本文選題：資本化率 + 交易價值��； 參考：《東北財經大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：股票市場的發(fā)展與經濟增長的關系一直以來都是經濟金融領域進行探討的熱門課題。當代經濟學家詳細探討了貿易與增長、金融中介與經濟增長的關系后,日益感覺到如何界定股票市場在經濟增長中作用的重要性。國外的一些學者通過實證研究發(fā)展,實際人均國內生產總值和股票市場發(fā)展之間存在著某種對應關系,而這還可能存在因果關系。對于股票市場尚未充分發(fā)展的中國來說,自中國股票市場產生之日起,關于股票市場發(fā)展對經濟增長有沒有促進的爭論就從來沒有停止過。目前國內國外都存在兩種觀點,一種認為股票市場與經濟增長之間存在正相關關系,一種認為股票市場的發(fā)展與經濟增長存在微弱的相關關系甚至沒有關系。正確認識股票市場發(fā)展與經濟增長之間的關系,不僅對客觀認識股票市場在我國國民經濟中的地位起到一定作用,同時對股票市場的發(fā)展起到了規(guī)范的作用,乃至對我國經濟的發(fā)展都有重要意義。本文在這種背景下,深入探討了我國股票市場的發(fā)展與經濟增長之間的關系。 本文首先在導論部分簡單概述了我國股票市場發(fā)展與經濟增長的選題背景、研究目的及方法、還有文章的結構安排。其次,文章在文獻綜述部分闡述了國外與國內學者對股票市場發(fā)展與經濟增長二者之間關系的觀點。文章第三部分從股票市場與實體經濟的關系、股票市場促進經濟增長理論分析及經濟增長促進股票市場的形成和發(fā)展三個方面對股票市場發(fā)展與經濟增長關系進行理論概述。第四部分是對我國股票市場發(fā)展與經濟增長關系的實證研究。本文將1998年至2012年的季度數(shù)據作為選取的樣本數(shù)據,通過建立向量自回歸模型VAR(Vector Autoregression),對經濟增長指標國內生產總值(GDP),股票市場發(fā)展指標資本化率(CAP)、交易價值(FR)和季度周轉率(TUR)及它們處理后數(shù)據進行單位根檢驗(ADF)、協(xié)整檢驗(Cointegration Test)和格蘭杰因果關系檢驗(Granger Causality Test),并且通過脈沖響應函數(shù)(IRF)和誤差修正模型(Vecton Error Correction)進行分析。接下來這部分是對股票市場發(fā)展與經濟增長提出的政策及建議。最后第六部分是文章的結論及進一步需要研究的問題。研究得出結論是：股票市場發(fā)展與經濟發(fā)展沒有顯著關系。股票市場規(guī)模擴大會阻礙經濟發(fā)展,股票市場流動性對經濟發(fā)展沒有顯著的關系。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于：一,理論方面對股票市場和經濟發(fā)展兩者相互影響的文獻進行了歸納和總結,分析了股票市場與經濟增長之間的機制。二,實證方面,對原有計算資本化率的指標進行了嘗試性的改良,使用股票市場的流通總值替代了很多文獻中使用的市價總值。本文采用了流通總值原因在于隨近幾年來股票市場改革,非流通股不能算作市場中資本化的一部分,而在衡量我國股票市場發(fā)展中,流通股所占比例的變化,可以反映幾年來股票市場改革的進程和變化。
[Abstract]:The relationship between the development of the stock market and the economic growth has always been a hot topic in the economic and financial field. The contemporary economists have discussed the relationship between trade and growth in detail, and after the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth, the importance of how to define the role of the stock market in economic growth is increasingly felt. There is a certain corresponding relationship between the actual per capita GDP and the stock market development, and there may be a causal relationship between the actual per capita GDP and the development of the stock market. For China, which has not yet fully developed the stock market, the debate about the growth of stock market on economic growth has been debated from the date of the emergence of the Chinese stock market. There are two viewpoints at home and abroad. One thinks that there is a positive correlation between stock market and economic growth. One thinks that there is little relationship between the development of stock market and economic growth. It is not only to recognize the relationship between the development of stock market and economic growth, but not only to objectively recognize the relationship between the stock market development and economic growth. The understanding of the stock market plays a certain role in the status of our national economy, and has played a normative role in the development of the stock market, and even to the development of our country's economy. This paper has discussed the relationship between the development of our stock market and the economic growth in this background.
In the first part of the introduction, this paper briefly outlines the background of the topic selection of China's stock market development and economic growth, the purpose and method of the study, and the structure of the article. Secondly, the article expounds the relationship between the foreign and domestic scholars on the relationship between the stock market development and the economic growth between the two foreign and domestic scholars in the literature review. The third part of the article is from the stock market The relationship between the ticket market and the real economy, the theoretical analysis of the stock market promoting economic growth and the three aspects of the economic growth promoting the formation and development of the stock market. The fourth part is an empirical study on the relationship between the development of the stock market and the economic growth in China. This article will be from 1998 to 2. The 012 year quarterly data is selected as the sample data, by establishing the vector autoregressive model VAR (Vector Autoregression), the economic growth index (GDP), the stock market development index capitalization rate (CAP), the transaction value (FR) and the quarterly turnover rate (TUR) and the unit root test (ADF) of their processed data (ADF) and co integration test (ADF). Cointegration Test) and Grainger causality test (Granger Causality Test), and analysis through the impulse response function (IRF) and error correction model (Vecton Error Correction). The next part is a policy and suggestion for the development of the stock market and economic growth. The last sixth parts are the conclusion and further analysis of the article. The conclusion is that there is no significant relationship between the development of the stock market and the economic development. The expansion of the stock market will impede the economic development, and the liquidity of the stock market has no significant relationship to the economic development.
The innovation of this paper is: first, the theoretical aspects of the mutual influence of the stock market and economic development are summarized and summarized, and the mechanism between the stock market and economic growth is analyzed. Two, in the empirical aspect, a trial improvement of the original index of the calculated capitalization rate is made, and the turnover of the stock market is used as a substitute for the value of the stock market. In this paper, the value of the market value used in many documents has been replaced. The reason for the use of the total value of circulation is that with the stock market reform in recent years, non circulation shares can not be regarded as a part of the capitalization in the market. In the development of the stock market, the change in the proportion of the shares in the stock market can reflect the process and change of the stock market reform in the past few years.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F832.51;F124.1

【引證文獻】

中國期刊全文數(shù)據庫 前1條

1 劉璐;;VAR模型下的銀行、股市發(fā)展與經濟增長關系的探索[J];時代金融;2015年24期

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本文編號：2050884