本文關(guān)鍵詞：高集約化農(nóng)區(qū)投入減量化與低環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的土地利用系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)--理論與模式　出處：理論與模式　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 土地利用系統(tǒng) 投入減量化 低環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 高集約化農(nóng)區(qū) 可持續(xù)土地利用 青浦區(qū)

【摘要】：過去三十多年來,中國普遍實(shí)行的高投入產(chǎn)出、高利用強(qiáng)度的集約化農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用模式,在提高了土地收益和保障糧食安全的同時(shí)也導(dǎo)致了嚴(yán)重的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題。因此,高集約化農(nóng)區(qū)同時(shí)也是高環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的區(qū)域。未來十年,高集約化的農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用方式既面臨著糧食不斷增產(chǎn)的客觀需求,又面臨著生態(tài)環(huán)境逐步惡化的現(xiàn)實(shí)挑戰(zhàn)。探討立足于高投入產(chǎn)出條件下如何減少過量投入及降低環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已成為現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展和可持續(xù)土地利用領(lǐng)域的重要課題。本文擬從土地利用系統(tǒng)的角度出發(fā),系統(tǒng)解析集約農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用過程中物質(zhì)輸入。輸出特征、遷移轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)律,以及由此引發(fā)的農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境問題。在此基礎(chǔ)上,研究探索高集約化農(nóng)區(qū)土地利用系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)的理論與方法體系,結(jié)合上海市青浦區(qū)的案例研究,嘗試構(gòu)建投入減量化的、良性循環(huán)的、低環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可持續(xù)土地利用模式。主要研究結(jié)論如下：(1)初步提出了基于物質(zhì)流調(diào)控理論的農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)的理論框架。本研究依據(jù)物質(zhì)流分析(material flow analysis, MFA),以投入減量化與低環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為目標(biāo),構(gòu)建了物質(zhì)流調(diào)控理論,詳細(xì)闡釋了該理論的內(nèi)涵、設(shè)計(jì)原則與目標(biāo)、設(shè)計(jì)內(nèi)容與評(píng)價(jià)準(zhǔn)則、設(shè)計(jì)模式及其圖式和設(shè)計(jì)方法,并以青浦區(qū)開展了應(yīng)用研究,從農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用系統(tǒng)分析與效應(yīng)評(píng)價(jià),農(nóng)戶土地利用模式優(yōu)化,土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化與空間分區(qū)防控和高集約化農(nóng)區(qū)可持續(xù)農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用模式的耦合集成4個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了分析、調(diào)控與設(shè)計(jì)。結(jié)果表明,基于物質(zhì)流調(diào)控理論,可滿足構(gòu)建投入減量化的、良性循環(huán)的、低環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可持續(xù)土地利用模式的實(shí)踐要求。(2)農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用系統(tǒng)分析與效應(yīng)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果對(duì)青浦區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了全面分析,首先分析了不同投入要素對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值增長的影響及其環(huán)境的潛在危害,然后分別從氮足跡與灰水足跡、土地利用效率、環(huán)境效率的角度評(píng)估農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用過程的投入產(chǎn)出效率及其環(huán)境效應(yīng),在此基礎(chǔ)上評(píng)估了物質(zhì)減量化及環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低潛勢(shì)。結(jié)果表明：①農(nóng)業(yè)播種面積和化肥對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度為最顯著的兩個(gè)因素,提高土地利用效率成為緩解青浦區(qū)耕地資源緊缺的重要途徑。②青浦區(qū)活性氮排放和灰水足跡存在顯著的時(shí)空差異性,以高氮肥投入為特征的農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用模式,嚴(yán)重影響了農(nóng)業(yè)環(huán)境質(zhì)量。優(yōu)化土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)、科學(xué)適量的氮肥投入模式和增加技術(shù)投入,提高氮素利用效率應(yīng)成為青浦區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化與調(diào)整的重點(diǎn)途徑。③基于經(jīng)典DEA分析,青浦區(qū)各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)(街道)土地利用綜合效率、土地利用技術(shù)效率和純技術(shù)效率呈空間分異性和隨時(shí)間波動(dòng)的態(tài)勢(shì),青浦區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用純技術(shù)效率的提升,是青浦區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用綜合效率提高的關(guān)鍵。青浦區(qū)需要在保持和穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)適度規(guī)模經(jīng)營的同時(shí),重點(diǎn)提升農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用管理水平,推廣和普及農(nóng)業(yè)新技術(shù),嚴(yán)格控制土地的粗放和低效使用,以提高純技術(shù)效率。④結(jié)合氮足跡、灰水足跡指標(biāo),采用非期望產(chǎn)出的SBM模型窗式分析方法,構(gòu)建物質(zhì)減量化潛力與污染物減排潛力、物質(zhì)的潛在縮減規(guī)模和污染物的潛在縮減規(guī)模模型。