【摘要】：20世紀80年代以后，發(fā)達國家首先開始放松了對國際資本流動的限制，20世紀90年代以后，在發(fā)達國家進一步推動國際資本自由化流動的同時，發(fā)展中國家也開始逐漸放松對國際資本流動的限制。以高流動性、高投機性和高度虛擬化為主要特征的短期跨境資本的流動，對資本流入國的利率、匯率和貨幣政策等產(chǎn)生重大的影響。近年來越來越多的國際資本進入中國市場，尤其是短期跨境資本在金融危機時為了尋求避險和增值。加上幾年來人民幣升值預期的不斷增強，，來自世界各地的短期跨境資本開始頻繁進出我國關境。短期跨境資本的大量流入會造成我國市場中流動性過剩，進一步增加人民幣升值壓力。短期跨境資本的大量流出則會對中國國際儲備形成沖擊，甚至會危及經(jīng)濟基本面。由于我國目前尚未放開資本項目的管制，大量的短期跨境資本隱藏于經(jīng)常項目之下進出我國關境。因此，有必要對我國短期跨境資本流動的影響因素進行探索，并針對相應的主要因素提出相關的監(jiān)管建議。 本文首先概述了短期跨境資本的定義與分類，從國際收支平衡表中反映的顯性渠道和表外的隱性渠道兩方面詳細描述了進出我國關境的短期跨境資本的流動途徑。接著對既往的短期跨境資本尤其是隱蔽的短期跨境資本流動的規(guī)模測算方法進行總結，選擇適合本文的方法對2003年第3季度至2012年第3季度我國短期跨境資本的凈流入額進行測算。然后在前文基礎上討論我國短期跨境資本流動的驅(qū)動因素，并運用VAR模型通過EViews5.0軟件進行ADF平穩(wěn)性檢驗、Granger因果檢驗和脈沖響應分析，對我國短期跨境資本流動的影響因素進行實證檢驗。最后從強化短期跨境資本流動監(jiān)測、建立金融風險指標評估體系和短期跨境資本流動的管理三方面提出應對措施和建議。
[Abstract]:After the 1980s, the developed countries first began to relax the restrictions on international capital flows. After the 1990s, while the developed countries further promoted the flow of international capital liberalization, Developing countries are also easing restrictions on international capital flows. Short-term cross-border capital flows, characterized by high liquidity, high speculation and high virtualization, have a significant impact on the interest rates, exchange rates and monetary policies of capital inflow countries. In recent years, more and more international capital has entered the Chinese market, especially short-term cross-border capital in order to seek risk avoidance and appreciation during the financial crisis. Coupled with rising expectations of yuan appreciation over the past few years, short-term cross-border capital from around the world has begun to move in and out of China frequently. The large inflow of short-term cross-border capital will cause excess liquidity in the Chinese market and further increase the pressure of RMB appreciation. A large outflow of short-term cross-border capital could have an impact on China's international reserves and even jeopardize economic fundamentals. Since China has not yet liberalized the control of capital account, a large amount of short-term cross-border capital is hidden in and out of China under the current account. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the influencing factors of short-term cross-border capital flows in China, and to put forward relevant regulatory suggestions for the corresponding main factors. This paper first summarizes the definition and classification of short-term cross-border capital and describes in detail the flow of short-term cross-border capital into and out of China from two aspects: the explicit channel reflected in the balance of payments account and the hidden channel outside the balance of payments account. Then it summarizes the previous methods of measuring the scale of short-term cross-border capital flows, especially the hidden short-term cross-border capital flows. This paper chooses the suitable method to measure the net inflow of short-term cross-border capital from the third quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2012. Then the driving factors of short-term cross-border capital flows in China are discussed on the basis of the above, and the ADF stationary test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are carried out by using VAR model through EViews5.0 software. This paper empirically tests the influencing factors of short-term cross-border capital flows in China. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from three aspects: strengthening the monitoring of short-term cross-border capital flows, establishing the financial risk index evaluation system and managing short-term cross-border capital flows.
【學位授予單位】：蘇州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.5;F831.7

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