本文關(guān)鍵詞：市民化對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的機(jī)理研究　出處：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口 市民化 CGE模型 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長

【摘要】：自從改革開放以來,隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展與城鎮(zhèn)化的不斷推進(jìn),有越來越多的農(nóng)村剩余勞動人口開始進(jìn)入城鎮(zhèn)務(wù)工,從事非農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)勞動,形成了一個(gè)特殊的農(nóng)民工群體。他們?yōu)槲覈?jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)與社會進(jìn)步做出了重要的貢獻(xiàn),并且已經(jīng)成為我國經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)中不可或缺的重要勞動力組成部分。但是就目前農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口的生活和發(fā)展?fàn)顟B(tài)來看,雖然他們在城鎮(zhèn)中工作、生活和發(fā)展,并且在人口統(tǒng)計(jì)中也被認(rèn)為是城鎮(zhèn)人口,但是絕大部分農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口都無法獲得城鎮(zhèn)戶籍,享受到城鎮(zhèn)人口的待遇。即使有部分農(nóng)民工獲得城鎮(zhèn)戶籍,但是他們的生活方式、消費(fèi)觀念、享受到的社會福利等都和真正意義上的城鎮(zhèn)人口有明顯的差距。農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口市民化水平不高,市民化不完全,使得我國的城鎮(zhèn)化實(shí)質(zhì)是較低水平的城鎮(zhèn)化�？v觀世界上各個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國家的發(fā)展歷史,市民化過程是城市和國家發(fā)展過程中不可或缺的環(huán)節(jié),同時(shí)市民化水平也可以看做是其現(xiàn)代化程度的重要標(biāo)準(zhǔn)之一。從西方發(fā)達(dá)國家的發(fā)展歷史上來看,其農(nóng)業(yè)人口非農(nóng)化與市民化是伴隨著城市化和工業(yè)化的過程同步進(jìn)行的,隨著工業(yè)化程度的不斷提升,城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)張,在這個(gè)過程中農(nóng)村勞動人口逐漸脫離農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)進(jìn)入城市定居,完成了生活方式和身份的轉(zhuǎn)變。因此西方國家中農(nóng)村勞動力向城市轉(zhuǎn)移與市民化的過程是同步進(jìn)行的。而我國的現(xiàn)狀比較特殊,農(nóng)村勞動人口轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槌鞘腥丝诘倪^程被明顯的劃分為兩個(gè)過程,第一個(gè)過程是農(nóng)村勞動人口進(jìn)入城市從事非農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)勞動,并且定居在城市,但是僅僅完成職業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)變,沒有完成身份和生活方式的轉(zhuǎn)變,他們與農(nóng)村還存在千絲萬縷的聯(lián)系。第二個(gè)過程是轉(zhuǎn)移出來的勞動力在城市中立足,其生活方式逐漸轉(zhuǎn)化成城市人口的生活方式,并且獲得城市人口身份,這樣才完成了整個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)化的過程。正是因?yàn)槲覈r(nóng)村勞動力轉(zhuǎn)移過程中存在的特殊性,造成了一部分人口已經(jīng)從農(nóng)村中轉(zhuǎn)移到城市,但是無法完全融入城市生活,沒有獲得城市人口的身份,就形成了目前社會中的一個(gè)特殊群體——農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口,該人群數(shù)量龐大,分布在城市的各個(gè)行業(yè)中,其生活狀態(tài)與發(fā)展前景已經(jīng)成為社會關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)之一。農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口市民化對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展會產(chǎn)生何種影響,其影響的原理和作用方式是什么,推動農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口市民化會對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到怎么樣的作用,如何完善政策以推動我國市民化進(jìn)程�，F(xiàn)有的研究對這幾個(gè)問題的涉及相對較少,僅有的研究大多從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度闡述了市民化與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系,或是缺少深入研究,沒有達(dá)到闡明市民化對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響的原因以及作用機(jī)理的層次；或是僅使用定性分析和理論研究,沒有使用定量分析的方法和數(shù)學(xué)模型進(jìn)行推導(dǎo),也不能全面有效的回答這些問題。因此在本文中,根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論,使用CGE模型為主要分析工具,使用理論推導(dǎo)和仿真研究兩種研究手段,就農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口市民化對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的所產(chǎn)生的影響以及作用機(jī)理進(jìn)行研究,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出促進(jìn)我國市民化進(jìn)程的一些建議和思路。本研究主要取得了以下一些研究成果：首先,綜合相關(guān)研究成果,對在研究中涉及到的一些概念如經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、市民化、城鎮(zhèn)化、人力資本、居民消費(fèi)等方面的概念進(jìn)行闡述。其中重點(diǎn)對市民化的定義進(jìn)行了研究,在本文中認(rèn)為完全的市民化有四個(gè)條件,分別是在城市中居住、在城市中就業(yè)、擁有城市戶籍以及擁有城市人口的生活方式。并研究了市民化對城鎮(zhèn)化、居民消費(fèi)以及人力資本三個(gè)方面的影響,從目前已有的研究成果來看,市民化可以有效促進(jìn)城市規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大,加速城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程,也可以明顯拉動居民平均消費(fèi)增長,并且可以提升整個(gè)社會的人力資本水平。同時(shí)也研究了城鎮(zhèn)化、居民消費(fèi)水平以及人力資本水平對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響,現(xiàn)有的研究成果已經(jīng)表明,城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高、居民消費(fèi)水平的上升以及人力資本水平提升都對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生明顯的促進(jìn)作用。這部分研究工作主要總結(jié)了前人研究成果,厘清相關(guān)概念,為后續(xù)的研究奠定了堅(jiān)實(shí)的理論基礎(chǔ)。其次,根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論,使用CGE模型,從理論角度就人力資本對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響進(jìn)行推理。該部分研究從CGE模型的一般形態(tài)著手,分析了CGE模型中的常用概念,包括初始稟值、社會收支矩陣等,也闡述了CGE模型方程的組成。再通過構(gòu)建方程的方式就市民化對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行推導(dǎo),從生產(chǎn)模塊、居民行為、政府行為角度著手,對實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的重點(diǎn)進(jìn)行抽象,形成方程組。后續(xù)的研究重點(diǎn)從理論角度推導(dǎo)了市民化對城鎮(zhèn)化、居民消費(fèi)、人力資本以及經(jīng)濟(jì)總量產(chǎn)生的影響。