本文選題：農(nóng)村信貸　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　出處：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：河北省是一個(gè)農(nóng)村人口和農(nóng)村區(qū)域都超過(guò)百分之六十的農(nóng)業(yè)大省，“三農(nóng)”問(wèn)題，即農(nóng)業(yè)、農(nóng)村和農(nóng)民問(wèn)題始終是全省發(fā)展的根本問(wèn)題，而解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題的重要措施就是加大農(nóng)村信貸投入力度和優(yōu)化農(nóng)村信貸結(jié)構(gòu)。然而，農(nóng)村信貸發(fā)展會(huì)在多大程度上影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)，現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)尚未做深入的實(shí)證研究，這正是本文選題的意義所在。 本文首先從理論上分析了農(nóng)村信貸在農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中所起的作用。接著利用統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和問(wèn)卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，定量分析了農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用，系統(tǒng)討論了河北省農(nóng)村信貸在規(guī)模、效率和結(jié)構(gòu)方面存在的問(wèn)題，以期為河北省農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展提供理論支持和現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)。 本文研究的主要內(nèi)容分為五部分，首先對(duì)農(nóng)村信貸的理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行闡釋。在理清信貸、信貸資金運(yùn)動(dòng)與農(nóng)村信貸的概念基礎(chǔ)上，系統(tǒng)梳理了農(nóng)村信貸發(fā)展的相關(guān)理論，從早期的農(nóng)業(yè)信貸補(bǔ)貼理論，到金融自由化時(shí)期的農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)理論，再到近期的不完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)市場(chǎng)理論，對(duì)這些理論的背景、基本假設(shè)前提、政策主張以及不足之處一一進(jìn)行了分析。 接下來(lái)闡述河北省農(nóng)村信貸的現(xiàn)狀以及農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。從農(nóng)村信用社的貸款余額以及信貸結(jié)構(gòu)(鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)貸款與農(nóng)業(yè)貸款)兩個(gè)方面分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)河北省農(nóng)村信貸一直呈增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)。對(duì)河北省農(nóng)村信貸與農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)變化的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，農(nóng)村生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)的波動(dòng)總是滯后于農(nóng)村貸款增長(zhǎng)的波動(dòng)。 為了對(duì)“農(nóng)村信貸是否影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、滯后幾期影響、影響程度有多大”等問(wèn)題做進(jìn)一步的實(shí)證研究，本文從農(nóng)村信貸發(fā)展的規(guī)模、效率和結(jié)構(gòu)三個(gè)方面對(duì)河北省農(nóng)村信貸進(jìn)行分析，并利用格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析和方差分解分析的方法，得出農(nóng)村信貸發(fā)展的規(guī)模、效率和結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有明顯的格蘭杰影響。其中農(nóng)村信貸規(guī)模對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用最為明顯，而信貸效率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響越來(lái)越重要，農(nóng)村信貸結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)度是最小的，但是它的微弱的增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)也不能小覷。 繼而，本文通過(guò)對(duì)河北省新樂(lè)市赤支村的問(wèn)卷調(diào)查，分析得出大部分的農(nóng)戶貸款金額較小，貸款期限較短（一般都在5年以內(nèi)），貸款利率較高（平均值為12.05%），而且大部分的貸款戶將貸款用于做生意，利率相對(duì)更高。所調(diào)查的貸款戶家庭年收入絕大部分在3萬(wàn)以上，，年收入在10萬(wàn)以上的占16%，說(shuō)明信用社選擇發(fā)放貸款的農(nóng)戶收入比較高，具備還款能力。然后利用列聯(lián)表分析法，得出接受備擇假設(shè)的結(jié)論，即農(nóng)戶的貸款金額與家庭年收入有關(guān)，并分析得出貸款金額為1-5萬(wàn)時(shí)，對(duì)家庭年收入3-5萬(wàn)的農(nóng)戶影響最大，說(shuō)明信貸金額對(duì)農(nóng)戶的家庭年收入有影響。 最后，針對(duì)實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果，提出了進(jìn)一步提高信貸資金利用效率、優(yōu)化信貸結(jié)構(gòu)、促進(jìn)農(nóng)村信貸發(fā)展、以更好地推動(dòng)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Hebei Province is a large agricultural province with a rural population and more than 60% rural areas. The "three rural" problems, that is, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, have always been the fundamental problems in the development of the province. However, the extent to which the development of rural credit will affect the economic growth has not been further studied in the literature. This is the significance of this topic. This paper first analyzes the role of rural credit in the development of rural economy in theory, and then makes use of statistical data and questionnaire data to quantitatively analyze the role of rural credit in rural economic growth. This paper systematically discusses the problems existing in the scale, efficiency and structure of rural credit in Hebei Province, in order to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for the development of rural economy in Hebei Province. The main content of this paper is divided into five parts. Firstly, the theoretical basis of rural credit is explained. On the basis of clarifying the concepts of credit, credit fund movement and rural credit, this paper systematically combs the relevant theories of rural credit development. From the early agricultural credit subsidy theory to the rural financial market theory in the period of financial liberalization, to the recent incomplete competitive market theory, the background of these theories, the basic hypothetical premise, The policy proposals and shortcomings are analyzed one by one. Next, it expounds the present situation of rural credit in Hebei Province and the rural economic situation. It analyzes the loan balance and the credit structure of rural credit cooperatives (township enterprises loans and agricultural loans). The research on the relationship between rural credit and rural economic growth in Hebei Province shows that the fluctuation of rural gross domestic product always lags behind the fluctuation of rural loan growth. In order to make a further empirical study on whether rural credit affects economic growth, lag several periods of influence, and how big the impact is, this paper starts with the scale of rural credit development. The efficiency and structure of rural credit in Hebei Province are analyzed, and the scale of rural credit development is obtained by Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis. Efficiency and structure have obvious Granger influence on rural economic growth, among which the scale of rural credit has the most obvious effect on economic growth, and the impact of credit efficiency on economic growth is more and more important. The contribution of rural credit structure to economic growth is the least, but its weak growth trend can not be underestimated. Then, based on the questionnaire survey of Chizhi Village in Xinle City, Hebei Province, it is concluded that most of the farmers' loan amount is relatively small. The term of the loan is shorter (usually less than five years, the interest rate is higher (the average is 12.05), and most of the lenders use their loans to do business, the interest rate is relatively high. The majority of the households in the survey earn more than 30,000 per year. The annual income of 16 households whose annual income is more than 100,000 shows that the farmers selected by the credit cooperatives to issue loans have a higher income and have the ability to repay. Then, by using the column table analysis method, the conclusion of accepting the alternative hypothesis is drawn. That is, the amount of credit is related to the annual income of the household, and the analysis shows that the amount of credit has the greatest impact on the annual income of the household when the amount of the loan is 10 to 50, 000, indicating that the amount of credit has an impact on the annual income of the household. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to further improve the efficiency of using credit funds, optimize the credit structure, and promote the development of rural credit so as to better promote the rural economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.43;F327

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