本文關(guān)鍵詞：武漢市土地利用碳排放分析與系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真　出處：《華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城市土地利用 碳排放 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 仿真 低碳 武漢市

【摘要】：隨著全球人口的快速增長、社會經(jīng)濟的飛速發(fā)展,人類在大量消費以碳基能源為主的資源發(fā)展經(jīng)濟的同時,以溫室氣體為主的環(huán)境污染問題日益凸顯。氣候變暖、冰川融化、海平面升高、自然環(huán)境惡化以及時常出現(xiàn)的極端天氣等問題成為各界關(guān)注的焦點。而土地承載著人類生產(chǎn)以及生活的各類活動,城鎮(zhèn)化的擴張、經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展、資源的消耗等都與土地利用有著緊密的聯(lián)系,土地利用變化不僅僅直接改變了城市自然碳循環(huán),而且還間接影響著人為碳排放過程。但是以前對于土地利用碳排放的研究往往是從碳排放釋放和影響機理出發(fā),測算自然源和人為源碳排放量,分析其變化的影響因素,由此提出可以降低碳排放的對策。而對于城市社會經(jīng)濟與土地利用碳排放的系統(tǒng)分析,各因子相互作用機理的研究,以及由此按照可持續(xù)發(fā)展要求,探討可控變量對城市系統(tǒng)的作用還有待于深入。本文在綜合土地利用碳排放的有關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,對城市各類土地的自然源和人為源碳排放進行了測算與分析,計算了1996-2014年武漢市土地利用碳排放量、碳匯量和碳排放強度,并對其進行影響因素分解研究。在此基礎(chǔ)上通過建立城市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,從系統(tǒng)角度分析城市人口、資本、土地、能源等投入,工業(yè)品、GDP、碳排放等產(chǎn)出之間的關(guān)系,得出武漢市土地利用碳排放的變化以及調(diào)控因素的作用,之后通過系統(tǒng)模型模擬分析武漢市土地利用碳排放各子系統(tǒng)的變化和可能的調(diào)控,深入研究城市經(jīng)濟、土地利用與碳排放系統(tǒng)之間的聯(lián)系以及運行機理,進而提出符合城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的土地利用碳減排的相關(guān)對策。研究的主要內(nèi)容如下:(1)根據(jù)土地利用碳減排的實際需求提出了研究議題,并對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)研究文獻進行了綜述。對土地利用碳排放機理、土地利用碳排放效應(yīng)、土地利用碳排放測算、土地利用碳排放影響因素、城市土地利用碳減排以及系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真模型等方面的研究進行學(xué)習(xí),并對相關(guān)的研究觀點、研究方法、研究結(jié)論進行了歸納,進而提出現(xiàn)有研究的不足——對于城市社會經(jīng)濟與土地利用碳排放的系統(tǒng)分析,各因子相互作用機理的研究還有待加強。(2)按照現(xiàn)行理論和實踐的需求,界定了土地利用/覆被變化、土地利用碳排放、碳源碳匯和碳庫、能源消耗、碳排放強度以及低碳土地利用的概念,并梳理了可持續(xù)發(fā)展理論、人地關(guān)系理論、系統(tǒng)科學(xué)理論以及土地優(yōu)化配置理論,為本文的研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。(3)根據(jù)不同土地類型分別計算了武漢市土地利用碳排放量以及碳匯量,之后得到土地利用凈碳排放量。從總體上來分析,武漢市土地利用碳排放呈不斷上漲趨勢,由1996年的1282.92萬噸增長到2014年的2579.38萬噸,年均增長率為3.96%。而地均碳排放強度以及人均碳排放強度也呈現(xiàn)不斷上漲趨勢,分別由1996年的0.18萬噸/平方公里與1.79噸/人,上升到2014年的0.36萬噸/平方公里與3.12噸/人,年均增長率分別為3.93%與3.13%。而單位GDP碳排放強度逐年下降,從1996年的1.64噸/萬元下降為2014年的0.26噸/萬元,年均下降率為9.73%,這說明武漢市經(jīng)濟擴張的速度明顯高于土地利用碳排放的增長速度。然后運用LMDI模型分解了影響武漢市土地利用碳排放的各因素,結(jié)果表明1997-2014年與基期年比較,土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)因素、經(jīng)濟因素以及人口因素比較有力地推動了土地利用碳排放量的增長,累計貢獻率分別為9.79%、85.11%以及5.10%的碳增量。而土地利用效率以及能源利用效率對武漢市土地利用的碳排放的增長起到了抑制的作用,累計貢獻率分別為80.76%和19.24%的碳減排。(4)根據(jù)系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的建模步驟,確定了模型的建模原則、建模目的以及系統(tǒng)邊界,并將系統(tǒng)劃分為碳排放土地子系統(tǒng)、碳排放經(jīng)濟子系統(tǒng)、碳排放人口子系統(tǒng)、碳排放能源子系統(tǒng)以及碳排放環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)。然后根據(jù)五個子系統(tǒng)之間的相互聯(lián)系以及各變量間的反饋關(guān)系,利用Vensim軟件得到城市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并繪制出城市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)的因果關(guān)系圖和流量圖。(5)通過對武漢市社會經(jīng)濟歷史數(shù)據(jù)以及實際發(fā)展情況的分析,確定武漢市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型的相關(guān)參數(shù)以及方程式,得到武漢市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型。然后運用直觀與運行檢驗、歷史檢驗和靈敏度分析對模型進行檢驗。檢驗結(jié)果表明:模型具有很好的穩(wěn)定性,可以用來模擬實際系統(tǒng)。接著對武漢市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)進行仿真模擬,仿真時間為2016-2030年。仿真結(jié)果說明:(1)運用該模型預(yù)測武漢市土地利用碳排放量以及進行相對應(yīng)的政策模擬是可行的,這一模型也將適用于其他地區(qū)類似問題的分析研究。(2)隨著社會經(jīng)濟、城市人口等的進一步發(fā)展,武漢市土地利用碳排放總量將保持逐年攀升的趨勢。從仿真結(jié)果可以看出武漢市未來碳減排任務(wù)還比較嚴峻,應(yīng)加快制定低碳發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略和低碳土地利用規(guī)劃,早日實現(xiàn)土地的低碳利用。(6)通過改變不同的調(diào)控參數(shù),利用參數(shù)的不同組合,分別對經(jīng)濟、人口、能源、土地、環(huán)境這五個子系統(tǒng)的不同政策情景進行模擬,然后將各個子系統(tǒng)不同方案進行歸納比較,得到五點結(jié)論:(1)經(jīng)濟高速增長是促進武漢市土地利用碳排放量增長最重要的原因,其次是土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,而人口增長水平相較于經(jīng)濟高速增長與土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,對土地利用碳排放量增長的影響作用還是相對較小。(2)調(diào)整土地利用結(jié)構(gòu),減少農(nóng)用地向建設(shè)用地轉(zhuǎn)變是抑制武漢市土地利用碳排放量的主要途徑。(3)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對減少土地利用碳排放量有著重要作用。(4)調(diào)整能源結(jié)構(gòu)以及提高能源效率都可以在一定程度上減少土地利用碳排放量,但其作用效果有限。這也從側(cè)面表明能源效率因素相對于土地以及經(jīng)濟因素而言對土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)的作用較小。(5)相比較于土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整、能源結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整以及能源效率的提高,居民低碳意識的提高對土地利用碳減排的效果相對較弱。最后綜合以上分析,對系統(tǒng)進行綜合調(diào)整政策模擬,找到既能保障武漢市經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)健增長,又能實現(xiàn)2022年土地利用碳排放達峰目標的模擬方案,為武漢市土地低碳利用的實現(xiàn)提供決策參考和研究支持。