本文選題：國際短期資本流動(dòng) + 規(guī)模測(cè)算��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化進(jìn)程的加快和我國金融自由化程度的加深，國際短期資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模異常迅速，，其中也不缺乏呈現(xiàn)出新情況，新趨勢(shì)，表現(xiàn)出新問題。國際短期資本流動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)為流動(dòng)性高，流動(dòng)方向不易監(jiān)測(cè)，投機(jī)性較強(qiáng)等特點(diǎn)，加上我國的金融市場(chǎng)體制不完善，監(jiān)管體系也不健全，勢(shì)必對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和金融安全帶來較大的隱患。因此看來，對(duì)短期資本流動(dòng)的機(jī)制、趨勢(shì)及其影響因素的研宄具有較大的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在回顧國際資本流動(dòng)經(jīng)典理論的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)2012年的國內(nèi)短期資本流動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀及流通渠道進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié)，測(cè)算了國際短期資本的凈流入量規(guī)模。結(jié)合資本流動(dòng)經(jīng)典理論和我國實(shí)際情況，確定了主要影響因素，建立了包含短期資本流動(dòng)、國內(nèi)外利差、實(shí)際有效匯率指數(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長量、通脹率差、房地產(chǎn)收益率七個(gè)變量的VAR計(jì)量模型，并對(duì)2006-2012年季度資本流動(dòng)進(jìn)行Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)，運(yùn)用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)考察了各因素對(duì)短期資本流動(dòng)的影響，并運(yùn)用方差分解法評(píng)估了每一個(gè)變量沖擊的相對(duì)影響程度。本文主要對(duì)2012年短期資本流動(dòng)的新情況進(jìn)行了分析，經(jīng)過實(shí)證得出，中外利率差和匯率對(duì)短期資本流動(dòng)的影響較為顯著，體現(xiàn)出資本逐利性。 最后，文章從利率市場(chǎng)化、匯率市場(chǎng)化、短期資本監(jiān)管機(jī)制、國際收支平衡機(jī)制角度提出了針對(duì)性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the acceleration of the process of economic globalization and the deepening of financial liberalization in China, the scale of international short-term capital flows is extremely rapid, and there is no shortage of new situations, new trends and new problems. International short-term capital flows are characterized by high liquidity, difficult to monitor the direction of flow, strong speculation and so on. In addition, China's financial market system is not perfect, and the regulatory system is not perfect. It is bound to bring great hidden trouble to the economic development and financial security of our country. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the mechanism, trend and influencing factors of short-term capital flow. On the basis of reviewing the classical theory of international capital flow, this paper sums up the current situation and circulation channels of domestic short-term capital flows in 2012, and calculates the scale of net inflow of international short-term capital. Combined with the classical theory of capital flow and the actual situation of our country, the main influencing factors are determined, including short-term capital flow, domestic and foreign interest rate difference, real effective exchange rate index, economic growth amount, poor inflation rate, etc. The VAR econometric model of seven variables of real estate yield, and the Granger causality test of capital flow in 2006-2012 quarter, and the impact of various factors on short-term capital flow are investigated by using impulse response function. Variance decomposition method is used to evaluate the relative impact of each variable shock. This paper mainly analyzes the new situation of short-term capital flow in 2012. The empirical results show that the influence of interest rate difference and exchange rate on short-term capital flow is more significant, which reflects the profit-driven nature of capital. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the angle of interest rate marketization, exchange rate marketization, short-term capital supervision and balance of payments mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5

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