發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-08 02:03

  本文選題：外匯儲備 + 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)實(shí)現(xiàn)了跨越式發(fā)展。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)開放程度的日益增強(qiáng),我國對外進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易迅速擴(kuò)張。進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來,我國對外貿(mào)易呈現(xiàn)飛速增長態(tài)勢,隨之而來的是外匯儲備規(guī)模實(shí)現(xiàn)同步增速。與1990年首次達(dá)到并突破100億美元的外匯儲備規(guī)模相比,進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)的十幾年來,我國外匯儲備規(guī)模實(shí)現(xiàn)直線上升式增長：2000年末我國外匯儲備規(guī)模達(dá)到1655.74億美元；2004年以51.25%的增幅成為21世紀(jì)外匯儲備規(guī)模增長的新拐點(diǎn)；盡管接下來的幾年來外匯儲備增長率呈現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)遞減的發(fā)展勢頭,但是每年的規(guī)模增長量都是巨大的；2006年2月底中國大陸的外匯儲備總額為8536.72億美元(不包括港澳的外匯儲備),首次超過日本,位居世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體第一；2011年,我國外匯儲備總額31811.48億美元,突破3萬億大關(guān)。所以,我國外匯儲備適度規(guī)模問題已然成為當(dāng)今熱議的研究課題之一。 與此同時(shí),伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,國內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場也呈現(xiàn)了增速發(fā)展的態(tài)勢。2004年,房地產(chǎn)市場表現(xiàn)出強(qiáng)勁的增長勢頭,增速一度達(dá)到17.76%,之后開始呈現(xiàn)較為平穩(wěn)的增長。經(jīng)歷過2008年金融危機(jī)的沖擊,房產(chǎn)價(jià)格出現(xiàn)21世紀(jì)以來的首次下滑現(xiàn)象,不過這種情況在2009年以23.18%的增速出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)。隨后這幾年保持比較良好的增長勢頭。 本文首先梳理了國內(nèi)外對外匯儲備與房地產(chǎn)市場的研究成果,進(jìn)行分類總結(jié)。其次引入了外匯儲備與房地產(chǎn)關(guān)系的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制分析,為接下來分析我國外匯儲備與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。在實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)部分,選取了六個(gè)研究變量(外匯儲備、房屋銷售價(jià)格指數(shù)、貨幣供給量、消費(fèi)物價(jià)指數(shù)、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入與對外貿(mào)易依存度)通過脈沖響應(yīng)分析和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)研究了外匯儲備與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間的關(guān)系。脈沖響應(yīng)結(jié)果表明，外匯儲備和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間是符合理論部分外匯儲備到房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制分析的,在長期內(nèi)外匯儲備與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間存在穩(wěn)定持續(xù)的均衡關(guān)系。格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,外匯儲備與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間也是符合外匯儲備與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格關(guān)系的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制分析的,并且根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果可以得出判斷,外匯儲備在滯后2-5期是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的格蘭杰原因。最后,梳理總結(jié)本文的全部結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic construction has achieved leapfrog development. With the increasing degree of economic opening, China's foreign import and export trade is expanding rapidly. Since the beginning of the 21st century, China's foreign trade has shown a rapid growth trend, followed by a synchronous increase in the scale of foreign exchange reserves. Compared with the scale of foreign exchange reserves of US $10 billion reached and broken through for the first time in 1990, in the last decade of the 21st century, At the end of 2000, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves reached 165.574 billion US dollars, and the increase of 51.25% in 2004 became a new inflection point for the growth of foreign exchange reserves in the 21st century. Despite the steady decline in the growth rate of foreign exchange reserves over the next few years, But the annual growth is huge; mainland China's foreign exchange reserves totalled $853.672 billion at the end of February 2006 (excluding reserves in Hong Kong and Macao, which for the first time overtook Japan as the world's largest economy; 2011). China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 3.181148 trillion US dollars, surpassing the 3 trillion mark. Therefore, the moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves has become one of the hot research topics. At the same time, with the rapid development of China's economy, the domestic real estate market has also shown the trend of growth. In 2004, the real estate market showed a strong growth momentum, the growth rate once reached 17.7667, and then began to show a more stable growth. After the 2008 financial crisis, property prices fell for the first time in the 21st century, but reversed at 23.18 percent in 2009. The following years to maintain a relatively good growth momentum. In this paper, the foreign exchange reserves and real estate market research results, classified summary. Secondly, the transmission mechanism of the relationship between foreign exchange reserve and real estate is introduced, which lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis of the relationship between foreign exchange reserve and real estate price. In the empirical test part, we select six research variables (foreign exchange reserve, housing sales price index, money supply, consumer price index, consumer price index). Based on impulse response analysis and Granger causality test, this paper studies the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices. The impulse response results show that the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices is consistent with the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism from foreign exchange reserves to real estate prices, and there is a stable and persistent equilibrium relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices in the long run. Granger causality test results show that the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices is also consistent with the analysis of the transmission mechanism of the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and real estate prices. Foreign exchange reserves lag 2-5 period is the real estate price Granger reason. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is summarized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F299.23

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