本文關(guān)鍵詞：商業(yè)銀行信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響因素研究　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 信用卡 盈利水平 客戶特征 外部環(huán)境 多元統(tǒng)計(jì)分析 結(jié)構(gòu)方程 系 統(tǒng)動力學(xué)

【摘要】：信用卡是一款高盈利產(chǎn)品,國外信用卡業(yè)務(wù)的資產(chǎn)收益率(ROA)高達(dá)5%以上,遠(yuǎn)高于銀行整體1%左右的資產(chǎn)收益率水平。我國商業(yè)銀行信用卡業(yè)務(wù)自2003年以來快速發(fā)展,但目前國內(nèi)大部分銀行仍處于虧損狀態(tài)。為何我國信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利不足,如何實(shí)現(xiàn)信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利已成為我國商業(yè)銀行迫切需要解決的課題。目前國內(nèi)外在信用卡領(lǐng)域的相關(guān)研究主要圍繞信用卡經(jīng)營模式、收入結(jié)構(gòu)等方面,未能從盈利的根本來源——客戶出發(fā)開展研究,也未能從考慮外部環(huán)境因素的系統(tǒng)論視角出發(fā)研究信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利的創(chuàng)造過程。為此,本文從盈利的根本來源和系統(tǒng)論的視角出發(fā)研究了以下問題:客戶特征如何影響信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平?在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、地區(qū)差異、市場結(jié)構(gòu)、居民消費(fèi)、人口結(jié)構(gòu)等外部環(huán)境下,信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平存在哪些適應(yīng)性變化規(guī)律?從系統(tǒng)論視角,研究在外部環(huán)境、客戶特征的雙因素共同影響下信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平是如何創(chuàng)造的?怎樣才能有效干預(yù)盈利的變動趨勢?本文共分七個(gè)章節(jié),第一章為緒論;第二章為國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究綜述;第三章為客戶特征對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響分析;第四章為客戶特征影響信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型研究。構(gòu)建了客戶人口統(tǒng)計(jì)特征、消費(fèi)行為特征對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平影響的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型,測算出具體客戶特征變量對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響路徑和影響系數(shù);第五章為外部環(huán)境對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響研究。在對我國信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)壟斷程度市場定位下,構(gòu)建了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、地區(qū)差異、市場結(jié)構(gòu)、居民消費(fèi)和人口結(jié)構(gòu)等外部環(huán)境因素對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響網(wǎng)絡(luò),研究發(fā)現(xiàn)了外部環(huán)境對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響規(guī)律;第六章為信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的系統(tǒng)動力模型研究。在客戶特征、外部環(huán)境對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的雙因素影響下,構(gòu)建了信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的系統(tǒng)動力模型,模擬仿真信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的創(chuàng)造機(jī)制,情境分析不同經(jīng)營策略下盈利的變動趨勢;第七章為結(jié)論與展望。本文的主要研究成果如下:(1)針對客戶特征對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響問題,構(gòu)建了一個(gè)關(guān)于客戶人口統(tǒng)計(jì)特征、消費(fèi)行為特征對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平影響的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型。選取商業(yè)銀行103463個(gè)信用卡客戶信息及過去一年的交易記錄作為研究樣本,驗(yàn)證了人口統(tǒng)計(jì)特征和消費(fèi)行為特征對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的直接影響,以及人口統(tǒng)計(jì)特征通過影響消費(fèi)行為對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的間接影響,并測算出具體客戶特征變量對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響路徑和影響系數(shù)。(2)針對外部環(huán)境對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響問題,構(gòu)建了一個(gè)關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、地區(qū)差異、市場結(jié)構(gòu)、居民消費(fèi)和人口結(jié)構(gòu)對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平影響的系統(tǒng)分析網(wǎng)絡(luò)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)我國信用卡市場具有壟斷競爭特征,處于邊際成本大于邊際收益的短期供給過剩階段;信用卡貸款余額、新增授信總額與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平建立了長期穩(wěn)定的正向關(guān)系;地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值與客戶信用卡平均創(chuàng)利水平不完全一致,繪制了信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的地區(qū)分布圖;驗(yàn)證了居民收入、城鄉(xiāng)差距、凈出口、投資、政府支出、撫養(yǎng)壓力對居民消費(fèi)及信用卡消費(fèi)額的影響關(guān)系。(3)基于客戶特征、外部環(huán)境對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的雙因素影響,構(gòu)建了信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的系統(tǒng)動力模型。本文應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)研究方法,建立的CCES系統(tǒng)動力模型考慮了外部環(huán)境、客戶特征對信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的雙因素影響,構(gòu)建了 28個(gè)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行方程和各要素的流圖關(guān)系、參數(shù)關(guān)系。該模型為解明復(fù)雜的信用卡業(yè)務(wù)要素的相關(guān)關(guān)系提供了有效的分析工具。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)我國信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)存在兩個(gè)時(shí)間拐點(diǎn),一個(gè)是2009年出現(xiàn)的增長拐點(diǎn),表現(xiàn)為信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利及各項(xiàng)經(jīng)營指標(biāo)的迅速提升;另一個(gè)是2019年將要出現(xiàn)的下降拐點(diǎn)。目前商業(yè)銀行信用卡業(yè)務(wù)最大的挑戰(zhàn)是如何采取有效措施熨平2019年即將到來的下行拐點(diǎn),平穩(wěn)度過衰退期。本研究為消費(fèi)金融領(lǐng)域的客戶挖掘方法提供了一個(gè)新的思路,為商業(yè)銀行盈利研究提供了一種新的方法,對于完善和推動消費(fèi)金融理論的發(fā)展,彌補(bǔ)系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)在商業(yè)銀行盈利領(lǐng)域的應(yīng)用研究具有很強(qiáng)的理論價(jià)值,對于商業(yè)銀行明確信用卡業(yè)務(wù)的盈利規(guī)律,在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下制定合適的經(jīng)營策略具有理論指導(dǎo)意義和決策參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Credit card is a high profit product, and the ROA of foreign credit card business is over 5%, which is far higher than that of the bank's overall rate of return of about 1%. The credit card business of China's commercial banks has developed rapidly since 2003, but most of the banks in China are still in a state of loss. Why the credit card business in China is not profitable and how to realize the profit of credit card business has become an urgent problem for our commercial banks to solve. The related research of external field of credit card in China mainly around the operating mode of credit card business, income structure, not from the fundamental source of profit -- customers starting to carry out research, creation process also failed to consider the external environment factors from the system theory perspective on the credit card business profit. Therefore, this article from the fundamental source of profit and system perspective to study the following