本文關鍵詞：中國地方政府債務成因、風險及財政收支調(diào)整研究　出處：《中央財經(jīng)大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 地方政府債務 債務風險 財政脆弱性 非對稱性

【摘要】：2008年爆發(fā)全球金融危機以來,我國出臺了積極的財政政策和寬松的貨幣政策,在國家4萬億投資計劃的刺激下,我國地方政府債務規(guī)模急劇膨脹。地方政府債務問題成了當前社會公眾關注的焦點問題和學術研究的熱點問題。從既有研究成果來看,學者們圍繞地方政府債務成因、債務風險與債務管理開展了大量研究,并取得了較為豐富的研究成果。然而,對比國內(nèi)外研究并聯(lián)系我國債務發(fā)展的新形勢,以下四個問題還有待進一步深入研究:(1)改革開放三十多年來,地方政府債務經(jīng)歷了怎樣的發(fā)展歷程?呈現(xiàn)出怎樣的特征?(2)地方政府債務規(guī)模變動成因到底是什么?其影響機理如何?(3)隨著地方債務規(guī)模的急劇膨脹,其引發(fā)的風險到底有多高?如何進行有效的測度?(4)地方財政收支關系如何?財政失衡如何進行調(diào)整?隨著審計署和地方審計部門對地方政府債務數(shù)據(jù)的逐漸公開,為學者們研究以上問題提供了重要的基礎和依據(jù)。基于彌補現(xiàn)有研究的不足,本文以我國地方政府債務形成、發(fā)展、風險及其財政收支調(diào)整為主線,對以上問題進行了探索與剖析,形成如下基本結論:通過對問題(1)的研究表明,如果根據(jù)不同時期我國地方政府在債務內(nèi)容、風險結構及債務規(guī)模的動態(tài)變化情況,可以把改革開放后地方政府債務發(fā)展過程劃分為六個階段:第一階段:初步形成階段,1979-1992年;第二階段:較快增長階段,1993-1997年;第三階段:全面發(fā)展階段,1998-2003年;第四階段:治理與增長并存階段,2004-2008年;第五階段:急劇膨脹階段,2009-2013年;第六階段:全面規(guī)范治理階段,2014年-至今。在地方政府債務形成與發(fā)展過程呈現(xiàn)了三個顯著特征:第一,在債務形成原因方面,債務成因復雜多樣,具有明顯的轉軌經(jīng)濟特征;第二,在債務風險方面,債務風險不斷暴露,突出表現(xiàn)為或有債務直接化,隱形債務顯性化;第三,在債務管理方面,中央制度模糊導致地方政府投資行為異化,債務規(guī)模難于得到有效控制。針對問題(2)的研究,本文側重于制度視角,從財政體制、政治體制及財政政策三個方面對我國地方政府債務成因進行了理論與實證分析。基于財政體制的分析表明,我國地方政府債務形成與發(fā)展的路徑與我國財政制度的安排與變遷緊密相關,尤其是分稅制改革后,財權的上收與事權的下放造成了我國地方政府財政困難,地方政府承擔了大量的本應由中央政府承擔的支出。但2005年以后,隨著公共財政體制的完善及轉移支付制度的規(guī)范,地方政府財政狀況得到明顯改善,從支出權的角度看,地方政府財權與事權并不存在明顯的不匹配問題。因此,地方政府巨額債務的積累已經(jīng)不能完全從財政體制方面得到充分地解釋。基于政治體制的分析表明,我國財政分權下的政治集權體制是我國地方政府債務規(guī)模不斷膨脹的重要原因。在單一政治體制下,地方政府官員的仕途取決于上級政府。在以gdp為核心的政績考核體系下,為了政治上的晉升,地方政府間展開了進行激烈的gdp競賽,通過債務融資進行公共投資以拉動gdp增長成為地方政府競爭的基本手段。而且,我國投融資制度不健全,在現(xiàn)行法律和制度環(huán)境下,地方政府面臨上級政府、選民與債權人的軟預算約束,地方政府投資不斷擴張,債務風險不斷積累。在實施財政政策的過程中,中央政府將大量的經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定職能賦予地方政府是地方政府債務規(guī)模不斷膨脹的另一重要原因。中央政府為了自身利益最大化,將財政穩(wěn)定職能分配給地方政府。在財政分權與政治集權環(huán)境下,地方政府為了自身政治利益與經(jīng)濟利益大規(guī)模舉債以進行公共投資,而將債務融資的負擔推給下屆政府,我國地方政府債務規(guī)模在短視政府的博弈中不斷增長。通過采用雙固定效應空間杜賓模型的實證分析結果表明:第一,從地方政府債務規(guī)模的空間滯后項系數(shù)上看,出于政績競賽思維,地方政府對臨近地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長率較為敏感,債務規(guī)模的變動也更容易受鄰近地區(qū)的影響,當本地在以gdp為主要指標的政績競賽中落后時,對外地政府債務變動的反應系數(shù)為0.705,而當本地在政績競賽中領先時,該系數(shù)為0.322。因此,基于政績考核下的政府競爭是地方政府債務規(guī)模不斷擴張的重要原因。第二,就解釋變量系數(shù)而言,財政分權、城鎮(zhèn)化水平以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結構都對地方政府債務規(guī)模的變動有正向推動作用。而各地財政透明度與地方政府債務變動呈顯著的反向變動關系。第三,在解釋變量空間滯后項回歸系數(shù)看:本地政府債務規(guī)模易受到臨近地區(qū)的財政分權、城鎮(zhèn)化水平以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的的正向影響。針對問題(3)的研究,本文依據(jù)審計部門公布的相關數(shù)據(jù),對我國地方政府債務的直接風險和引致風險進行了評估�；诔Ｒ�(guī)評價指標如負債率、債務率以及償債率對地方政府債務的直接風險的評估表明,我國地方政府負債率如果以25%為地方政府負債率警戒線的上限的話,2009年至今,我國地方政府債務規(guī)模一直處于警戒線以上。分省份看,截止到2013年底,在30個省份中,只有6各地區(qū)的的負債率位于25%水平以下外,基本分布在東部發(fā)達地區(qū),中部地區(qū)以及東北三省的債務負擔水平普遍處于25%-40%之間,而全國債務率較高的省份基本位于經(jīng)濟欠發(fā)達的西部地區(qū)�？梢�,我國地方政府債務局部區(qū)域風險偏高。如果僅以地方公共財政收入計算地方財力,我國地方政府債務率2009年開始突破了150%的警戒線。如果把預算外收入和政府性基金收入納入地方財力的話,我國地方政府債務率還保持在150%的警戒線以內(nèi)。如果按地方公共財政收入測算償債率,2014年總債務的償債率為30.02%,政府負有償還責任的債務償債率約為28.88%,二者都超過了20%的國際警戒線。如果按照地方總收入計算債務率,2014年總債務償債率約為20.05%,政府負有償還責任的債務償債率約為19.29%,也已接近20%的警戒線。除了現(xiàn)實償債風險外,過高的地方政府債務規(guī)模,會帶來政府公共債務規(guī)模的激增,從而增加財政脆弱性,使得財政政策不可持續(xù)。地方政府債務會掣肘國家宏觀經(jīng)濟政策。本文結合公共債務動態(tài)模型,在區(qū)分結構性成分和周期性成分基礎上,提出一種評估財政脆弱性的新方法。利用該方法研究表明,2008以來,為應對全球性金融危機對我國經(jīng)濟的沖擊,大量地方政府債務的不斷增加,財政收支結構矛盾進一步突出,使得財政脆弱性進入了一個新的高度。如果將脆弱度指數(shù)的均值加上一個標準差之和作為“極度脆弱”的臨界值,那么2009年至今我國財政就一直處于“極度脆弱”狀態(tài)。因此,應進一步控制債務規(guī)�？偭亢统嘧忠�(guī)模,避免我國財政出現(xiàn)流動性和償債能力風險。綜上研究表明,無論從償債能力,還是對宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的影響來看,地方政府債務風險已經(jīng)比較嚴重,債務風險化解亟待解決。針對問題(4)的研究,本文認為我國地方財政收支關系會受到生產(chǎn)力發(fā)展水平、市場化程度和財政體制改革等諸因素的影響。