發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-04 15:53

  本文選題：國(guó)際熱錢 + 熱錢規(guī)模�。� 參考：《上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：在當(dāng)今全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的背景下,國(guó)際資本的流動(dòng)性在不斷增強(qiáng)。作為一種特殊的國(guó)際資本,近年來(lái)熱錢的國(guó)際間流動(dòng)無(wú)論從規(guī)模上還是從頻率上看都與日俱增。不可否認(rèn)熱錢在活躍國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)以及資本在全球的合理配置等方面具有一定的積極作用,但日益增長(zhǎng)的熱錢與國(guó)際金融動(dòng)蕩有著不可割裂的聯(lián)系,甚至誘發(fā)金融危機(jī),例如發(fā)歷史上1992年發(fā)生的歐洲貨幣體系危機(jī)、1994年發(fā)生的墨西哥金融危機(jī)以及1997年發(fā)生的東南亞金融危機(jī)都與熱錢的國(guó)際間流動(dòng)密切相關(guān)。 自加入WTO以來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速,對(duì)外開(kāi)放程度不斷增加。隨著對(duì)外貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng)以及資本的涌入,我國(guó)積累了大量的外匯儲(chǔ)備。與此同時(shí),國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)人民幣升值的預(yù)期日益強(qiáng)烈。2002年我國(guó)國(guó)際收支平衡表中“凈誤差與遺漏”項(xiàng)目由負(fù)轉(zhuǎn)正,這表明熱錢正通過(guò)各種渠道涌入中國(guó),其中不乏通過(guò)多種途徑投機(jī)人民幣資產(chǎn),期望通過(guò)人民幣的升值獲取高額收益。盡管目前熱錢的大量流入已經(jīng)得到相關(guān)部門的重視,且出臺(tái)了不少監(jiān)管措施,但隨著人民幣升值壓力的逐漸加大,熱錢的流入趨勢(shì)有增無(wú)減,并出現(xiàn)了一些新的特點(diǎn)。為充分應(yīng)對(duì)熱錢流入帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響,深入研究熱錢流入的渠道規(guī)模以其對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的影響具有重要意義。 本文論述分為三個(gè)部分：第一部分主要是探討熱錢的概念,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)當(dāng)今流入中國(guó)的熱錢規(guī)模進(jìn)行合理的估計(jì),如何對(duì)貿(mào)易順差和FDI中隱藏的熱錢進(jìn)行估算是該部分的重點(diǎn)；第二部分闡述熱錢的影響,該部分闡述三方面影響,一是對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響,二是對(duì)貨幣政策和匯率政策的影響,三是對(duì)制造業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。其中對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響是研究的重點(diǎn),會(huì)在后文中輔以實(shí)證研究；最后一部分主要針對(duì)熱錢的監(jiān)管提出意見(jiàn),力求提出有效可行的建設(shè)性意見(jiàn)。
[Abstract]:In the context of global economic integration, the liquidity of international capital is increasing. As a special international capital, the international flow of hot money is increasing in scale and frequency. There is no denying that hot money plays a positive role in activating the international financial market and the rational allocation of capital in the world, but the growing hot money has an inextricable relationship with the international financial turmoil and even induces the financial crisis. For example, the crisis of the European monetary system in 1992, the Mexican financial crisis in 1994 and the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 are closely related to the international flow of hot money. Since China's entry into WTO, China's economy has developed rapidly and the degree of opening to the outside world has been increasing. With the growth of foreign trade and the influx of capital, China has accumulated a large amount of foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the expectation of RMB appreciation at home and abroad is increasingly strong. In 2002, the "net errors and omissions" items in China's balance of payments account changed from negative to positive, indicating that hot money is pouring into China through various channels. Many of them speculate on RMB assets through a variety of channels, hoping to gain high returns through RMB appreciation. Although a large number of hot money inflows have been paid attention to by relevant departments and many regulatory measures have been issued, but with the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation, the inflow trend of hot money has increased and some new features have emerged. In order to fully deal with the negative impact of hot money inflow, it is of great significance to study the channel scale of hot money inflow and its impact on Chinese economy. This paper is divided into three parts: the first part mainly discusses the concept of hot money, and on the basis of this, it makes a reasonable estimate of the scale of hot money flowing into China. How to estimate the trade surplus and the hidden hot money in FDI is the focus of this part. The second part expounds the influence of hot money, this part expounds the influence of three aspects, one is the influence on asset price, the other is the influence on monetary policy and exchange rate policy. Third, the impact on the structure of the manufacturing industry. The impact on asset prices is the focus of the study, which will be supplemented by empirical research; the last part mainly focuses on the supervision of hot money, and tries to put forward effective and feasible constructive suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5

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