(7)根據(jù)前述的武漢市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模擬仿真研究成果,結(jié)合武漢市經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展的實際情況,分別從經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)、人口系統(tǒng)、土地系統(tǒng)、能源系統(tǒng)以及環(huán)境系統(tǒng)這五個方面提出了符合武漢市社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的土地利用碳減排對策與建議。針對經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)提出的建議包括:(1)改變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展模式,全面推廣低碳經(jīng)濟和循環(huán)經(jīng)濟;(2)調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),限制第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,大力倡導(dǎo)發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè);(3)鼓勵高耗能行業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型,引進先進的低碳技術(shù)以及低碳設(shè)備,制定適宜武漢市發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級方案。針對人口系統(tǒng)提出的建議有保持計劃生育政策實施的正效應(yīng),嚴格執(zhí)行政府新出臺的二孩政策,通過外部政策約束來達到放緩人口增速的目標。針對土地系統(tǒng)提出的建議包括:(1)完善耕地保護責(zé)任制度,實施生態(tài)農(nóng)業(yè);(2)保護草地、水域資源,發(fā)揮其在調(diào)蓄減排方面的重要功用;(3)加強對林地使用的監(jiān)督,制止破壞林地的行為,保護武漢市的林地資源;(4)嚴格控制建設(shè)用地的規(guī)模,挖掘建設(shè)用地的內(nèi)部潛力,實現(xiàn)集約化利用;(5)推進低碳土地利用制度創(chuàng)新與法律體系建設(shè);(6)開發(fā)低碳土地利用技術(shù)。針對能源系統(tǒng)提出的建議包括:(1)加大科研投入力度,提升能源利用效率;(2)能源價格市場化,促進能源效率提升;(3)加大研發(fā)與推廣新型能源的力度。針對環(huán)境系統(tǒng)提出的建議包括:(1)要將低碳環(huán)保因素納入城市總體規(guī)劃中,在總體規(guī)劃的設(shè)計階段就應(yīng)加入低碳節(jié)能的相關(guān)概念;(2)積極倡導(dǎo)低碳生活,減少居民的碳足跡,將高消費高能耗的生活模式轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榈吞辑h(huán)保的生活模式。(8)結(jié)論和討論,對全文進行了總結(jié),并對今后的研究方向進行了展望。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of the global population and the rapid development of social economy, the consumption of carbon based energy is the main resource for the development of the economy. At the same time, the problem of greenhouse gas pollution is becoming increasingly prominent. Climate warming, glacier melting, sea level rise, natural environment deterioration and frequent extreme weather have become the focus of all walks of life. The land carrying human production and living activities, the expansion of urbanization, economic development, resource consumption and land use are closely linked, the change of land use not only changed the city natural carbon cycle, but also indirectly affect the anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, previous studies on carbon emissions from land use often start from the release and influence mechanism of carbon emissions, calculate the carbon emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, and analyze the influencing factors of their changes, so as to put forward countermeasures to reduce carbon emissions. For urban social economic and land use carbon emissions system analysis, the interaction mechanism of each factor is studied, and according to the requirements of sustainable development, we need to further explore the role of controllable variables to urban system. Based on literature comprehensive land use carbon emissions on the city of all kinds of land natural and man-made sources of carbon emissions were calculated and analyzed. The land utilization of Wuhan City carbon emissions, carbon sequestration and carbon emission intensity of 1996-2014 was calculated, and the influence factors study. On this basis, through the establishment of carbon emissions by the dynamic system model of city land, analysis of city population, capital and land, energy and other inputs from the system point of view, the relationship between industrial products, GDP, carbon emissions and output, the changes in carbon emissions and control factors of land use in Wuhan City, then through the system simulation and analysis of changes the system of carbon emission of land use in Wuhan city and possible regulation, research on the utilization of city economy, land and carbon emissions of links between systems and operating mechanism, and then put forward in line with the city sustainable development of land use carbon emission reduction countermeasures. The main contents of the research are as follows: (1) the research topics are put forward according to the actual demand of carbon emission reduction in land use, and the relevant literature at home and