進一步的實證研究表明,1978-1993年,地方財政收支呈現(xiàn)相互影響關系,滿足“同步”假說,1994-2014年存在“以支定收”的單向因果關系,研究表明這種財政調(diào)整模式對經(jīng)濟增長更為有利(alesinaandperotti,1996;agnelloetal.,2014)。在1994-2014年樣本期間,利用非線性自回歸分布滯后模型(nardl)模型還檢驗出了地方財政支出對地方財政收入具有非對稱調(diào)整特征。即地方財政支出每上升1%,會引起地方財政收入上升3.974%;而地方財政支出每下降1%,則會引起地方財政收入下降5.721%。這意味著地方財政支出對財政收入的負向變動的影響更大。本文認為財政收支非對稱調(diào)整的原因在于經(jīng)濟周期的非對稱、政府對待財政失衡的不同態(tài)度、納稅人對稅收變化的敏感性不同以及稅種對宏觀經(jīng)濟的敏感程度不同。本文的創(chuàng)新之處主要體現(xiàn)在:第一,在地方政府債務成因研究方面,本文考慮了地方政府的舉債行為所產(chǎn)生的顯著空間效應,并采用了兩區(qū)制雙固定效應空間杜賓模型識別出了地方政府債務融資的空間溢出效應。研究表明:當本地政府在政績競賽中落后時,對外地政府債務變動的反應系數(shù)較領先時更為敏感。第二,在財政風險的測度方面,不僅利用常規(guī)的債務風險判斷指標(如債務率、負債率以及償債率)對地方政府債務的直接風險進行了研究,同時還在區(qū)分周期性預算與結構預算基礎上,通過構建財政脆弱性指標來識別地方政府債務的引致風險,即包括地方政府債務在內(nèi)的債務規(guī)模的不斷增加對財政政策可持續(xù)性產(chǎn)生的影響。這有利于政府全面把握地方政府債務風險,為宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的制定與調(diào)整提供幫助。第三,考慮到宏觀經(jīng)濟變量間的非線性特征的存在,本文采用了非線性ARDL模型對我國改革開放以來的地方財政收支關系進行了檢驗,并識別出在分稅制改革后,我國地方財政失衡調(diào)整具有非對稱調(diào)整的特征。并從經(jīng)濟周期的非對稱、政府對待財政失衡的不同態(tài)度、納稅人對稅收變化的不同敏感性以及稅種對宏觀經(jīng)濟的不同敏感程度等四方面進行了原因解釋。這對于控制財政赤字,防范債務風險具有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 outbreak of the global financial crisis, China has introduced a proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy in the national 4 trillion plans to stimulate investment, local government debt scale in China. The rapid expansion of local government debt issues become the focus of the current public concern hot issues and academic research of the existing research. Results, scholars around the origin of local government debt, debt risk and debt management to carry out a lot of research, and have made abundant achievements. However, compared with domestic and foreign research and the new situation in China debt development, the following four problems need to be further studied: (1) thirty years of reform and opening up the local government debt, experienced how the development process? Show how? (2) what is the change in the size of local government debt causes? Its impact mechanism (3) with? The rapid expansion of the scale of local debt, the risk caused by how high? How to carry out effective measures? (4) how the local fiscal revenue fiscal imbalance relationship? How to adjust? With the audit office and local audit department of the local government debt data gradually open, provides the foundation and basis for the research scholars more than compensate for the lack of existing research. Based on the development of this form, with China's local government debt risk, and fiscal adjustment, the above problems are explored and analyzed, the conclusions are as follows: Based on the problem by (1) study shows that if according to the different period of China's local government debt the dynamic changes of content, structure and size of the debt risk, the local government debt after the reform and opening up the development process is divided into six stages: the first stage: the initial stage, 1979-1992 Years; the second stage: rapid growth stage, 1993-1997 years; the third stage: the stage of comprehensive development, 1998-2003; the fourth stage: the coexistence of governance and growth stage, 2004-2008 years; the fifth stage: the rapid expansion phase, 2009-2013 years; the sixth stage: a comprehensive governance stage since 2014. With the development process had three significant characteristics formed in the local government debt causes: first, in terms of debt, debt causes are complex and diverse, with obvious characteristics of transition economy; second, the debt risk, debt