2006-2013年,青浦區(qū)勞動(dòng)力、肥料和機(jī)械動(dòng)力的物質(zhì)減量化潛力的年均值分別為32.21%,25.70%和38.21%；灰水足跡和污染氮足跡的年均減排潛力分別為32.18%12.32%。全區(qū)年均人力、肥料和機(jī)械動(dòng)力的潛在縮減總量分別為8104人,4501.59t,27928.44kw：污染氮足跡和灰水足跡的潛在減排總量分別為381.04t,52046.88萬m3。(3)農(nóng)戶土地利用模式優(yōu)化以青浦區(qū)稻麥典型種植模式為例,采用TechnoGIN模型,對(duì)當(dāng)前的農(nóng)戶土地利用情景進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境效應(yīng)評(píng)價(jià)；在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過構(gòu)建氮效率和土地利用綜合收益指標(biāo),確定土地利用優(yōu)化方案及匹配政策與管理措施。結(jié)果表明,推廣應(yīng)用精細(xì)養(yǎng)分管理的適度規(guī)模經(jīng)營模式是青浦區(qū)構(gòu)建農(nóng)戶尺度投入減量化與低環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可持續(xù)土地利用模式的關(guān)鍵。農(nóng)業(yè)政策的制定需向適度規(guī)模經(jīng)營農(nóng)戶中采取增加補(bǔ)貼的方式,彌補(bǔ)因人力和資源要素投入成本過高而產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)收益不足。(4)土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化與空間分區(qū)防控①以水資源保護(hù)和非點(diǎn)源污染控制為目標(biāo),采用灰色線性規(guī)劃模型對(duì)研究區(qū)域土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化,2020年青浦區(qū)土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化方案下經(jīng)濟(jì)效益可比2012年增加28.12%,同時(shí)減少了總氮、總磷的輸出169.08t/a和79.83-a,降幅分別為10.96%、41.33%,有效降低了非點(diǎn)源污染風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。②采用最小累積阻力模型,構(gòu)建區(qū)域空間分區(qū)防控模型,依據(jù)各土地利用類型的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)服務(wù)價(jià)值和非點(diǎn)源污染輸出負(fù)荷,構(gòu)建不同土地利用類型阻力系數(shù),在此基礎(chǔ)上,劃設(shè)水資源保育區(qū)、水資源重點(diǎn)防護(hù)區(qū)、非點(diǎn)源污染一般阻控區(qū)、非點(diǎn)源污染中等阻控區(qū)及非點(diǎn)源污染重點(diǎn)阻控區(qū),并針對(duì)不同分區(qū)提出具有針對(duì)性的措施,從土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)和景觀格局進(jìn)行了土地利用系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)與調(diào)控。研究表明,基于水資源保護(hù)和非點(diǎn)源污染阻控的區(qū)域分區(qū)調(diào)控機(jī)制是有效解決非點(diǎn)源污染遷移和保護(hù)水資源的途徑之一。(5)高集約化農(nóng)區(qū)可持續(xù)農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用模式的耦合集成運(yùn)用物質(zhì)流分析和系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法,建立集約農(nóng)業(yè)土地利用耦合系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型。量化分析農(nóng)出、畜牧及水產(chǎn)等子系統(tǒng)的物質(zhì)流動(dòng)過程；以氮素為主線,模擬氮的自然、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)效應(yīng),預(yù)測未來的演化趨勢(shì),進(jìn)而制定優(yōu)化調(diào)控方案。2020年,基準(zhǔn)情景下青浦區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)能力已不能滿足當(dāng)?shù)厝丝趯?duì)肉類及水產(chǎn)品氮的需求。優(yōu)化情景下,化肥氮投入減少了53.75%,且系統(tǒng)氮生產(chǎn)滿足了當(dāng)?shù)爻Ｗ∪丝诘南M(fèi)需要,減少產(chǎn)品氮區(qū)外進(jìn)口量2245.16t,優(yōu)化情景下系統(tǒng)氮綜合循環(huán)效率提高至25.54%,通過淋溶和徑流分析,系統(tǒng)對(duì)水環(huán)境的影響進(jìn)一步降低。該優(yōu)化耦合方案在保證農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)的同時(shí)較好地保護(hù)了當(dāng)?shù)厣鷳B(tài)環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:Over the past thirty years, China generally implemented high input output, high utilization strength of intensive agricultural land use pattern, improve the land income and food security also led to serious environmental problems. Therefore, agriculture, high intensive farming areas and high environmental risk areas. The next ten years, set high use of agricultural land intensive is facing the objective demand for grain yield and continue to challenge the gradual deterioration of the ecological environment. Based on the study of high input and output under the conditions of how to reduce excessive investment and reduce environmental risk has become the development of modern agriculture and sustainable land use an important topic in the field. This paper proceeds from the land use system the angle of system analysis in the process of land use intensive agricultural material input. Output characteristics, migration and transformation laws, and the problems of agricultural environment . based on the research of high intensive farming areas of land use system theory and method of system design, combined with the case study of Qingpu District of Shanghai City, try to construct the input reduction, a virtuous cycle of the sustainable land use pattern of low environmental risk. