本文選題：電信重組改革 + 全要素生產(chǎn)率�。� 參考：《北京郵電大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：繼2008年電信業(yè)重組以及3G牌照的發(fā)放,使中國(guó)移動(dòng)、中國(guó)聯(lián)通和中國(guó)電信三家均成為全業(yè)務(wù)電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商之后,2013年又宣布4G牌照的發(fā)放,無(wú)疑將激發(fā)電信業(yè)又一輪的投資熱潮和促進(jìn)電信業(yè)的更激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),然而,改革前后中國(guó)電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力如何?有無(wú)改善以及如何提升其國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力?中國(guó)電信業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)是依賴于投資驅(qū)動(dòng)還是效率的提升?面對(duì)國(guó)家和國(guó)際新的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展環(huán)境,中國(guó)電信業(yè)該如何發(fā)展以順應(yīng)新形勢(shì),這就產(chǎn)生對(duì)中國(guó)電信業(yè)的改革和效率進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究的需求,通過(guò)研究工作既可以擴(kuò)展中國(guó)電信業(yè)理論研究的內(nèi)涵,同時(shí)也可以對(duì)中國(guó)電信業(yè)發(fā)展的軌跡進(jìn)行分析和描述,從而對(duì)未來(lái)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文梳理了國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),以此為基礎(chǔ)再結(jié)合定性的研究和定量的研究,并同等重要的應(yīng)用了規(guī)范研究和實(shí)證研究,選用了非參數(shù)、隨機(jī)前沿生產(chǎn)函數(shù)等前沿?cái)?shù)學(xué)方法,對(duì)中國(guó)電信業(yè)技術(shù)效率(靜態(tài))和全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)(動(dòng)態(tài))進(jìn)行研究,并分別從業(yè)務(wù)量和用戶數(shù)兩個(gè)角度較全面地區(qū)分析,然后進(jìn)一步分析了內(nèi)外生性影響因素,考察電信改革對(duì)中國(guó)電信業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的影響及電信業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)力。詳細(xì)來(lái)講,本文主要研究?jī)?nèi)容包括以下幾個(gè)方面： 第一、相關(guān)理論與方法綜述。首先介紹了中國(guó)電信業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程及改革概況,分析了本文研究的背景、目的及意義,然后給出了本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容,結(jié)合相關(guān)理論最后針對(duì)本文的研究方法進(jìn)行了簡(jiǎn)要介紹、系統(tǒng)梳理和歸納總結(jié)。 第二、中國(guó)電信業(yè)改革、區(qū)域差異及技術(shù)效率研究。首先選用基于DEA的BC2模型；其次,運(yùn)用排除外部影響因素的三階段DEA模型,分別以基于經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的業(yè)務(wù)量為產(chǎn)出和基于社會(huì)效益的以用戶為產(chǎn)出的不同評(píng)價(jià)方案,對(duì)中國(guó)電信業(yè)2000-2012年間的效率進(jìn)行了分析；最后,從電信改革政策、電信改革階段、區(qū)域差異等三方面分別對(duì)比分析了技術(shù)效率、純技術(shù)效率和規(guī)模效率的變化。指出從改革、價(jià)格上限規(guī)制來(lái)看,歷次改革均有或正或負(fù)的較小且短暫的影響,但從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,均對(duì)效率的提升起到了一定的促進(jìn)作用,而技術(shù)效率的主要貢獻(xiàn)者為規(guī)模效率,純技術(shù)無(wú)效率是導(dǎo)致技術(shù)無(wú)效率的直接原因,且技術(shù)效率、純技術(shù)效率、規(guī)模效率均呈現(xiàn)明顯的區(qū)域特征,而外部環(huán)境是影響純技術(shù)效率不同的主要原因。 第三、中國(guó)電信業(yè)改革、全要素生產(chǎn)率及區(qū)域差異研究。利用非參數(shù)的Malmquist指數(shù)和參數(shù)的SFA兩種方法,對(duì)2001-2012年間中國(guó)電信業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率的變動(dòng)進(jìn)行測(cè)算,在進(jìn)一步分析其時(shí)序特征及空間差異的基礎(chǔ)上,深入分析差異的演變規(guī)律和內(nèi)在機(jī)制,并實(shí)證分析經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革對(duì)電信行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的影響。整體來(lái)講,2001-2012年中國(guó)電信業(yè)務(wù)量和全要素生產(chǎn)率均呈現(xiàn)了較大的增長(zhǎng),且電信業(yè)務(wù)量的增加主要由全要素生產(chǎn)率的增加引起,已完成從投資驅(qū)動(dòng)型向效率驅(qū)動(dòng)型的轉(zhuǎn)型,全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)主要由技術(shù)進(jìn)步引起,而技術(shù)效率變化較小,且規(guī)模效率基本處于規(guī)模有效狀態(tài),具有微弱的增長(zhǎng)。