基于Box-Cox轉(zhuǎn)換的Hedonic模型在房產(chǎn)稅稅基評(píng)估中的應(yīng)用研究
本文選題:房產(chǎn)稅稅基 切入點(diǎn):特征價(jià)格模型 出處:《福州大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文
【摘要】:在現(xiàn)階段的中國(guó),房地產(chǎn)的價(jià)格具有多重壟斷性的特點(diǎn),其供給多是滿足高收入人群的居住和投機(jī)需求,而非普通民眾的基本住宅保障需求。所以,這需要我國(guó)政府實(shí)施適當(dāng)?shù)囊?guī)制手段來抑制房?jī)r(jià)的過快增長(zhǎng)及提供具有社會(huì)保障性的住房來滿足人民最基本的生存需要。與前階段連續(xù)出臺(tái)的干擾市場(chǎng)的行政干預(yù)相比,我們認(rèn)為物業(yè)稅的開征將更符合市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序建立的要求。但物業(yè)稅改革方案為何遲遲沒能落地呢?其關(guān)鍵就在于中國(guó)缺乏一個(gè)切實(shí)可行且公允公正的房產(chǎn)稅稅基評(píng)估體系。在國(guó)外,特征價(jià)格模型被用于房產(chǎn)稅稅基評(píng)估領(lǐng)域由來已久;而在我國(guó),卻鮮有資產(chǎn)評(píng)估機(jī)構(gòu)將其運(yùn)用在日常實(shí)踐中。究其原因,筆者認(rèn)為是我國(guó)缺乏一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)、相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)資料更是有限。所以,本研究打算從我國(guó)國(guó)情出發(fā),在不影響評(píng)估效果的基礎(chǔ)上,減少數(shù)據(jù)信息的收集量,為我國(guó)房產(chǎn)稅稅基評(píng)估體系的建立提供現(xiàn)實(shí)的指導(dǎo)意義。本文是在基于主體變量特征價(jià)格模型的研究基礎(chǔ)上,通過引入Box-Cox轉(zhuǎn)換對(duì)原模型加以優(yōu)化,構(gòu)建出基于Box-Cox轉(zhuǎn)換和主體變量的特征價(jià)格模型。本研究首先運(yùn)用了基于主體變量的Hedonic模型來計(jì)算特征變量的價(jià)格;其次采用Box-Cox轉(zhuǎn)換來優(yōu)化的原模型。期間,將兩個(gè)模型進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)過Box-Cox轉(zhuǎn)換的特征價(jià)格模型在顯著性上優(yōu)于前者。本文突破了以往研究人員需要投入大量精力去采集小區(qū)層次(區(qū)位和鄰里環(huán)境特征)信息的常態(tài),簡(jiǎn)化了數(shù)據(jù)的收集范圍;同時(shí)克服了直接運(yùn)用特征因素建立模型所面臨的樣本數(shù)據(jù)少、解釋變量難以涵蓋所有隱含特征的困難;在總結(jié)了前人對(duì)建筑特征研究的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇了52個(gè)變量作為本文住宅特征的指標(biāo)體系。最后,以福州市晉安區(qū)五四北新店板塊的二手房作為研究對(duì)象,取得有效樣本356個(gè),運(yùn)用改進(jìn)的特征價(jià)格模型對(duì)二手房數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。通過回歸分析,確立了各小區(qū)的基準(zhǔn)均價(jià);并在此基礎(chǔ)上,明確了樓層、總層、景觀、間距、裝修、臥室、客廳、廚房、衛(wèi)生間等變量對(duì)特定房屋的價(jià)格調(diào)整大小。本研究主要成果如下:(1)構(gòu)建了引入小區(qū)變量的住宅特征指標(biāo)體系;(2)優(yōu)化了引入主體變量的多元線性回歸模型,構(gòu)建了福州市住宅特征價(jià)格模型;(3)本文將福州住宅市場(chǎng)作為單一市場(chǎng),分析得出住宅各特征的價(jià)格調(diào)整系數(shù)。
[Abstract]:In China at the present stage, the price of real estate is characterized by many monopolies. The supply of real estate is mostly to meet the housing and speculative needs of high-income people, rather than the basic housing security needs of ordinary people. This requires our government to implement appropriate regulatory measures to curb the excessive growth of house prices and to provide housing with social security to meet the most basic survival needs of the people. We think that the introduction of property tax will be more in line with the requirements of the establishment of market economic order. The key lies in the lack of a feasible and fair property tax base assessment system in China. In foreign countries, the characteristic price model has been used in the field of property tax base assessment for a long time. However, few asset appraisal organizations apply it in daily practice. The author thinks that there is a lack of a unified database of real estate industry in our country, and the relevant statistical data are even limited. Therefore, this study intends to proceed from the national conditions of our country. On the basis of not affecting the evaluation effect, the collection of data information is reduced, which provides practical guidance for the establishment of the property tax base evaluation system in China. This paper is based on the study of the characteristic price model based on the main variables. By introducing Box-Cox transformation to optimize the original model, the feature price model based on Box-Cox transformation and principal variable is constructed. Firstly, the Hedonic model based on principal variable is used to calculate the price of feature variable. Secondly, the original model is optimized by Box-Cox transformation. During this period, the two models are compared and analyzed. It is found that the feature price model transformed by Box-Cox is more significant than the former. This paper breaks through the normal situation in which researchers need to devote a lot of energy to collecting the information of community level (location and neighborhood environment). It simplifies the scope of data collection, and overcomes the difficulty of using feature factors directly to build models with less sample data and less explanatory variables to cover all implicit features. On the basis of summarizing the previous researches on architectural features, In this paper, 52 variables are selected as the index system of the residential characteristics. Finally, the second-hand housing in the North Xindian Plate of the May fourth quarter of Fuzhou City is taken as the research object, and 356 effective samples are obtained. Using the improved characteristic price model to carry on the demonstration research to the second-hand house data. Through the regression analysis, has established the standard average price of each district, and on this basis, has defined the floor, the total floor, the landscape, the spacing, the decoration, the bedroom, the living room, The main results of this study are as follows: 1) A residential characteristic index system with the introduction of community variables is constructed, and the multivariate linear regression model with the introduction of main variables is optimized. This paper takes Fuzhou housing market as a single market, and analyzes the price adjustment coefficient of housing characteristics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:福州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F299.23;F812.42
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