通過公式推導(dǎo)和理論證明,發(fā)現(xiàn)市民化對城鎮(zhèn)化、居民消費(fèi)水平以及社會整體的人力資本水平的提升都有促進(jìn)作用。在本部分的研究中從理論的角度論證了市民化對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)有促進(jìn)作用。接著,利用已經(jīng)建立起來的CGE模型,對我國現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀態(tài)進(jìn)行建模,對生產(chǎn)模塊、貿(mào)易模塊均衡模塊等進(jìn)行細(xì)分,對模型中涉及到的參數(shù)進(jìn)行合理賦值,使用我國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)際發(fā)展的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)對模型中的需要的變量進(jìn)行賦值,構(gòu)建了我國社會核算矩陣,生成了可供仿真用的模型。然后使用模型就市民化對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響進(jìn)行了仿真研究。在仿真中設(shè)計(jì)了四個(gè)仿真場景,分別為完全沒有市民化、2%的市民化比例并且該部分人口市民化程度不完全、2%的市民化比例并且該部分人口完全市民化、以及4%的市民化比例,以此來比較市民化、完全市民化以及市民化比例不同對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生的影響。仿真研究分為靜態(tài)仿真和動態(tài)仿真兩個(gè)部分,靜態(tài)仿真研究了經(jīng)濟(jì)的某個(gè)方面到2020年時(shí)的狀態(tài),動態(tài)仿真研究了每年經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的趨勢和變化。通過研究證實(shí),市民化對城鎮(zhèn)化、居民消費(fèi)、人力資本以及經(jīng)濟(jì)總量都有明顯的促進(jìn)作用,并且市民化程度越高,市民化越完全,促進(jìn)作用越明顯。最后,基于我國城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r和現(xiàn)有住房、教育、社會保障等政策的現(xiàn)狀,提出了完善推動我國市民化的政策建議,從戶籍、收入、土地、教育等多個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了闡述。就戶籍政策來說,從現(xiàn)有戶籍制度以及戶籍制度改革現(xiàn)狀著手,建議明確戶籍改革目標(biāo),并且強(qiáng)化戶籍對人口流動的管理功能,而削弱附加在戶籍上的其他公共資源分配。就收入分配政策來說,建議提高按勞分配在初次分配中的比例,同時(shí)為農(nóng)村勞動力提供公平的公共服務(wù),以提升其在就業(yè)市場上的競爭力。就土地政策來說,重點(diǎn)要建立起健全的土地流轉(zhuǎn)制度,保證農(nóng)村勞動人口遷移到城市后可以妥善處置所擁有的土地,維護(hù)自身經(jīng)濟(jì)利益的同時(shí)也可以有效提升土地的利用效率。就教育政策來說,建議將農(nóng)村地區(qū)的教學(xué)質(zhì)量提升作為未來教育工作的重點(diǎn),一方面為農(nóng)村留守兒童提供足夠優(yōu)質(zhì)的教育,另一方面為農(nóng)村勞動力提供技術(shù)培訓(xùn)以提升其勞動技能。就社會保障政策來說,建議建立起保障農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移人口相關(guān)制度,以及完全現(xiàn)有的社會保障政策,使得農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移人口可以享受到應(yīng)有的社會保障。就就業(yè)政策來說,建議建立起完善的就業(yè)相關(guān)政策體系,協(xié)調(diào)勞動力市場上的供求關(guān)系,打破城鄉(xiāng)二元化的勞動力市場,讓農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口可以和城市人口享受同樣的就業(yè)機(jī)會。就住房政策來說,提出了政府提供一定規(guī)模的廉租房和經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房,擴(kuò)大公積金覆蓋面和影響面,企業(yè)用人單位合力解決員工住房問題,農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移人口將農(nóng)村土地置換為城市住房等建議,都可以作為解決農(nóng)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移人口在城鎮(zhèn)中住房問題的解決方案。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the continuous development of China's economy and urban change steadily, more and more rural surplus labor force began to enter the urban workers engaged in agricultural production, the formation of a special group of migrant workers. They are China's economic development has made important contributions to urban construction and society progress, and has become an important force in the economic development of our country an indispensable part. But at present, the transfer of agricultural population life and development of the state, although they work in the town, living and development, and in population statistics is also considered the urban population, but most are unable to get the urban agricultural population transfer the household registration, enjoy the treatment of urban population. Even though some migrant workers get the urban household registration, but their way of life, the concept of consumption, enjoy the social welfare And all the true meaning of the urban population has a significant gap. The transfer of the agricultural population urbanization level is not high, the public is not complete, the essence of urbanization in China is relatively low level of urbanization. Throughout the history of development of world each developed country, urbanization process is an indispensable part of city and country development in the process, at the same time, the level of urbanization can also be seen as one of the important standards of the degree of modernization. From the historical development of western developed countries on the point of view, the agricultural population to non-agricultural population and urbanization is accompanied by the process of city modernization and industrialization simultaneously, with the continuous improvement of the degree of industrialization, in the continuous expansion of city size. In the process of rural labor force gradually from the agricultural production into the city settled, completed the change of life style and identity in western countries. Therefore the rural labor transfer to the city and The process of urbanization