發(fā)布時間：2017-12-28 09:23

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國木材產(chǎn)業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）的構(gòu)建、運行系統(tǒng)及其應(yīng)用價值　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI) 木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI 三螺旋理論

【摘要】：采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(Purchasing Managers' Index,以下簡稱PMI)是對經(jīng)濟周期波動進行監(jiān)測的測度指標,因其先導性、科學性等優(yōu)點被視為經(jīng)濟的晴雨表,并有荒島指數(shù)的美譽。但國家PMI僅僅能大致厘清經(jīng)濟擴張還是收縮,卻無法揭示具體行業(yè)的陰晴。產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI才是衡量百業(yè)興衰的晴雨表。自1929年美國供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會開展PMI指數(shù)調(diào)查以來,產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI也得到了一定發(fā)展,比如底特律的汽車PMI、中國的鋼鐵PMI和化纖PMI。中國國家統(tǒng)計局于2005年開展全國制造業(yè)PMI調(diào)查,也曾對內(nèi)發(fā)布過產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI,但于2013年暫停發(fā)布產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI。中國木材制造業(yè)至今沒有反映行業(yè)興衰走勢的量化指標。本文以木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI為切入口,對產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI進行全方位深度研究,研究內(nèi)容包括產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI問卷的設(shè)計、樣本抽樣選取、指數(shù)合成賦權(quán)以及可持續(xù)發(fā)布PMI的保障運行系統(tǒng),是國內(nèi)首個對產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI開展系統(tǒng)研究的研究。通過實證研究與案例分析相結(jié)合,本文主要有以下幾點發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)為保持與國際通行PMI數(shù)據(jù)的可比性,在問卷設(shè)計上,木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI應(yīng)與通用PMI問卷保持一致,可補充“用電量”、“技改投入”和“銷售額”等行業(yè)關(guān)鍵信息。(2)主成分分析結(jié)果顯示,現(xiàn)有木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI的賦權(quán)存在改進空間,生產(chǎn)、訂單、采購、原材料庫存和雇員分別以20%、25%、20%、20%和15%的賦權(quán)方式合成新木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI更能反映林業(yè)經(jīng)濟的走勢。(3)木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI樣本采用PPS抽樣選定,樣本量初定為384家,分布在造紙、家具、人造板、木地板、建筑用木制品(木門窗木樓梯)、竹產(chǎn)品等6個分產(chǎn)業(yè)中,考慮分行業(yè)、地域、企業(yè)規(guī)模的影響進行樣本分配,在完成初步抽樣之后定期進行動態(tài)調(diào)整。(4)木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI能夠反映出自身行業(yè)的季節(jié)規(guī)律,可用來監(jiān)測逆周期行情并進行預(yù)警,而這是國家PMI無法實現(xiàn)的。(5)木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI調(diào)查問卷中主觀問題可以印證客觀問題的真實性,如原材料的量價走勢可以印證原材料購進價格指數(shù)的正確與否。(6)以三螺旋為基礎(chǔ)的PMI運行系統(tǒng)可以延伸政產(chǎn)學研的功能作用,在木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI乃至其他數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查時能保障數(shù)據(jù)的真實性以及可持續(xù)性。本文對木材產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI的研究方法為產(chǎn)業(yè)PMI的開展提供了基本思路和實踐經(jīng)驗,不同產(chǎn)業(yè)構(gòu)建PMI過程大同小異,但調(diào)查問卷、抽樣方法甚至指數(shù)合成存在明顯的差異。指數(shù)的構(gòu)建并不是一蹴而就、一勞永逸的,需要對其科學性進行系統(tǒng)持續(xù)的跟蹤和動態(tài)調(diào)整,以真實反映當前行業(yè)運行態(tài)勢。但傳統(tǒng)的單線條式數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布模式應(yīng)予以摒棄,開放式的公開數(shù)據(jù)信息交流系統(tǒng)使政產(chǎn)學研充分進行角色互換才是未來發(fā)展趨勢。
[Abstract]:Purchasing Managers'Index (hereinafter referred to as PMI) is a measure index for monitoring the economic cycle fluctuation. Because of its forerunner and scientificity, it is regarded as a barometer of the economy and has the reputation of the desert island index. But PMI can only roughly clarify national economic expansion or contraction, but can not reveal the specific industry or. PMI is the industry barometer will rise and fall. Since the PMI index investigation was carried out in 1929, the industry PMI has also been developed, such as Detroit's automobile PMI, China's steel PMI and chemical fiber PMI. The National Bureau of statistics of China carried out the PMI survey of the national manufacturing industry in 2005, and also published the industrial PMI in the industry, but suspended the industrial PMI in 2013. China's wood manufacturing industry has not reflected the quantitative indicators of the trend of the rise and fall of the industry. In this paper, the timber industry PMI as the entrance, the full range of in-depth study of the PMI industry, PMI industry research includes questionnaire design, sample selection, index weighting and sustainable release PMI synthesis guarantee system, is the first domestic research on PMI system of industry development. Through the combination of empirical research and case analysis, this paper mainly has the following findings: (1) to maintain PMI and international comparability of the data in the questionnaire design, the timber industry PMI should be consistent with the general PMI questionnaire, can supplement the "electricity" and "technological input" and "sales" etc. the key of information industry. (2) principal component analysis shows that there is room for improvement in the empowerment of PMI in the existing timber industry. Production, order, purchase, raw material inventory and employees are weighted by 20%, 25%, 20%, 20% and 15% respectively to form the new timber industry PMI, which can better reflect the trend of forestry economy. (3) the timber industry PMI samples selected by PPS sampling, sample size set for 384, distribution of wood products in paper, furniture, wood-based panels, wood flooring, building (wooden doors and windows, wooden stairs), bamboo products and other 6 sub industries, considering the influence of regional industry, and enterprise scale of sample distribution in the dynamic adjustment, after completion of the initial sampling time. (4) the timber industry PMI can reflect the seasonal rules of its own industry, which can be used to monitor the counter cycle market and carry out early warning, which is not realized by the national PMI. (5) the subjective problems in the PMI questionnaire of wood industry can confirm the authenticity of objective problems, such as the trend of raw material volume and price, which can confirm the correctness of raw material purchase price index. (6) the PMI operation system based on the three helix can extend the function of government industry, University and research. It can ensure the authenticity and sustainability of data in the PMI industry and other data survey. In this paper, the research method of PMI in wood industry provides basic ideas and practical experience for the development of industrial PMI. The PMI process in different industries is very similar, but there are obvious differences between questionnaires, sampling methods and even exponential synthesis. Index is not built overnight and once and for all. We need to systematically track and dynamically adjust its scientificity so as to truly reflect the current operation of the industry. But the traditional single line data publishing mode should be abandoned. The open data and information exchange system will make full play of government industry, University and research roles exchange, that is the future development trend.
【學位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F426.88
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本文編號：1345479