【摘要】：在現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中,企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)是否可持續(xù)關(guān)鍵在于盈利能力是否可持續(xù),而決定盈利能力可持續(xù)的一個(gè)最重要指標(biāo)就是會(huì)計(jì)盈余的持續(xù)性。 本文研究的一個(gè)內(nèi)容就是關(guān)于不同盈余組成部分對(duì)盈余持續(xù)性的影響,而后又研究了盈余持續(xù)性對(duì)股價(jià)的影響。在對(duì)這些問(wèn)題研究之前,先對(duì)研究的背景進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)單的介紹,并引出了本文的研究問(wèn)題及研究目的,還介紹了新的研究思路以及規(guī)范性與實(shí)證性相結(jié)合的研究方法。其次本文對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于盈余持續(xù)性的研究進(jìn)行了評(píng)述。 之后本文在新會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則下,選取了2007-2011年深滬上市公司的數(shù)據(jù),關(guān)于盈余持續(xù)性及其對(duì)股價(jià)的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。本文首先使用一元線性自回歸的時(shí)間序列模型研究不同盈余部分各自的持續(xù)性,再將凈收益進(jìn)行了分解,并討論分解盈余是否對(duì)下一年度的凈利潤(rùn)預(yù)測(cè)能力具有解釋作用。通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)在盈余組成部分當(dāng)中具有最好的持續(xù)性；而將凈利潤(rùn)拆分為不同盈余項(xiàng)目后,發(fā)現(xiàn)分解信息對(duì)下一年度凈收益的解釋能力反而有稍微的下降。這說(shuō)明在對(duì)下一年度凈利潤(rùn)的預(yù)測(cè)中凈利潤(rùn)的解釋能力是最強(qiáng)的,并且還發(fā)現(xiàn)非營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)幾乎沒(méi)有解釋能力。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文又研究了盈余持續(xù)性對(duì)股價(jià)的影響,通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)股價(jià)與盈余持續(xù)性之間存在著顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,而后將營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)拆分為應(yīng)計(jì)利潤(rùn)和現(xiàn)金盈余,發(fā)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)金盈余與股價(jià)的相關(guān)性要強(qiáng)于應(yīng)計(jì)利潤(rùn)與股價(jià)的相關(guān)性,并且將營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)分解之后能夠?yàn)橥顿Y者提供信息增量。
[Abstract]:In real life, the key to the sustainability of enterprise production and operation is the sustainability of profitability, and the sustainability of accounting earnings is one of the most important indicators to determine the sustainability of profitability. One of the contents of this paper is about the influence of different earnings components on earnings persistence, and then the effect of earnings persistence on stock price. Before studying these problems, the background of the research is introduced briefly, and the research problems and purposes of this paper are introduced, and the new research ideas and the research methods combining normative and empirical are also introduced. Secondly, this paper reviews the research on earnings persistence at home and abroad. Then, under the new accounting standards, this paper selects the data of Shenzhen and Shanghai listed companies from 2007 to 2011, and makes an empirical study on earnings persistence and its influence on stock price. In this paper, we first use the time series model of linear autoregressive to study the persistence of different surplus parts, then decompose the net income, and discuss whether the decomposed earnings can explain the forecast ability of the next year's net profit. It is found that the operating profit has the best persistence in the earnings component, and the ability of explaining the decomposition information to the next year's net income is slightly decreased after the net profit is divided into different surplus items. This shows that net profit is the strongest in the forecast for next year's net profit and finds that non-operating profit has little explanatory power. On this basis, this paper also studies the effect of earnings persistence on stock price. It is found that there is a significant positive correlation between stock price and earnings persistence, and then operating profit is divided into accrual profit and cash surplus. It is found that the correlation between cash surplus and stock price is stronger than that between accrual profit and stock price, and the decomposition of operating profit can provide information increment for investors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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