problems: how to influence the customer characteristics of credit card business profitability? In the macro economy, regional differences, market structure, consumption, population structure and external environment, credit card business profitability changes which are adaptive? From the perspective of system theory in the study, two factors of external environment, customer characteristics on credit card business profitability is how to create? How can the effective intervention trend profitable? This thesis consists of seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction; the second chapter is the summary of research at home and abroad; the third chapter is the analysis of influence of customer characteristics on credit card the profitability of business; the fourth chapter is the structural equation model to study the profitability of credit card business customer characteristics influence. To build customer demographics, consumer behavior characteristics of the structural equation affects the profit level of the credit card business model, calculate the specific customer characteristic variables on the credit card business profitability path and influence coefficient; the fifth chapter is the study on the influence of the external environment of the credit card business profit level. In the card industry monopoly market positioning of our credit under the influence of the network construction of macro economy, regional differences, market structure, consumption and population structure and external environmental factors of the credit card business profitability, the study found that influence to the credit card business profit level of the external environment; the sixth chapter is the Research on the system the dynamic model of credit card business profitability. In the customer's characteristics and external environment influences on two factors of profit level of credit card business, and build a system dynamic model of credit card business profitability, profit level simulation of credit card business creation mechanism, situation analysis on the trend of changes in earnings management strategy; the seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect. The main research results are as follows: (1) in view of the impact of customer characteristics on the profitability of credit card business, we constructed a structural equation model on the impact of demographic characteristics and consumer behavior characteristics on the profitability of credit card business. Select the 103463 commercial bank credit card customer information and transaction records of the past year as the research sample, verify the direct influence of demographic characteristics and consumer behavior characteristics of the credit card business profitability, and demographic characteristics indirectly affect the profitability of the business card of credit by influencing consumer behavior, and calculate the specific customer characteristic variables impact on the profitability of credit card business path and influence coefficient. (2) in view of the impact of external environment on the profitability of credit card business, a systematic analysis network about the impact of economic development, regional differences, market structure, residents consumption and population structure on the profitability of credit card business is constructed. The study found that China's credit card market has the characteristics of monopolistic competition, in the short-term oversupply stage marginal cost is greater than marginal revenue; new loans, the total amount of credit and the level of economic development has established long-term stable positive relationship between GDP and credit card; credit card average profit level is not completely consistent, draw the distribution map of credit card business profitability; verify the income gap between urban and rural areas, net exports, investment, government spending, raising pressure card spending on consumption and credit relationship. (3) based on the dual influence of customer characteristics and external environment on the profit level of credit card business, a system dynamic model of the profit level of credit card business is built. In this paper, a dynamic model of CCES system is established by applying the method of system dynamics. Considering the influence of external environment and customer characteristics on the profitability of credit card business, 28 operational equations and flow graph relations and parameter relationships of all elements are constructed. The relationship between the elements of the business card model provides an efficient tool to make clear the complex credit. The study found that there are two turning points in the credit card industry in China, one is the growth inflection point which appeared in 2009, which shows that the profitability of the credit card business and all the business indicators are increasing rapidly. The other is the downward inflection point that will appear in 2019. At present, the biggest challenge for commercial bank credit card business is how to take effective measures to iron down the coming downturn point in 2019 and pass the recession smoothly. Provides a new way for the study of customer consumer finance mining methods, provides a new method for the research of profit of commercial banks, to improve and promote the development of consumer finance theory, research and application of system dynamics in the field of profit for commercial banks has a strong theoretical value and profit for commercial law clear the bank credit card business, in the new normal economy of our country develop appropriate management strategies have theoretical significance and reference value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.2

