本文關(guān)鍵詞： 國際熱錢 房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格 分位數(shù)計(jì)量模型　出處：《湘潭大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化和金融自由化進(jìn)程的加快為國際資本在全球范圍內(nèi)自由流動(dòng)提供了便利，隨著人民幣升值預(yù)期的加劇和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速發(fā)展，大規(guī)模的國際熱錢蜂擁流入我國。在此期間，我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，巨大的利潤空間吸引了國際熱錢流入我國房地產(chǎn)市場，使得該行業(yè)投機(jī)盛行，助長了我國房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格的高漲。大規(guī)模國際熱錢流入或流出我國房地產(chǎn)市場容易導(dǎo)致我國房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格的劇烈波動(dòng)，而房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)，關(guān)乎國計(jì)民生，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的大幅上升或下跌會(huì)嚴(yán)重影響我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定。 國際熱錢流動(dòng)影響房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制分為直接傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制和間接傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)包括流動(dòng)性效應(yīng)、擠出效應(yīng)和財(cái)富效應(yīng)。從這幾年我國國際熱錢流動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀和房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格的波動(dòng)狀況來看，國際熱錢一方面促進(jìn)了我國房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展和價(jià)格的上升，另一方面也加劇了我國房地產(chǎn)市場供求失衡。 利用國際熱錢規(guī)模、全國房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格、一線城市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和二線城市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格四個(gè)變量2005年1月到2012年12月的季度數(shù)據(jù)分別建立實(shí)證模型，從實(shí)證角度對(duì)國際熱錢流動(dòng)與我國房地產(chǎn)市場價(jià)格波動(dòng)的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究，，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)熱錢流動(dòng)對(duì)我國房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)具有顯著的影響：從城市等級(jí)上看，熱錢流動(dòng)對(duì)一線城市房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響更大，熱錢投機(jī)偏好于一線城市的房地產(chǎn)市場；從房價(jià)水平上看，逐利性使得熱錢對(duì)低房價(jià)具有正影響，而對(duì)于高房價(jià)具有負(fù)影響。因此，我們認(rèn)為我國監(jiān)管當(dāng)局在制定房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)調(diào)控政策時(shí)要注意政策的靈活性和針對(duì)性，并對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的熱錢流動(dòng)實(shí)行有效監(jiān)管，防止大規(guī)模熱錢流動(dòng)對(duì)我國房價(jià)的穩(wěn)定造成影響，杜絕由熱錢導(dǎo)致的房價(jià)泡沫。
[Abstract]:The acceleration of the process of global economic integration and financial liberalization has facilitated the free movement of international capital around the world. With the intensification of the expectation of RMB appreciation and the rapid development of China's economy. During this period, the real estate industry of our country develops rapidly, the huge profit space attracts the international hot money to flow into the real estate market of our country, causes this profession speculation to prevail. Large scale international hot money inflow or outflow of China's real estate market will easily lead to China's real estate market prices of violent fluctuations. The real estate industry is the leading industry of our economy, which is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. The rise or fall of real estate prices will seriously affect the development of our macroeconomic and social stability. The conduction mechanism of international hot money flow affecting the real estate market price can be divided into direct transmission mechanism and indirect transmission mechanism. The conduction effect includes liquidity effect. According to the current situation of international hot money flow and the fluctuation of the real estate market price, the international hot money on the one hand promoted the development of the real estate market and the rise of the price in our country. On the other hand, it also intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand in our real estate market. Make use of international hot money scale, national real estate market price. Real estate prices of first-tier cities and second-tier cities real estate prices four variables from January 2005 to December 2012 quarterly data respectively established empirical models. From the perspective of empirical research on the relationship between international hot money flow and real estate market price fluctuations in China, we find that hot money flows have a significant impact on real estate price fluctuations in China: from the city level. Hot money flows have a greater impact on real estate prices in first-tier cities, and hot money speculation prefers the real estate market in first-tier cities; From the point of view of house price level, profit driven makes hot money have positive effect on low house price, but negative effect on high house price. We believe that our country's regulatory authorities should pay attention to the flexibility and pertinence of the policy when formulating the regulation policy of the real estate industry, and carry out effective supervision on the hot money flow in the real estate industry. Prevent the large-scale hot money flow to our country house price stability influence, put an end to the house price bubble caused by hot money.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F831.7;F299.23

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