outstanding performance is constantly exposed to the risk of debt or direct contact, explicit debt; third in debt management, the fuzzy system the local government investment behavior alienation, the size of the debt is difficult to be controlled. In order to solve the problem (2) of the study, this paper focuses on the perspective of the system, from the financial system, political system and financial policies of the three party Facing the causes of China's local government debt through the theoretical and empirical analysis. The analysis shows that the financial system is based on the arrangement and change the path of formation and development of China's local government debt and the fiscal system of China are closely related, especially after the tax system reform, decentralization of powers and taking the result of local government financial difficulties I in China, the local government has undertaken a lot of the central government should bear the expenses. But after 2005, with the improvement of the transfer payment system and public finance system norms, local government financial situation improved significantly, from the perspective of spending power, local government financial authority and powers does not exist, not obvious. Therefore, local the government has accumulated huge debts can not be fully explained from the financial system. Based on the analysis of political system shows that, under fiscal decentralization in China Politics Centralized system is an important reason for the local government debt scale in China expanding. In a single political system, local government officials of the career depends on the higher levels of government. In the GDP as the core of the performance evaluation system, to promote the political, local government launched a fierce competition for GDP, through debt financing public investment to boost GDP growth has become the basic method of local government competition. Moreover, China's investment and financing system is not perfect, in the current legal and institutional environment, local governments face higher levels of government, the soft budget constraint of voters and creditors, local government investment expansion, debt risks continue to accumulate. In the process of the implementation of fiscal policy the central government will, the function of economic stability a lot of local government is another important reason of local government debt scale expanding. The central government in order to maximize their own interests, The financial stability function assigned to the local government. In the fiscal decentralization and political centralization environment, local government debt to large-scale public investment for their own political and economic interests, and the burden of debt financing will be pushed to the next government, China's local government debt scale growing in game short-sighted government. Through empirical analysis by fixed effect spatial Durbin model results show that: first, a coefficient from the point of view of local government debt scale spatial lag, competition for political thinking, the local government is sensitive to the rate of economic growth of neighboring region, the size of the debt changes are more easily influenced by the neighboring regions, when local backward with GDP as a main index the performance of the competition, the government debt to change reaction coefficient is 0.705, and when the local leader in the performance competition, the coefficient of 0.322. because of this, based