is synchronous. And the current situation of our country is special, the rural working population into the city population is obviously divided into two processes, the first is the rural labor population into the city engaged in agricultural production and labor, and settled in the city, but only completed the occupation change, no change complete identity and way of life, and they are inextricably linked. The second processes are transferred out of the labor force based in the city, whose way of life is gradually transformed into the city population and city life style, population identity, so as to complete the whole process of transformation. Because of the particularity of transfer China's rural labor force in the process, resulting in a part of the population has shifted from the countryside to the city, but can not be fully integrated into the city life, not to get the city population The identity on the formation of the current society in a special group, the transfer of agricultural population, the huge number of people, in various sectors of the city, the living conditions and development prospects has become one of the focus of attention of the society. The transfer of agricultural population of people on the development of China's economy will be affected, what is the influence of the principle and mode of action, to promote the transfer of agricultural population of people to what role in China's economic development, how to perfect the policies to promote the process of urbanization in China. The existing research on these problems involved is relatively small, only research mostly from a macro perspective of the economic relationship between people with economic development, or is the lack of in-depth research, not to explain the reasons for the public impact on the economy and the level of mechanism; or using only the set of points Analysis and theoretical research methods and mathematical models without the use of quantitative analysis is not comprehensive and effective to answer these questions. In this paper, according to the theory of economic growth, using the CGE model as the main analysis tool, using two methods of theoretical analysis and simulation research, study on the transfer of the agricultural population of people of the impact of economic development and the mechanism of action, and puts forward some suggestions and ideas to promote China's urbanization process. This paper has obtained some results as following: first, the comprehensive research results, in the study relates to some concepts such as economic growth, urbanization, urbanization human capital, elaborates the concept, consumption and other aspects. The definition focuses on the public were studied in this paper that the complete people have four conditions, divided Don't live in the city, employment in the city, with city residence and life style has the population of the city. And to study the urbanization of urbanization, the impact of consumption and human capital in three aspects, from the existing research results, the public can effectively promote the expansion of the city, accelerate town the process can also significantly promote household average consumption growth, and can promote the whole society's level of human capital. At the same time, urbanization is studied, the consumption level of residents as well as the influence of human capital on economic development, the existing research results have shown that the improvement of the level of urbanization, consumption level and higher level of human capital enhance have obvious effect on promoting the economic development. The research work mainly summarizes the previous research results, clarify concepts, for follow-up research lay A solid theoretical basis. Secondly, according to the theory of economic growth, using the CGE model, reasoning on the influence of human capital on economic development from the theoretical point of view. This part of research from the general form of the CGE model to analysis the common concepts in the CGE model, including the initial intrinsic value, social balance matrix, also elaborated the composition of CGE model equations. By the way of the public construction equation influences on economy are derived from the production module, the behavior of the residents, government behavior perspective, to abstract the actual focus of economic development, the formation of equations. The following study is urbanization