關(guān)鍵詞： 后石油時代 SCP范式 產(chǎn)業(yè)演化 企業(yè)行為 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本論文力求對于“后石油時代”石油產(chǎn)業(yè)組織的演化特點和趨勢進行研究。論文選用了產(chǎn)業(yè)組織理論中的SCP范式為基礎(chǔ),并且結(jié)合演化經(jīng)濟學(xué)觀點就石油產(chǎn)業(yè)SCP范式的研究模型進行了具體設(shè)計。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本論文以“后石油時代”外部環(huán)境變化為原點,對于石油產(chǎn)業(yè)組織行為演進開展分析論證,在此基礎(chǔ)上對于石油產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和績效演進開展了實證分析,最后對于中國石油產(chǎn)業(yè)政策如何應(yīng)對“后石油時代”進行了論述和建議,并形成了若干結(jié)論。本論文對于“后石油時代”的動因、定義和供求特點進行了論述,認(rèn)為政府新能源政策的驅(qū)動和新能源技術(shù)突破的驅(qū)動,作為“后石油時代”的兩個主要動力,對于推動環(huán)境變遷起到關(guān)鍵性作用。本論文定義的“后石油時代”是指在全球低碳減排政策推動和新能源技術(shù)突破帶動下,非常規(guī)油氣資源和可再生能源在能源生產(chǎn)和消費結(jié)構(gòu)中對于傳統(tǒng)石油產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)生持續(xù)和重大的替代作用,從而降低和最終擺脫對傳統(tǒng)石油依賴的時代。本論文用理論分析和計量經(jīng)濟模型相結(jié)合的方法,重點對于“后石油時代”的石油供給和需求特征進行了分析,并以中國為例,對于“后石油時代”中國石油需求曲線進行了預(yù)測。同時,論證了在新環(huán)境背景下石油市場均衡的條件,以及在此條件下的石油價格特征,說明石油需求峰值的出現(xiàn)將是“后石油時代”的重要特點。本論文從石油企業(yè)的價格行為、資源獲取行為、一體化行為等三個方面對于“后石油時代”背景下的石油產(chǎn)業(yè)行為演進進行了研究。并分析了由于傳統(tǒng)石油產(chǎn)業(yè)進入門檻快速降低,導(dǎo)致大量市場進入行為,使“后石油時代”的傳統(tǒng)油氣企業(yè)組織面臨更大的挑戰(zhàn),市場結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生重要變化。本論文對于石油產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈各環(huán)節(jié)市場集中度變化進行了實證分析,并且對國際石油公司、國家石油公司和獨立石油公司三類組織的競爭態(tài)勢演變過程進行了量化研究。同時,從石油企業(yè)的規(guī)�？冃Ш托士冃蓚�角度,利用總資產(chǎn)規(guī)模和凈資產(chǎn)收益率分別對于“后石油時代”的市場績效演進變化進行了實證研究。這些實證性分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在“后石油時代”外部環(huán)境變化通過石油產(chǎn)業(yè)組織行為正在持續(xù)改變石油產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和市場績效。本論文在第五章中分析研究了在“后石油時代”中國石油產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨的核心問題,中國石油產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和企業(yè)行為的演進特點,以及中國石油企業(yè)績效和競爭力等現(xiàn)狀進行了研究,并對中國石油產(chǎn)業(yè)的政策優(yōu)化提出了建議。
[Abstract]:This paper tries to study the evolution characteristics and trend of petroleum industry organization in "post-petroleum era". The paper chooses the SCP paradigm of industrial organization theory as the basis. The research model of SCP paradigm in petroleum industry is designed based on the viewpoint of evolutionary economics. On this basis, the external environment change of "post-petroleum era" is taken as the origin of this paper. On the basis of the analysis and demonstration of the evolution of petroleum industry organizational behavior, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the evolution of petroleum industry structure and performance, and finally discusses and suggests how to deal with the "post-petroleum era" in China's petroleum industry policy. In this paper, the motivation, definition and characteristics of supply and demand of "post-petroleum era" are discussed, and the driving force of the government's new energy policy and the driving force of new energy technology breakthrough are pointed out. As the two main driving forces of the "post-petroleum era", it plays a key role in promoting environmental change. The definition of "post-petroleum era" in this paper refers to the global low-carbon emission reduction policy and the breakthrough of new energy technology. Unconventional oil and gas resources and renewable energy have a continuous and significant substitute role for traditional petroleum products in energy production and consumption structures. In order to reduce and finally get rid of the era of dependence on traditional oil, this paper uses the method of combining theoretical analysis and econometric model to analyze the characteristics of oil supply and demand in "post-petroleum era", and takes China as an example. The oil demand curve of China in the "post-petroleum era" is forecasted. At the same time, the conditions of oil market equilibrium under the new environment and the oil price characteristics under these conditions are demonstrated. It shows that the peak oil demand will be an important feature of the "post-petroleum era". This paper studies the evolution of petroleum industry behavior under the background of "post-petroleum era" from three aspects, such as integration behavior, and analyzes the behavior of market entry due to the rapid decrease of entry threshold of traditional oil industry. The traditional oil and gas enterprise organizations in the "post-petroleum era" are faced with greater challenges and the market structure has undergone important changes. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the changes of market concentration in various links of the petroleum industry chain, and makes an empirical analysis of the changes of the market concentration in various links of the oil industry chain, as well as the international oil companies. The evolution process of competition situation of three groups of national oil companies and independent oil companies is studied quantitatively. At the same time, from the perspective of scale performance and efficiency performance of oil enterprises, The evolution of market performance in the "post-petroleum era" is empirically studied by using the total asset size and the return on net assets, respectively. In the "post-petroleum era", the external environment changes the petroleum industry structure and market performance continuously through the petroleum industry organization behavior. In chapter 5th, this paper analyzes the core problems facing China's petroleum industry in the "post-petroleum era". This paper studies the evolution characteristics of China's petroleum industry structure and enterprise behavior, as well as the current situation of China's oil enterprises' performance and competitiveness, and puts forward some suggestions for the policy optimization of China's oil industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.22
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本文編號：1510940