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) put forward the agricultural land the theoretical framework of material flow control system design based on the theory. On the basis of material flow analysis (material flow, analysis, MFA), with the input reduction and low environmental risk as the goal, build the material flow control theory, explains the connotation of the theory, design principles and design objectives, contents and evaluation criteria design, model and schema and design method, taking Qingpu district to carry out applied research, from the analysis and evaluation system and the effect of agricultural land use, household land use pattern optimization, land use structure optimization The analysis and prevention and control of space partition and high intensive farming areas of sustainable agricultural land use pattern of the integrated 4 aspects, regulation and design. The results show that based on the material flow control theory, which can meet the construction investment reduction, a virtuous cycle of the practice mode of sustainable land use and low environmental risk. (2) of agricultural land use system analysis and effect evaluation of the results of a comprehensive analysis of the system of agricultural land use in Qingpu District, first analyzes the different input factors on potential hazards affecting agricultural output growth and its environment, and then from the nitrogen footprint and grey water footprint, land use efficiency, environmental efficiency assessment of agricultural land use process the input-output efficiency and its effect on the environment, on the basis of the evaluation of material reduction and environmental risk reduction potential. The results indicate that: agricultural acreage and production Grey fertilizer on agricultural production of the two most significant factors, improve land use efficiency has become an important way to alleviate the shortage of cultivated land resources in Qingpu district. The Qingpu District of reactive nitrogen emissions and grey water footprint shows significant spatio-temporal difference, with high nitrogen fertilizer inputs of agricultural land use pattern, serious influence the agricultural environmental quality. The optimized land use structure, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer and scientific model to increase the technical inputs, improve nitrogen use efficiency should be the key way to optimize and adjust the system of agricultural land use in Qingpu district was analyzed. Based on the classic DEA, the township (street) Qingpu District comprehensive efficiency of land use, land use efficiency and pure technical the efficiency of a spatial and time fluctuation trend, Qingpu district agricultural land use to enhance the pure technical efficiency is improved, the Qingpu District Agricultural Comprehensive Land Use Efficiency The key. Qingpu needs to steadily promote the appropriate scale of operation at the same time maintain and focus on enhancing the management level of agricultural land use, promotion and popularization of new agricultural technology, strict control of land extensive and inefficient use, in order to improve the pure technical efficiency. The combination of nitrogen footprint, grey water footprint index, using SBM model undesirableoutputs window the analysis method of construction material reduction potential and pollutant emission reduction potential, the potential to reduce the size of material and pollutant reduction potential scale model of.2006-2013 years, Qingpu district labor force, average value of fertilizer and mechanical power dematerialization potential were 32.21%, 25.70% and 38.21%; the average annual emission reduction potential of grey water footprint and nitrogen pollution footprint are 32.18%12.32%. the annual average human, fertilizer and mechanical power potential reduction of