on the government The performance evaluation of government competition is an important reason for the local government debt scale expansion. Second, as the explanatory variable coefficient, fiscal decentralization, changes in the level of urbanization and industrial structure are on the scale of local government debt has a positive role in promoting. Throughout the fiscal transparency and local government debt changes significantly reverse changes in the relationship. Third and lag regression coefficients in the explanatory variable space: the local government debt scale in vulnerable areas close to the fiscal decentralization, the level of urbanization and industrial structure positive influence. Aiming at the problem of (3) research, data released on the basis of the audit department, directly risk and risk caused on the debt of local government in China is evaluated. The conventional evaluation indicators such as the debt ratio based on the debt ratio and debt service ratio directly on risk assessment of local government debt that China's local government If the debt ratio to 25% for the local government debt ceiling rate warning line of words, since 2009, the local government debt scale in China has been in a line above. The look of the provinces by the end of 2013, in 30 provinces, only 6 of the region's debt ratio is below 25%, the basic distribution in the eastern region, central region and the northeast of the debt burden level is generally in the range of 25%-40%, while the national debt rate higher provinces basically located in the underdeveloped western regions. Therefore, China's local government debt risk of local area high. If only by local public finance revenue in local finance, China's local government debt rate in 2009 to break the warning line of 150%. If the budget income and income from government funds into the local financial resources, China's local government debt is still growing at a rate of 150% of the cordon. If the local public finance revenue debt rate, 2014 total debt repayment rate is 30.02%, the government bears the responsibility to repay the debt repayment rate is about 28.88%, two more than 20% of the international warning line. If the total income calculated in accordance with the local debt rate, 2014 total debt repayment rate is about 20.05%, the government bears the responsibility to repay the debt repayment rate is about 19.29%, has nearly 20% of the cordon. In addition to the real risk of debt is too high, the size of local government debt, will bring a surge in the size of the public debt of the government, so as to increase the financial fragility, the fiscal policy is not sustainable. The local government debt constraints of national macroeconomic policies. Combining the public the debt dynamic model, the distinction between structural components and periodic components of the foundation, proposed a new method to assess the financial fragility. Based on this method shows that, since 2008, in response to the full The impact of global financial crisis on China's economy, the increasing number of local government debt, fiscal expenditure structure further highlight the contradiction, the financial fragility has entered into a new height. If the average vulnerability index plus one standard deviation as a "critical value fragile", so since 2009 China's finance has been in a very fragile state. Therefore, we should further control the size of the total debt and the size of the deficit, to avoid China's financial liquidity and solvency risk. In