of urbanization, consumption from the theoretical point of view, the impact of human capital and economy produced. Through formula derivation and theoretical proof, it is found that people of urbanization, consumption level and overall social human capital level Enhance have stimulative effect. In this part of study, from the perspective of theory demonstrates that urbanization has a promoting effect on the economy of our country. Then, using the CGE model has been established, to model the state of the economy of our country of production module, module module of trade balance segments, reasonable the assignment of the model parameters related to the assignment of the needs of the variables in the model for statistical data using the actual development of China's economy, the construction of China's social accounting matrix, generated for simulation model. Then use the model of the impact of China's economic development has carried on the simulation research in public. The simulation design of the four simulation scenarios, respectively, no people, 2% people of the proportion and degree of the population urbanization is not complete, the public and the ratio of 2% of the population of complete city people, to The public and the ratio of 4%, in order to compare the effects of urbanization, urbanization and urbanization completely different proportion of economic development. The simulation research is divided into two parts: static simulation and dynamic simulation, static simulation of certain aspects of the economy by 2020 of the state, the dynamic simulation of the trend and change every year economic development. Through the study confirmed that the urbanization of urbanization, consumption, human capital and economy have obvious promoting effect, and the higher the degree of urbanization, urbanization is more complete, the effect is more obvious. The education situation in China, the urban and rural economic development and the existing housing two yuan, based on the status quo of social security policy, put forward to improve and promote China's public policy recommendations from the household, income, land, many aspects of education are described. The household registration policy, from the existing household registration system and To reform the household registration system present situation, proposed targeted household registration reform, and strengthen the household registration management function of the floating population, and weaken the other distribution of public resources in the household. Additional income distribution policy, suggestions for the improvement of distribution according to work in the initial distribution proportion, while providing a fair public service for the rural labor force, to improve the competition in the job market. The land policy, the key to establish a sound system of land circulation, ensure rural labor migration to the city to properly dispose of the land they have, to safeguard their own economic interests also can effectively improve the land use efficiency. The suggestions on the education policy, the quality of teaching in rural in ascension as the focus of education in the future, on the one hand, provide adequate quality education for rural left-behind children, on the other hand, the rural labor force Provide technical training to enhance their work skills. Social security policy recommendations, established to protect the rural population transfer system, and perfect the existing social security policy, the transfer of rural population can enjoy social security. It is suggested to establish the employment policy, employment policy system, the coordination of labor market the relationship between supply and demand, breaking the two yuan in urban and rural areas of the labor market, allow the transfer of agricultural population and city population can enjoy the same employment opportunities. The housing policy, the government proposed to provide a certain amount of low rent housing and affordable housing provident fund, expand the coverage and influence, employers work together to solve the housing problems of employees. The transfer of rural population to rural land replacement for city housing, can be used to resolve the transfer of the agricultural population living in towns in the real problem The solution.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F124.1;F323.6
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本文編號：1426308