本文選題：資本化率 + 交易價(jià)值��； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：股票市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系一直以來(lái)都是經(jīng)濟(jì)金融領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行探討的熱門課題。當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家詳細(xì)探討了貿(mào)易與增長(zhǎng)、金融中介與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系后,日益感覺(jué)到如何界定股票市場(chǎng)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中作用的重要性。國(guó)外的一些學(xué)者通過(guò)實(shí)證研究發(fā)展,實(shí)際人均國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展之間存在著某種對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系,而這還可能存在因果關(guān)系。對(duì)于股票市場(chǎng)尚未充分發(fā)展的中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō),自中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生之日起,關(guān)于股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有沒(méi)有促進(jìn)的爭(zhēng)論就從來(lái)沒(méi)有停止過(guò)。目前國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)外都存在兩種觀點(diǎn),一種認(rèn)為股票市場(chǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,一種認(rèn)為股票市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在微弱的相關(guān)關(guān)系甚至沒(méi)有關(guān)系。正確認(rèn)識(shí)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,不僅對(duì)客觀認(rèn)識(shí)股票市場(chǎng)在我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位起到一定作用,同時(shí)對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展起到了規(guī)范的作用,乃至對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展都有重要意義。本文在這種背景下,深入探討了我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。 本文首先在導(dǎo)論部分簡(jiǎn)單概述了我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的選題背景、研究目的及方法、還有文章的結(jié)構(gòu)安排。其次,文章在文獻(xiàn)綜述部分闡述了國(guó)外與國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)二者之間關(guān)系的觀點(diǎn)。文章第三部分從股票市場(chǎng)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系、股票市場(chǎng)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論分析及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)促進(jìn)股票市場(chǎng)的形成和發(fā)展三個(gè)方面對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行理論概述。第四部分是對(duì)我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究。本文將1998年至2012年的季度數(shù)據(jù)作為選取的樣本數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)建立向量自回歸模型VAR(Vector Autoregression),對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指標(biāo)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP),股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展指標(biāo)資本化率(CAP)、交易價(jià)值(FR)和季度周轉(zhuǎn)率(TUR)及它們處理后數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)(ADF)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)(Cointegration Test)和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)(Granger Causality Test),并且通過(guò)脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)(IRF)和誤差修正模型(Vecton Error Correction)進(jìn)行分析。接下來(lái)這部分是對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)提出的政策及建議。最后第六部分是文章的結(jié)論及進(jìn)一步需要研究的問(wèn)題。研究得出結(jié)論是：股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展沒(méi)有顯著關(guān)系。股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大會(huì)阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,股票市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展沒(méi)有顯著的關(guān)系。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于：一,理論方面對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展兩者相互影響的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了歸納和總結(jié),分析了股票市場(chǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的機(jī)制。二,實(shí)證方面,對(duì)原有計(jì)算資本化率的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了嘗試性的改良,使用股票市場(chǎng)的流通總值替代了很多文獻(xiàn)中使用的市價(jià)總值。本文采用了流通總值原因在于隨近幾年來(lái)股票市場(chǎng)改革,非流通股不能算作市場(chǎng)中資本化的一部分,而在衡量我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展中,流通股所占比例的變化,可以反映幾年來(lái)股票市場(chǎng)改革的進(jìn)程和變化。
[Abstract]:The relationship between the development of the stock market and the economic growth has always been a hot topic in the economic and financial field. The contemporary economists have discussed the relationship between trade and growth in detail, and after the relationship between financial intermediation and economic growth, the importance of how to define the role of the stock market in economic growth is increasingly felt. There is a certain corresponding relationship between the actual per capita GDP and the stock market development, and there may be a causal relationship between the actual per capita GDP and the development of the stock market. For China, which has not yet fully developed the stock market, the debate about the growth of stock market on economic growth has been debated from the date of the emergence of the Chinese stock market. There are two viewpoints at home and abroad. One thinks that there is a positive correlation between stock market and economic growth. One thinks that there is little relationship between the development of stock market and economic growth. It is not only to recognize the relationship between the development of stock market and economic growth, but not only to objectively recognize the relationship between the stock market development and economic growth. The understanding of the stock market plays a certain role in the status of our national economy, and has played a normative role in the development of the stock market, and even to the development of our country's economy. This paper has discussed the relationship between the development of our stock market and the economic growth in this background.
In the first part of the introduction, this paper briefly outlines the background of the topic selection of China's stock market development and economic growth, the purpose and method of the study, and the structure of the article. Secondly, the article expounds the relationship between the foreign and domestic scholars on the relationship between the stock market development and the economic growth between the two foreign and domestic scholars in the literature review. The third part of the article is from the stock market The relationship between the ticket market and the real economy, the theoretical analysis of the stock market promoting economic growth and the three aspects of the economic growth promoting the formation and development of the stock market. The fourth part is an empirical study on the relationship between the development of the stock market and the economic growth in China. This article will be from 1998 to 2. The 012 year quarterly data is selected as the sample data, by establishing the vector autoregressive model VAR (Vector Autoregression), the economic growth index (GDP), the stock market development index capitalization rate (CAP), the transaction value (FR) and the quarterly turnover rate (TUR) and the unit root test (ADF) of their processed data (ADF) and co integration test (ADF). Cointegration Test) and Grainger causality test (Granger Causality Test), and analysis through the impulse response function (IRF) and error correction model (Vecton Error Correction). The next part is a policy and suggestion for the development of the stock market and economic growth. The last sixth parts are the conclusion and further analysis of the article. The conclusion is that there is no significant relationship between the development of the stock market and the economic development. The expansion of the stock market will impede the economic development, and the liquidity of the stock market has no significant relationship to the economic development.
The innovation of this paper is: first, the theoretical aspects of the mutual influence of the stock market and economic development are summarized and summarized, and the mechanism between the stock market and economic growth is analyzed. Two, in the empirical aspect, a trial improvement of the original index of the calculated capitalization rate is made, and the turnover of the stock market is used as a substitute for the value of the stock market. In this paper, the value of the market value used in many documents has been replaced. The reason for the use of the total value of circulation is that with the stock market reform in recent years, non circulation shares can not be regarded as a part of the capitalization in the market. In the development of the stock market, the change in the proportion of the shares in the stock market can reflect the process and change of the stock market reform in the past few years.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.51;F124.1

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

中國(guó)期刊全文數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù) 前1條

1 劉璐;;VAR模型下的銀行、股市發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的探索[J];時(shí)代金融;2015年24期

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本文編號(hào)：2050884