conclusion, in terms of solvency, or the impact on macro economic policy, local government debt risk has been more serious, debt risk resolve to be solved. In order to solve the problem (4) of the study, this paper argues that China's local finance relations will be the development of productive forces, the degree of marketization and the reform of the financial system. Influence of various factors. Further research shows that 1978-1993, showing the interaction between the local fiscal revenue and expenditure, to meet the "synchronization" hypothesis, 1994-2014 "to support fixed income one-way causal relationship, studies show that the fiscal adjustment mode of economic growth is more favorable (alesinaandperotti, 1996; agnelloetal., 2014). During the 1994-2014 sample, using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (nardl model) is a test of local fiscal expenditure has the characteristics of asymmetric adjustment of local fiscal revenue. The local fiscal expenditure increased by 1%, will cause the local fiscal revenue increased by 3.974%; and local fiscal expenditure decreased by 1% each, will cause the local fiscal revenue this means that the decline of 5.721%. effect of local fiscal expenditure on fiscal revenue negative changes greater. This paper argues that fiscal balance of asymmetric adjustment because of the economic cycle Non symmetrical period, different attitudes towards government fiscal imbalances, the sensitivity of taxpayers to tax changes and tax on the different sensitivity of macro economy. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in: first, in the study of the causes of local government debt, considering the significant spatial effect generated by the behavior of local government debt, and the identification of the two district fixed effect spatial Durbin model the spatial spillover effect of local government debt financing. The study shows that when the local government performance in the backward race, foreign government debt changes the reaction coefficient ahead is more sensitive. Second, in the measure of financial risk, not only by the debt risk index for judging the conventional (such as debt ratio, debt ratio and debt ratio) direct risk of local government debt is studied, at the same time also distinguish between cyclical and budget Based on the structure of the budget, to identify local government debt risk caused by constructing financial vulnerability indicators, including local government debt, the debt increasing impact on the sustainability of fiscal policy. This helps the government to comprehensively grasp the local government debt risk, to provide help for the formulation and adjustment of macroeconomic policies. Third, considering the nonlinear characteristics between macroeconomic variables exist, this paper adopts nonlinear ARDL model of China's reform and opening up of the local financial revenue and expenditure were identified in the test, and after the tax reform, characteristics of China's local fiscal imbalance adjustment with asymmetric adjustment. And from the asymmetric economic cycle the government, different attitudes toward fiscal imbalances, four of taxpayers to tax changes are different in sensitivity and taxes on the macro economy different sensitive degree The reason is explained, which is of great significance to control the fiscal deficit and to prevent the debt risk.

【學位授予單位】：中央財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F812.5
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本文編號：1392532