the total was 8104, 4501.59t, 27928.44kw: the pollution of nitrogen footprint and ash water foot The total emission reduction potential traces were 381.04t, 520 million 468 thousand and 800 m3. (3) model of farmer's land use optimization District in Qingpu rice wheat cropping pattern of typical cases, using TechnoGIN model to evaluate the economic - environmental effects of land use current situation of farmers; on this basis, through the construction of nitrogen efficiency and land use comprehensive benefit index to determine the land use optimization scheme and matching policy and management measures. The results show that the application of site-specific nutrient management of moderate scale management mode is building in Qingpu District of sustainable land use patterns of rural household investment key reduction and low environmental risk. The development of agricultural policy to moderate scale farmers to increase subsidies to make up for due to the high cost of human resources and economic benefits. (4) the optimization of land use structure and the prevention and control of water resources in space partition The source of the protection and control of non-point source pollution as the goal, using grey linear programming model to optimize the land use structure in the study area, structure optimization scheme can increase the economic benefits of land use in 2020 than in 2012 28.12% in Qingpu District, while reducing the total nitrogen, total phosphorus output of 169.08t/a and 79.83-a, the decline was 10.96%, 41.33%, effectively reduce the the risk of non-point source pollution. The minimum cumulative resistance model, the construction of regional spatial zoning control model based on different types of land use ecosystem service value and non-point source pollution load, the construction of different land use types of drag coefficient, on this basis, the designation of water resource conservation areas, water resources key protection zone non point source pollution control in general area, non-point source pollution control district secondary and non-point source pollution control key area, and to different partitions to propose targeted measures, from the soil The design of land use regulation and system structure and landscape use. The study shows that the regional zoning regulation mechanism of water resource protection and non-point source pollution control based on source pollution is one of the ways of migration and protection of water resources to solve the non effective. (5) high intensive flow dynamics analysis method and system coupling the use of integrated material model of sustainable agricultural land use in agricultural areas, the establishment of agricultural land use coupled system dynamics model. The quantitative analysis of the intensive agricultural, animal husbandry and fishery material flow subsystem; with nitrogen as the main line, the simulation of nitrogen in natural, economic and social effects, predicting the future evolution trend, and establish the optimal adjustment scheme.2020, the baseline scenario and agricultural production capacity in Qingpu district could not satisfy the need of meat and aquatic products demand of the local population. Nitrogen optimization scenario, nitrogen fertilizer input is reduced by 53.75 %, and nitrogen production to meet the consumption needs of the local resident population, reduce nitrogen outside the region imports 2245.16t, optimization scenario system nitrogen circulation efficiency is improved to 25.54%, through the analysis of leaching and runoff, influence on water environment is further reduced. The optimal coupling scheme in ensuring agricultural production targets at the same time better to protect the local ecological environment.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2
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本文編號(hào)：1365735