本文關鍵詞：政策扶持、資源錯配與產(chǎn)能過剩　出處：《清華大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 非均衡信貸擴張 金融危機 資源錯配 產(chǎn)能過剩 政策扶持

【摘要】：本文研究了2001至2013年中國對某些行業(yè)的政策扶持,以及與之相關的資源錯配和產(chǎn)能過剩問題。中國長期以來傾向于支持某些特定行業(yè),始于2008年底的“4萬億”計劃是逆周期政策干預最典型的一個案例。中國的各個行業(yè)可以分成兩個部門,一個部門符合中央政府或者地方政府的多元發(fā)展目標,因而受到較多的政策扶持和補貼,由于資源總量有限,另一個部門受到的扶持就比較少。本文通過一個理論模型提出,在金融危機之前政策扶持對這批行業(yè)發(fā)展有利,中央及地方政府也能夠從行業(yè)優(yōu)先發(fā)展中獲益,扶持未必加重資源錯配。但金融危機帶來的市場環(huán)境惡化,使行業(yè)與政府之間存在利益目標不一致的可能,政府基于自身利益最大化的理性決策可能對行業(yè)發(fā)展不利,進而加劇資源錯配。本文首先研究了2001-2013年行業(yè)層面的工業(yè)企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)。實證結(jié)果表明,資源錯配給工業(yè)產(chǎn)出帶來了大約11%的缺口。2008-2009年間,政策扶持使被扶持行業(yè)整體比最優(yōu)配置水平下的資本存量高出23.1%,總額大約1.46萬億元。金融危機與政策扶持的交互作用加劇了資源錯配。行業(yè)層面的回歸分析表明,受扶持行業(yè)日益嚴重的資源配置扭曲不僅僅是經(jīng)濟周期的自然表現(xiàn),政策扶持在其中的作用至關重要�！�4萬億”在2009-2010年拉動了制造業(yè)的需求,短期內(nèi)改善了各行業(yè),尤其是受扶持行業(yè)的盈利。但這種拉動同時使得受扶持行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能進一步增長,在“4萬億”作用消退之后,產(chǎn)能過剩逐漸成為阻礙受扶持行業(yè)盈利增長的主要原因。資源錯配不僅來自政策直接扶持,還來自間接的扶持。政府長期以來的基建投資傾向,增大了對受扶持行業(yè)的需求。而當基建投資回報率下降后,受扶持行業(yè)的利潤下降就更為嚴重,超過了經(jīng)濟周期的自然下降。微觀層面的上市企業(yè)分析進一步驗證了上述結(jié)論。對上市企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的實證檢驗結(jié)果表明,金融危機前,政策扶持有利于企業(yè)的盈利上升,2001-2007年間,政策扶持使得受扶持企業(yè)資產(chǎn)回報率上升1%,金融危機之后政策扶持的效果則相反,拉低企業(yè)資產(chǎn)回報率的幅度分別為1.7%(2008-2009)和2.0%(2010-2013)。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the policy support for some industries in China from 2001 to 2013, and the problem of mismatching of resources and overcapacity. China has long been inclined to support certain industries, and the "4 trillion" program, which began at the end of 2008, is the most typical case of counter cyclical policy intervention. All sectors of China can be divided into two sectors. One sector is in line with the multiple development goals of the central government or local governments. Therefore, they are subject to more policy support and subsidies. Due to the limited total resources, the other sector is less supported. Based on a theoretical model, this paper suggests that before the financial crisis, policy support is beneficial to the development of these industries. Central and local governments can also benefit from the priority development of industries, and support does not necessarily aggravate resource mismatches. But the deterioration of the market environment caused by the financial crisis makes the industry and the government have different interests. The rational decision-making based on the maximization of their interests may be unfavorable for the development of the industry, and further exacerbate the resource mismatch. This paper first studies the industrial enterprise data at the 2001-2013 year industry level. The empirical results show that the misallocation of resources has brought about 11% of the gap in industrial output. In the past 2008-2009 years, policy support made the overall capital stock of the supported industry 23.1% higher than the optimal allocation level, with a total of about 1 trillion and 460 billion yuan. The interaction of financial crisis and policy support aggravates the mismatch of resources. The regression analysis at the industry level shows that the increasingly serious resource allocation distortion in the supporting industry is not only the natural manifestation of the business cycle, but also the role of policy support in it. "4 trillion" has led to the demand for manufacturing in the 2009-2010 year, and in the short term it has improved the profits of all industries, especially the support industry. But this pull also increases the capacity of the supporting industries further. After the "4 trillion" effect has subsided, overcapacity has gradually become the main reason that hinders the growth of the profit growth of the support industry. The mismatch of resources is not only from direct policy support, but also from indirect support. The government's long-term investment tendency in infrastructure has increased demand for supported industries. When the rate of return on investment in infrastructure falls, the profit of the support industry is more serious, more than the natural decline in the economic cycle. On the micro level, the analysis of listed companies further verified the above conclusions. The empirical results of listed companies data show that before the financial crisis, policy support is conducive to enterprise's profit rose, 2001-2007 years, policy support makes the support enterprise assets increased by 1% after the financial crisis, the policy support of the opposite effect, lower corporate assets return rate were 1.7% and 2% (2008-2009) (2010-2013).
【學位授予單位】：清華大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F424;F406.7

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