電信改革措施從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看均對(duì)TFP增長(zhǎng)有促進(jìn)作用,但產(chǎn)出的增速放緩,且對(duì)技術(shù)進(jìn)步、技術(shù)效率、規(guī)模效率等有短暫的抑制作用。從時(shí)序特性方面分析TFP增長(zhǎng)發(fā)現(xiàn)中國(guó)電信業(yè)呈現(xiàn)明顯的階段性表現(xiàn),技術(shù)進(jìn)步和技術(shù)效率的有交互帶動(dòng)的作用,盡管技術(shù)效率的影響相對(duì)較為微小,這種階段性特性與中國(guó)電信業(yè)的改革相應(yīng),但也出現(xiàn)了新特點(diǎn),本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)2011-2012階段出現(xiàn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步影響放緩,并顯現(xiàn)技術(shù)效率負(fù)影響,與之相應(yīng)OTT業(yè)務(wù)的迅猛發(fā)展成為解釋的原因。從空間(區(qū)域)特性方面看,中國(guó)電信業(yè)各省份電信業(yè)TFP增長(zhǎng)率存在較大的空間差異,東、中、西部呈現(xiàn)明顯的發(fā)展層次水平,中西部電信業(yè)水平低于東部地區(qū),但追趕效應(yīng)明顯,東、中、西部三大地區(qū)電信業(yè)發(fā)展出現(xiàn)“俱樂(lè)部”趨同趨勢(shì)。進(jìn)一步,本文利用2001-2012年連續(xù)數(shù)據(jù)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合當(dāng)前熱點(diǎn)的混合所有制改革,嘗試性地對(duì)中國(guó)未來(lái)電信業(yè)的混合所有制改革提出了建議。 第四、中國(guó)電信業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的外生性影響因素分析。運(yùn)用面板回歸對(duì)影響全要素生產(chǎn)率的外生性因素進(jìn)行了分析。指出經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平及工業(yè)化程度均在一定程度上促進(jìn)了電信業(yè)TFP增長(zhǎng)率的提升,人口規(guī)模及人口密度對(duì)電信業(yè)各效率及增長(zhǎng)率基本存在促進(jìn)的正向作用,人力資本與科技創(chuàng)新均沒(méi)有對(duì)電信業(yè)效率提升產(chǎn)生顯著的促進(jìn)作用,反而有抑制效率提升的趨勢(shì)。雖然數(shù)據(jù)有限,主要是時(shí)間不夠長(zhǎng),但本文也把OTT業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)新作為外生性因素進(jìn)行了研究,顯示OTT業(yè)務(wù)也沒(méi)有對(duì)電信業(yè)效率提升產(chǎn)生顯著的促進(jìn)作用,反而有抑制效率提升的趨勢(shì)。市場(chǎng)化程度對(duì)電信業(yè)TFP增長(zhǎng)率等效率具有顯著的促進(jìn)作用。 第五、中國(guó)電信業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)的內(nèi)生性影響因素分析。電信業(yè)從業(yè)人員的人力資本,在一定程度上可以促進(jìn)技術(shù)進(jìn)步進(jìn)而提升TFP及TFPCH,電信業(yè)研發(fā)投入可以通過(guò)對(duì)技術(shù)進(jìn)步的提升來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高,但對(duì)技術(shù)效率產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響,勞均資本可以有效促進(jìn)電信業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)率、技術(shù)進(jìn)步率、技術(shù)效率及進(jìn)步率的提升,國(guó)際貿(mào)易與技術(shù)溢出因素可以顯著提升中國(guó)電信業(yè)的全要素生產(chǎn)率及其增長(zhǎng)率,進(jìn)而增強(qiáng)中國(guó)電信業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,產(chǎn)業(yè)化程度可以顯著提升中國(guó)的社會(huì)效益,但以犧牲經(jīng)濟(jì)效益為代價(jià),移動(dòng)對(duì)固定的替代率可以充分發(fā)揮移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)密度經(jīng)濟(jì)性及規(guī)模性,網(wǎng)絡(luò)外部性等特征,顯著提升中國(guó)電信業(yè)的全要素生產(chǎn)率及其構(gòu)成因素,強(qiáng)化中國(guó)電信的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,政策性因素?zé)o論是從社會(huì)效益(用戶數(shù))的角度,還是從經(jīng)濟(jì)效益(業(yè)務(wù)收入)的角度來(lái)衡量,均是失敗的。因此,需要一些非對(duì)稱管制等新政策的實(shí)施來(lái)徹底改變目前的不均衡狀態(tài)。 本文研究初步對(duì)中國(guó)電信業(yè)的效率及影響因素進(jìn)行了較系統(tǒng)的研究,具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,但是由于時(shí)間和資源獲取等方面的限制,還存在諸多不足之處。將在以后的工作、學(xué)習(xí)過(guò)程中進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行深入研究。