abroad is reviewed. The mechanism of carbon emissions of land use, land use, land use and carbon emission effect of carbon emissions, carbon emission of land utilization factors, city land use reduction and the simulation model of system dynamics and other aspects of the research learning, and research ideas, research methods, research conclusions are summarized, and problems a study on city social economy and land use system of carbon emission analysis, study on the mechanism of each factor interaction has to be strengthened. (2) according to the current theoretical and practical needs, the definition of land use / cover change of land use, carbon emissions, carbon sinks and carbon pool, energy consumption, carbon emissions and low-carbon land use concept, and summarizes the theory of sustainable development, human relations theory, system science theory and land optimization configuration theory, provides the theoretical basis for this study. (3) the carbon emissions and carbon sequestration of land use in Wuhan were calculated on the basis of different land types, and then the net carbon emissions from land use were obtained. From the overall analysis, the carbon emissions of land use in Wuhan showed a rising trend, from 12 million 829 thousand and 200 tons in 1996 to 25 million 793 thousand and 800 tons in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 3.96%. The average carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emission intensity also showed a rising trend, rising from 1 thousand and 800 tons per square meter in 1996 to 1.79 tons per person, to 3 thousand and 600 tons / square kilometer in 2014 and 3.12 tons per person, the average annual growth rate is 3.93% and 3.13% respectively. The intensity of carbon emissions per unit GDP decreased year by year, from 1.64 tons per 10000 yuan in 1996 to 0.26 tons in 2014. The annual decline rate is 9.73%. This indicates that the speed of Wuhan's economic expansion is obviously higher than that of land use carbon emissions. And then use LMDI model to decompose the influencing factors of carbon emission of land use in Wuhan City, the results showed that 1997-2014 years compared with the base year, the land use structure factors, economic factors and demographic factors more effectively promoted the land use and carbon emissions growth, the cumulative contribution rate were 9.79%, 85.11% and 5.10% carbon increment. However, land use efficiency and energy efficiency played a role in inhibiting the growth of land use carbon emissions in Wuhan. The cumulative contribution rate was 80.76% and 19.24% respectively. (4) according to the system dynamics modeling steps, determine the modeling principle, modeling and system boundary, and divides the system into carbon emissions carbon emissions land subsystem, economic subsystem, carbon emissions, carbon emissions of the population subsystem, resource subsystem and environment subsystem of carbon emissions. Then, according to the relationship between the five subsystems and the feedback relationship among the variables, we use Vensim software to get the system dynamics model of the urban land use carbon emissions, and draw the causality diagram and traffic graph of the carbon emission system of urban land use. (5) through the analysis of the social economic history data and the actual development situation of Wuhan, we determined the relevant parameters and equations of the land use carbon emissions system dynamics model in Wuhan, and got the system dynamics model of the land use carbon emissions in Wuhan. Then the model is tested by intuitionistic and operational test, historical test and sensitivity analysis. The test results show that the model has good stability and can be used to simulate the actual system. Then the carbon emission system of land use in Wuhan was simulated, and the simulation time was 2016-2030 years. The simulation results show that: (1) the use of this
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X24;F301.2

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 吳萌;任立;陳銀蓉;;城市土地利用碳排放系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真研究——以武漢市為例[J];中國土地科學(xué);2017年02期

2 汪晗;吳靜蘭;張安錄;聶鑫;;土地利用強度碳排放效應(yīng)分析——以廣西南寧為例[J];生態(tài)經(jīng)濟;2016年09期

3 王喜平;王s，

本文編號：1339345