本文關(guān)鍵詞： 保障性住房 BT項(xiàng)目 項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險 模糊影響圖 風(fēng)險識別 風(fēng)險評價　出處：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：BT模式作為一種吸引社會投資、解決保障性房建設(shè)關(guān)鍵瓶頸即資金需求的有效方式，近年來在保障性住房建設(shè)中得到了嘗試性應(yīng)用。大型保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目具有涉及面廣、法律關(guān)系復(fù)雜、影響因素多、工程量大、工期長、占用資金龐大、回購期長、融資結(jié)構(gòu)復(fù)雜導(dǎo)致存在大量的不確定風(fēng)險性因素等特點(diǎn)，決定了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險性。在實(shí)踐中，對這些風(fēng)險因素及其影響關(guān)系的分析、評價和管理，還很薄弱。系統(tǒng)科學(xué)地對保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行析與評價，從而進(jìn)行有效控制與管理，最大限度地降低項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險，以及完善保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目管理理論，都具有重要的理論意義和實(shí)踐價值。 本文針對保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險控制和管理所存在的問題，結(jié)合BT項(xiàng)目的特點(diǎn)，在研究了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險特性的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用風(fēng)險分析與控制理論，特別是針對保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險影響關(guān)系復(fù)雜，傳統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險分析工具不能直觀明了地表征復(fù)雜的風(fēng)險問題，本文基于風(fēng)險評價分析理論和影響圖理論，對保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險評價問題進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)深入研究。首先，采用影響圖方法對保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目實(shí)施過程中的風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了全面分析識別，建立了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險空間和風(fēng)險檢測表；然后，運(yùn)用模糊影響圖理論，深入研究了各風(fēng)險因素之間的相互影響關(guān)系，構(gòu)建了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險影響圖，建立了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險模糊影響圖評價模型；進(jìn)一步，以重慶市“民心佳園”公租房項(xiàng)目在BT建設(shè)模式下的運(yùn)作為例，運(yùn)用保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險模糊影響圖評價模型，對BT項(xiàng)目最敏感的回購風(fēng)險問題進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析和風(fēng)險評價，在此基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果提出了相應(yīng)的“民心佳園”公租房項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險控制的建議。最后，研究了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險評價的計(jì)算機(jī)評價算法，建立了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險評價系統(tǒng)。 本文基于模糊影響圖理論建立了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險模糊影響圖風(fēng)險評價模型，并應(yīng)用此模型對“民心佳園”公租房BT建設(shè)模式下的回購風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了評價，，這在保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險分析和控制方面是一種新的探索，完善和豐富了保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險識別和評價理論，同時為推進(jìn)我國保障性住房BT融資項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險的有效控制與管理的工程實(shí)踐提供了借鑒。 本論文結(jié)合重慶市社會科學(xué)規(guī)劃項(xiàng)目《重慶市保障性住房可持續(xù)建設(shè)BT融資模式及風(fēng)險控制理論研究》（編號：2011YBGL112）完成。
[Abstract]:BT model as a way to attract social investment, effective way to solve the bottleneck of housing construction is key to ensure the funding needs, in recent years in the construction of affordable housing has been applied to large affordable housing BT financing project has involved in a wide range of complex legal relationship, many influencing factors, large quantities, long construction period, take the huge funds, repurchase period, complicated financing structure leading to the existence of uncertain risk factors such as a large number of features, determines the risk of affordable housing BT financing project. In practice, analysis of the relationship between these risk factors and its influence, evaluation and management, is still very weak. The system of affordable housing scientifically BT project risk analysis and evaluation, so as to carry out effective control and management, reduce project risk, and improve the affordable housing BT financing project management theory, has the important theory Meaning and practical value.
The existence of risk control and management based on affordable housing BT financing project problems, combined with the characteristics of BT project, based on the affordable housing BT financing project risk characteristics, using the theory of risk analysis and control, especially for the impact of risk affordable housing BT financing project is complex, the traditional risk analysis the tool cannot directly characterize complex problems and clear risk, the risk assessment theory and effect based on the theory of risk assessment of affordable housing BT financing projects carried out in-depth study of the system. Firstly, the influence diagram method were analyzed to identify risk factors in the process of the implementation of affordable housing BT financing project, set up the affordable housing BT financing project risk and risk detection table space; then, using fuzzy influence diagram theory, deeply researched various risk factors The relationship between them, the impact of building affordable housing BT project financing risk, build affordable housing BT financing project risk fuzzy influence diagram evaluation model; further, taking Chongqing city's "Minxin garden" public housing project in the construction of the BT mode as an example, the use of risk of affordable housing BT financing project fuzzy influence diagram evaluation model, the most sensitive issue repurchase risk of BT project carried out a detailed analysis and risk assessment, based on the risk assessment results and put forward the corresponding "Minxin garden" public housing project risk control suggestions. Finally, the algorithm of computer evaluation of risk assessment of affordable housing BT financing project to establish a risk assessment system, affordable housing BT financing project.
In this paper, fuzzy influence diagram theory was established based on the affordable housing BT financing project risk fuzzy influence diagram risk evaluation model, and apply this model to "Minxin garden" BT of public rental housing construction under the mode of repurchase risk evaluation, which is a new exploration in the affordable housing BT financing project risk analysis and control, improve and enrich the risk identification and evaluation of affordable housing BT project financing theory, and provides a reference for the engineering practice. The effective control and management to promote China's security risk of BT project financing of housing.
This paper is based on the Chongqing social science planning project, the BT financing mode and risk control theory of Chongqing's affordable housing construction (2011YBGL112).

【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.233.4;F275

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