[Abstract]:After the restructuring of the telecommunications industry and the issuance of 3G licenses in 2008, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom have all become full business telecom operators. In 2013, the issuance of 4G licenses will undoubtedly stimulate another round of investment boom in the telecommunications industry and promote more intense competition in the telecommunications industry. However, the China Telecom operation before and after the reform What is the competitiveness of the business? Is it improved and how to improve its international competitiveness? Is the growth of the China Telecom industry dependent on investment driven or efficiency promotion? How to adapt to the new situation in the face of the new economic development environment of the country and the world, the China Telecom industry has carried out an empirical research on the reform and efficiency of the China Telecom industry. The research work can not only expand the connotation of the theoretical research of the China Telecom industry, but also analyze and describe the development path of the China Telecom industry, thus producing practical significance for the future development.
This paper has combed the relevant literature at home and abroad, based on the qualitative research and quantitative research, and equally important application of normative and empirical research, the selection of non parameter, stochastic frontier production function and other advanced mathematical methods, the research on the technical efficiency (static) and total factor productivity growth (dynamic) of the China Telecom industry (dynamic) In the end, we analyze the overall regional analysis from the business volume and the number of users, and then further analyze the internal and external factors, and examine the influence of the telecommunications reform on the growth of the China Telecom industry and the driving force of the growth of the telecom industry.
First, a summary of the related theories and methods. First, it introduces the development process and the general situation of the China Telecom industry, analyzes the background, purpose and significance of this study, and then gives the content of this study.
Second, China Telecom industry reform, regional differences and technical efficiency research. First of all, the BC2 model based on DEA is selected. Secondly, the three phase DEA model, which excludes external factors, is used to evaluate the output and social benefits based on the economic efficiency, and the China Telecom industry 2000-2012, respectively. The efficiency of the year was analyzed. Finally, the technical efficiency, the pure technical efficiency and the scale efficiency were compared and analyzed from three aspects such as the telecom reform policy, the telecom reform stage and the regional difference. The main contributors of technical efficiency are scale efficiency, and the rate of pure technology inefficiency is the direct cause of technological inefficiency, and the technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency have obvious regional characteristics, and the external environment is the main reason that affects the difference of pure technology efficiency.
