發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-04-25 13:56

【摘要】：本文以2011年新財(cái)富本土最佳研究團(tuán)隊(duì)排名前10名的賣(mài)方研究機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)2011年上市公司業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告所發(fā)布的點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告為樣本，從賣(mài)方分析師行為角度探尋市場(chǎng)有效性。通過(guò)logit模型回歸檢驗(yàn)本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，，賣(mài)方分析師發(fā)布業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告點(diǎn)評(píng)的傾向與上市公司業(yè)績(jī)超預(yù)期程度以及賣(mài)方分析師對(duì)上市公司的相對(duì)關(guān)注程度存在較為顯著的正相關(guān)性，但是與業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告發(fā)布日距離賣(mài)方分析師發(fā)布上一份點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告的時(shí)間間隔以及與業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告發(fā)布日距離對(duì)應(yīng)定期報(bào)告發(fā)布日的時(shí)間間隔相關(guān)性并不顯著。上述結(jié)果表明賣(mài)方分析師能夠?qū)ι鲜泄舅l(fā)布的超預(yù)期信息做出及時(shí)反應(yīng)，從而從側(cè)面論證了當(dāng)前我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)存在一定的半有效市場(chǎng)特征。
[Abstract]:Taking the top 10 best local research team of New Wealth in 2011 as a sample, this paper explores the market efficiency from the perspective of the behavior of the seller analysts, based on the evaluation report issued by the seller's research institution on the 2011 listed companies' performance forecast. Through the regression test of logit model, this paper finds that the tendency of seller analysts to issue a forecast of performance has a significant positive correlation with the degree of performance exceeding expectations of listed companies and the relative attention of seller analysts to listed companies. However, there was no significant correlation with the time interval between the release date of the report and the time interval between the date of release of the report and the date on which the report was issued according to the date on which the report was issued by the seller's analyst and the time interval between the date of publication of the report. The above results show that the seller analysts can respond to the information released by listed companies in a timely manner, thus demonstrating that there are some semi-efficient market characteristics in the current capital market of our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F275;F832.51;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前9條

1 石桂峰;蘇力勇;齊偉山;;財(cái)務(wù)分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)精確度決定因素的實(shí)證分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2007年05期

2 宋軍,吳沖鋒;中國(guó)股評(píng)家的羊群行為研究[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2003年01期

3 楊德明;林斌;;業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)告的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2006年16期

4 姜國(guó)華;關(guān)于證券分析師對(duì)中國(guó)上市公司會(huì)計(jì)收益預(yù)測(cè)的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2004年06期

5 李丹蒙;;公司透明度與分析師預(yù)測(cè)活動(dòng)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2007年06期

6 陳曉,陳小悅,劉釗;A股盈余報(bào)告的有用性研究——來(lái)自上海、深圳股市的實(shí)證證據(jù)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;1999年06期

7 王春珊;劉習(xí)勇;;上市公司盈余預(yù)告中的信息含量[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2006年08期

8 原紅旗;黃倩茹;;承銷(xiāo)商分析師與非承銷(xiāo)商分析師預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)級(jí)比較研究[J];中國(guó)會(huì)計(jì)評(píng)論;2007年03期

9 洪劍峭,皮建屏;預(yù)警制度的實(shí)證研究——一項(xiàng)來(lái)自中國(guó)股市的證據(jù)[J];證券市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)報(bào);2002年09期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 阮瑋仕;賣(mài)方分析師的盈利預(yù)測(cè)大膽程度與預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性[D];清華大學(xué);2010年

本文編號(hào)：2465171