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王昀柏;在競爭中加快我國信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展——兼論入世對我國信用卡業(yè)的影響及對策[J];中國信用卡;2002年08期

2 樸憲緒;韓國信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展[J];中國信用卡;2002年08期

3 宋娜,聶晶;借鑒信用卡發(fā)展的國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)[J];中國信用卡;2003年04期

4 齊文忠;讓信用卡走進(jìn)大眾生活[J];金卡工程;2004年12期

5 辛云勇;脆弱的信用卡[J];互聯(lián)網(wǎng)周刊;2005年22期

6 李建偉;我國信用卡業(yè)發(fā)展中存在的問題及對策[J];金融會計(jì);2005年07期

7 張小榮;;關(guān)于信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的若干問題[J];中國信用卡;2006年18期

8 徐晶;吳昊;;淺談信用卡在校園的營銷[J];沿海企業(yè)與科技;2006年10期

9 付東;;信用卡盈利模式分析及對信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的思考[J];河南教育學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版);2007年02期

10 董建忠;;淺論信用卡與消費(fèi)文化[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)(下半月);2007年07期

相關(guān)會議論文 前4條

1 徐超;周宗放;;基于多智能體的信用卡信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仿真研究[A];第六屆（2011）中國管理學(xué)年會——系統(tǒng)管理與復(fù)雜性科學(xué)分會場論文集[C];2011年

2 吳佩勛;鄭宗仁;;中國消費(fèi)者申辦信用卡意愿關(guān)鍵因素的實(shí)證研究——以深圳地區(qū)為例[A];中國市場學(xué)會2006年年會暨第四次全國會員代表大會論文集[C];2006年

3 嚴(yán)玉婷;;基于信用卡安全的異動報(bào)警機(jī)制研究[A];第三屆全國軟件測試會議與移動計(jì)算、柵格、智能化高級論壇論文集[C];2009年

4 閆天兵;沈麗;;我國信用卡信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[A];2007環(huán)渤海區(qū)域金融合作發(fā)展研討會論文集[C];2007年

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前10條

1 記者 付秋實(shí);信用卡廣告：緊跟步伐 詮釋變遷[N];金融時(shí)報(bào);2008年

2 本報(bào)記者 孫喜保 實(shí)習(xí)生 關(guān)靜宇;“信用卡”推銷不能讓“信用”打折[N];工人日報(bào);2011年

3 記者 鄭申;《中國信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展藍(lán)皮書(2012)》發(fā)布[N];金融時(shí)報(bào);2013年

4 資深信用卡行業(yè)專家 崔素芳;“虛擬信用卡”或引發(fā)信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)洗牌[N];中國經(jīng)營報(bào);2013年

5 SAS公司大中華區(qū)客戶智能咨詢總監(jiān) 張婉琪;大數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)代信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)怎么玩？[N];金融時(shí)報(bào);2013年

6 記者 鄭申;大數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)代 信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)如何發(fā)展[N];金融時(shí)報(bào);2013年

7 本報(bào)記者 衛(wèi)建萍 本報(bào)通訊員 陳鳳 羅開卷;信用卡：與犯罪的“危險(xiǎn)關(guān)系”[N];人民法院報(bào);2014年

8 記者 溫源;信用卡向中小城市滲透[N];光明日報(bào);2014年

9 中國社科院金融所研究員 楊濤;信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)加強(qiáng)“頂層設(shè)計(jì)”[N];中國證券報(bào);2014年

10 潘登;信用卡：理性發(fā)展才能獲益[N];中國城鄉(xiāng)金融報(bào);2005年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前5條

1 王星;商業(yè)銀行信用卡業(yè)務(wù)盈利水平的影響因素研究[D];大連理工大學(xué);2017年

2 廖舜正;信用卡的盈利能力與卡債危機(jī)的回避[D];南開大學(xué);2013年

3 陳為民;基于支持向量機(jī)的信用卡信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理模型與技術(shù)研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2009年

4 弋濤;信用卡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[D];西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2006年

5 吳洪濤;商業(yè)銀行信用卡業(yè)務(wù)研究[D];華東師范大學(xué);2003年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 王鳳云;從境外信用卡法律制度看我國信用卡立法之路[D];中國政法大學(xué);2008年

2 張可;中國信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀分析和措施研究[D];鄭州大學(xué);2006年

3 沈波;對我國信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的研究[D];蘇州大學(xué);2006年

4 劉曉鳳;內(nèi)蒙古信用卡產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展研究[D];內(nèi)蒙古大學(xué);2013年

5 盧凱文;信用卡消費(fèi)者權(quán)益保護(hù)問題研究[D];中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院;2015年

6 杜其勉;MS信用卡盈利能力研究[D];昆明理工大學(xué);2015年

7 譚佳欣;沈陽市居民信用卡使用行為調(diào)查與分析[D];遼寧大學(xué);2015年

8 郝晨;中國光大銀行信用卡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2015年

9 王四海;ZG銀行CG支行信用卡業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展策略研究[D];鄭州大學(xué);2015年

10 張怡雯;蘇州農(nóng)業(yè)銀行信用卡營銷策略研究[D];蘇州大學(xué);2015年

，

本文編號：1339414