Third, the China Telecom industry reform, the total factor productivity and regional differences. Using the non parametric Malmquist index and the parameters of the SFA two methods, the changes in the total factor productivity of the China Telecom industry in the period of 2001-2012 years are calculated. On the basis of further analysis of their temporal characteristics and spatial differences, the evolution rules of the differences are deeply analyzed. And the internal mechanism, and the empirical analysis of the impact of economic system reform on the growth of the telecommunications industry. In general, the 2001-2012 year China Telecom business volume and total factor productivity have shown greater growth, and the increase of telecom business volume is mainly caused by the increase of total factor productivity, and has completed the transformation from investment driven to efficiency driven. The growth of total factor productivity is mainly caused by technological progress, and the change of technical efficiency is small, and the efficiency of scale is basically in the state of scale and efficiency, which has a weak growth. In the long run, the telecom reform measures have a promoting effect on the growth of TFP, but the growth rate of the output is slow, and the technological progress, the technical efficiency, the scale efficiency and so on are short. According to the analysis of the time series characteristics, the TFP growth shows that the China Telecom industry shows a distinct stage performance, the technological progress and the technical efficiency have an interactive effect, although the effect of technical efficiency is relatively small, this stage characteristic is corresponding to the reform of the China Telecom industry, but the new characteristics are also presented. It is found that the 2011-2012 stage of the 2011-2012 stages of technological progress has slowed down, and shows the negative impact of technical efficiency. The rapid development of the corresponding OTT business has become an explanation. From the aspect of spatial (regional) characteristics, the TFP growth rate of the telecom industry in various provinces of the China Telecom has a large spatial difference, and the eastern, middle and western regions show a significant level of development. The level of telecom industry in the west is lower than that of the eastern region, but the pursuit effect is obvious. The trend of "club" convergence appears in the three major regions of East, middle and western regions. Further, on the basis of 2001-2012 year continuous data analysis, this paper tries to combine the mixed ownership reform of the current hot spot, and tries to make the mixed ownership of the future telecom industry in China tentatively. Suggestions were put forward in the reform.
Fourth, analysis of exogenous factors affecting the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in the China Telecom industry. Using panel regression to analyze the exogenous factors affecting the total factor productivity (TFP). It is pointed out that the level of economic development and the degree of industrialization have promoted the increase of the TFP growth rate in telecom industry to a certain extent, and the population size and population density to the telecommunications industry. The efficiency and growth rate have a positive positive effect on the promotion. Both human capital and technological innovation have no significant promotion effect on the efficiency promotion of telecom industry, but have a tendency to inhibit efficiency. Although the data are limited, the main reason is that the time is not long enough, but this paper also studies the OTT industry innovation as an exogenous factor, showing OT The T business has not significantly promoted the efficiency of the telecommunications industry, but has a tendency to increase its efficiency. The degree of marketization has a significant effect on the efficiency of the TFP growth rate of the telecom industry.
Fifth, the analysis of endogenous factors affecting the growth of total factor productivity in China Telecom industry. The human capital of the employees of the telecom industry can promote technological progress to improve the TFP and TFPCH to some extent. The investment in R & D of telecom industry can improve the total factor productivity by improving the technological progress, but it is productive for the technology efficiency. With negative impact, labor capital can effectively promote the total factor productivity growth rate, technological progress rate, technical efficiency and progress rate. International trade and technology spillovers can significantly enhance the total factor productivity and growth rate of the China Telecom industry, and then enhance the competitiveness of the China Telecom industry and the degree of industrialization. In order to significantly improve the social benefits of China, but at the expense of economic benefits, the mobility of the fixed rate of substitution can give full play to the economy and scale of the mobile network density, the externality of the network and so on. It can significantly improve the total factor productivity of the China Telecom industry and its constituent factors, strengthen the competitiveness of the China Telecom, and have no policy factors. It is a failure from the point of view of social benefits (the number of users) or from the perspective of economic benefits (business income). Therefore, the implementation of some new policies such as asymmetric control is needed to completely change the current imbalance.
This paper makes a systematic research on the efficiency and influencing factors of the China Telecom industry. It has a certain theoretical and practical significance, but there are still many shortcomings due to the limitation of time and resource acquisition. It will be further studied in the future work and in the process of learning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京郵電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F632

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