本文選題：電信業(yè)發(fā)展　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《北京郵電大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：信息經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代,電信業(yè)在信息擴(kuò)散和提升組織效率方面促進(jìn)了各行各業(yè)的發(fā)展,由此推動(dòng)了國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長。同樣,信息技術(shù)的高速發(fā)展也離不開國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)力支持。因此,有關(guān)電信業(yè)發(fā)展和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間關(guān)系的研究,受到眾多學(xué)者的關(guān)注。但是在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)期,電信業(yè)在發(fā)展過程中也會(huì)出現(xiàn)各種問題,從而在一定程度上影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。比如電信業(yè)發(fā)展初期,由于其身處自然壟斷地位缺乏自主提高服務(wù)效率的動(dòng)力,不能充分滿足國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要;電信業(yè)政企合一的管理體制不利于其提高產(chǎn)業(yè)效率而影響整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長等。因此,電信業(yè)在其發(fā)展過程中不斷進(jìn)行著各種改革,以期改革后的電信業(yè)能夠更好地服務(wù)于國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。那么,我國電信業(yè)的改革對電信業(yè)產(chǎn)生了什么影響?國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和電信業(yè)發(fā)展有什么關(guān)系?電信改革對于研究國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和電信業(yè)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系有沒有影響?我們需要對電信業(yè)進(jìn)行的四次政策改革進(jìn)行定量評價(jià),探討電信業(yè)和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)二者之間的關(guān)系,同時(shí)探討政策變革對研究電信業(yè)發(fā)展與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間關(guān)系的必要性。本文采用1978-2015年度電信業(yè)務(wù)總量和GDP數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。在研究方法上,采用干擾模型對我國四次電信改革進(jìn)行定量評價(jià),運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和ECM模型對兩變量之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究,在此過程中,對協(xié)整模型是否考慮政策變量影響的必要性進(jìn)行論述。經(jīng)過干擾模型的建立,將電信業(yè)四次政策改革效應(yīng)剝離,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):1994-1998年引入競爭、政企分離對電信業(yè)發(fā)揮積極作用;1999-2001年將中國電信縱向拆分,在拆分重組的三年時(shí)間里,電信業(yè)發(fā)展較前期有所回落,但其正向作用隨后展現(xiàn);2002-2004年中國電信南北拆分對電信業(yè)發(fā)揮了負(fù)向作用;2008-2009年電信市場“三足鼎立”,由于市場結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生較大變動(dòng),適應(yīng)期對電信業(yè)產(chǎn)生負(fù)向作用,但改革紅利隨著時(shí)間推移逐漸釋放。運(yùn)用ADF方法對兩變量進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)電信業(yè)務(wù)總量和GDP原序列均為二階差分平穩(wěn)序列,采用E-G兩步法對原序列一階差分變量進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),對比不考慮政策影響和考慮政策影響的兩個(gè)協(xié)整模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)考慮政策影響后的協(xié)整模型在計(jì)量模型上更具有優(yōu)勢,運(yùn)用考慮政策影響的協(xié)整關(guān)系建立誤差修正模型,探討了兩變量之間的長期均衡和短期波動(dòng)關(guān)系。通過實(shí)證分析,結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢,我們提出如下建議:(1)重視并推進(jìn)電信業(yè)在日常運(yùn)營中的改革,降低改革帶來的風(fēng)險(xiǎn);(2)加大電信行業(yè)的“供給側(cè)”改革,推動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)信息服務(wù)和能源、交通、教育等領(lǐng)域的共享共建;(3)積極推動(dòng)電信領(lǐng)域混合所有制改革進(jìn)程,促進(jìn)電信市場有效競爭。
[Abstract]:In the age of information economy, telecommunications industry has promoted the development of various industries in the aspects of information diffusion and improving organizational efficiency, thus promoting the rapid growth of the national economy. The rapid development of information technology is also inseparable from the strong support of the national economy. Therefore, the research on the relationship between the development of telecommunications industry and the growth of the national economy has attracted the attention of many scholars. However, in different economic periods, In the process of development, various problems will appear in the telecom industry, which will affect the economic growth to a certain extent. For example, in the early stage of the development of the telecommunications industry, because of its natural monopoly position, it lacks the impetus to improve the efficiency of its own service. It can not fully meet the needs of the development of national economy; the management system of the integration of government and enterprise is not conducive to the improvement of industrial efficiency and affects the overall economic growth. Therefore, the telecommunications industry is constantly carrying out various reforms in the process of its development. With a view to the reform of the telecommunications industry can better serve the development of the national economy. So, what has the impact of the reform of the telecommunications industry on the telecommunications industry? What is the relationship between the growth of the national economy and the development of the telecommunications industry? Does the telecommunication reform have any impact on the study of the relationship between the national economic growth and the development of the telecommunications industry? We need to quantitatively evaluate the four policy reforms carried out in the telecommunications industry and explore the relationship between the telecommunications industry and the national economy. At the same time, it discusses the necessity of policy change to study the relationship between the development of telecommunication industry and the growth of national economy. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the total amount of telecommunication services and GDP data from 1978 to 2015. The interference model is used to quantitatively evaluate the fourth telecom reform in China, and the cointegration test and ECM model are used to study the relationship between the two variables. The necessity of considering the influence of policy variables on the cointegration model is discussed. Through the establishment of the interference model, the effects of four policy reforms in the telecommunications industry are separated, and it is found that the competition was introduced into the world from 1994 to 1998. The separation of government and enterprises has played an active role in the telecommunications industry. During the three years of separation and reorganization of China Telecom, the development of the telecommunications industry fell back from the previous period. However, its positive effect then shows that the North-South split of China Telecom played a negative role in the telecommunications industry from 2002-2004 to 2008-2009. Due to the great changes in market structure, the adaptation period had a negative effect on the telecommunications industry. However, the reform dividend is gradually released with the passage of time. The unit root test of the two variables is carried out by using ADF method. It is found that the total amount of telecommunication services and the original GDP sequence are both second-order differential stationary sequences. By using the E-G two-step method to test the cointegration of the first order differential variables of the original sequence, comparing the two cointegration models which do not consider the policy influence and the policy influence, it is found that the co-integration model after considering the policy influence has more advantages in the econometric model. The error correction model is established by using cointegration relation considering the influence of policy, and the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation between the two variables are discussed. Through empirical analysis, combined with the economic development trend, We put forward the following suggestions: 1) attach importance to and promote the reform of the telecommunications industry in its daily operation and reduce the risks brought by the reform. (2) intensify the "supply-side" reform in the telecommunications industry, and promote data and information services, energy, and transportation. Education and other fields of sharing and co-construction) actively promote the telecommunications sector mixed ownership reform process to promote effective competition in the telecommunications market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京郵電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F623

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