建設(shè)人口均衡城市視角下的人口規(guī)模預(yù)測——以成都市為例
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-17 00:33
【摘要】：建設(shè)人口均衡城市,首要在于充分摸清人口底數(shù),準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測人口增長規(guī)模,才能科學(xué)制定人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展規(guī)劃。文章針對以往單一指標(biāo)預(yù)測人口總量精度不高的問題,利用灰色預(yù)測所需信息少和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)非線性映射能力強的優(yōu)點,篩選出與人口總量緊密聯(lián)系的9個主要因素,力圖建立多指標(biāo)灰色PSO-BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)人口預(yù)測模型,并對2015年至2030年成都市人口總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測。實證分析表明,該模型預(yù)測精度高、泛化能力強,具有較好的實用價值。在論文的最后,作者依據(jù)模型預(yù)測結(jié)果,為成都市建設(shè)人口均衡城市提出了較有針對性的建議。
[Abstract]:To build a balanced city, the most important thing is to fully understand the population base and forecast the population growth scale, so as to scientifically formulate the population and economic and social development plans. Aiming at the problem that the precision of forecasting population is not high in the past, the paper makes use of the advantages of less information needed by grey forecast and strong nonlinear mapping ability of neural network, and selects nine main factors which are closely related to the total population. This paper tries to establish a multi-index grey PSO-BP neural network population prediction model and forecast the population of Chengdu from 2015 to 2030. The empirical analysis shows that the model has high prediction accuracy, strong generalization ability and good practical value. At the end of the paper, based on the prediction results of the model, the author puts forward some suggestions for the construction of a balanced population city in Chengdu.
【作者單位】： 四川師范大學(xué)政治教育學(xué)院;西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士后流動站;
【基金】：成都市哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃項目(ZST12-02,ZST11-06)
【分類號】：C924.2;F299.27
[Abstract]:To build a balanced city, the most important thing is to fully understand the population base and forecast the population growth scale, so as to scientifically formulate the population and economic and social development plans. Aiming at the problem that the precision of forecasting population is not high in the past, the paper makes use of the advantages of less information needed by grey forecast and strong nonlinear mapping ability of neural network, and selects nine main factors which are closely related to the total population. This paper tries to establish a multi-index grey PSO-BP neural network population prediction model and forecast the population of Chengdu from 2015 to 2030. The empirical analysis shows that the model has high prediction accuracy, strong generalization ability and good practical value. At the end of the paper, based on the prediction results of the model, the author puts forward some suggestions for the construction of a balanced population city in Chengdu.
【作者單位】： 四川師范大學(xué)政治教育學(xué)院;西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士后流動站;
【基金】：成都市哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃項目(ZST12-02,ZST11-06)
【分類號】：C924.2;F299.27
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