【摘要】：長期以來自然資源對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響在學術界一直以為是正面的,但是進入上世紀六七十年代,許多資源豐裕的國家并沒有得到持久的快速發(fā)展,反而比資源相對匱乏的地區(qū)發(fā)展的速度緩慢很多,由此學術界發(fā)現(xiàn)了“資源詛咒”這一現(xiàn)象。俄羅斯作為世界上能源資源最豐裕的國家,每年出口大量的石油和天然氣等自然資源,現(xiàn)階段的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展也嚴重依賴能源出口,人們不禁要問,俄羅斯的資源稟賦與經(jīng)濟增長的關系如何,是否出現(xiàn)了 “資源詛咒”問題。本文主要研究俄羅斯資源稟賦與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關系,從多個角度分析資源稟賦對于俄羅斯來講是福祉還是詛咒。首先是基于投入產(chǎn)出表的相關理論和數(shù)據(jù),實證分析代表資源稟賦的采掘業(yè)對俄羅斯經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻,主要分析了采掘業(yè)對于經(jīng)濟增長的直接貢獻和間接貢獻,同時又將間接貢獻分為推動作用和拉動作用,多角度地分析采掘業(yè)對于俄羅斯經(jīng)濟增長的作用。在此基礎上,進一步利用投入產(chǎn)出表的平衡關系,分析了采掘業(yè)出口對于俄羅斯經(jīng)濟的影響。這一部分的分析就是在充分考慮了俄羅斯大量出口資源性產(chǎn)品并帶來大量的外匯收入,是其GDP的重要來源之一。這一部分主要實證分析了出口對俄羅斯GDP總量和GDP增長率的貢獻,以及分產(chǎn)業(yè)分析了各個產(chǎn)業(yè)對GDP總量和GDP增長率的貢獻,從實證角度證實了采掘業(yè)對俄羅斯經(jīng)濟總量和經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻居于54個產(chǎn)業(yè)的首位。那么,資源稟賦對于俄羅斯經(jīng)濟增長具有如此重要的作用,那么俄羅斯是否存在資源詛咒問題呢。本文的第三部分就是使用檢驗資源詛咒的經(jīng)典模型,采用俄羅斯2003-2015年的78個區(qū)域的面板數(shù)據(jù)進行了實證檢驗。實證結果顯示,在俄羅斯的區(qū)域范圍內存在資源詛咒問題,也就是說資源豐裕與經(jīng)濟增長呈負相關變化。最后,探討了俄羅斯擺脫資源依賴性經(jīng)濟,調整經(jīng)濟結構的一些建議,以及中俄經(jīng)濟合作的一些建議。
[Abstract]:The impact of natural resources on economic development has long been thought to be positive in the academic world, but in the 1960s and 1970s, many of the rich countries did not have sustained and rapid development, but rather than the relatively scarce resources of the resources, the speed of development was much slower, The academic community has thus found a "resource curse" of this phenomenon. Russia, as the most abundant country in the world's energy resources, exports a large amount of natural resources such as oil and natural gas every year. At the present stage, economic development is also heavily dependent on energy exports. People can't help wondering how the relationship between resource endowment and economic growth in Russia, A "resource curse" problem has occurred. This paper mainly studies the relationship between Russian resource endowment and economic growth, and analyzes resource endowment from multiple angles to be well-being or curse to Russia. Firstly, based on the relevant theories and data of the input-output table, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the contribution of the extractive industries to the economic growth of Russia, and mainly analyzes the direct contribution and indirect contribution of the extractive industries to the economic growth, while the indirect contribution is divided into the pushing action and the pulling effect. The role of extractive industries in the economic growth of Russia is analyzed in a multi-angle manner. On this basis, the influence of the export of the extractive industries on the Russian economy is analyzed by using the balance of the input-output table. The analysis of this part is one of the important sources of China's GDP, taking fully into account the large number of export-related products in Russia and the large amount of foreign exchange earnings. This part mainly analyzes the contribution of the export to the total GDP and the GDP growth rate, and the contribution of the industry to the total GDP and the GDP growth rate. From the positive point of view, the contribution of extractive industries to the total economic and economic growth of Russia is the first of the 54 industries. So, if the endowment of resources plays an important role in the economic growth of Russia, there is a problem of resource curse in Russia. The third part of this paper is to use the classical model of checking the resource curse, using the panel data of the 78 areas of Russia in 2003-2015 to carry out the empirical test. The empirical results show that there is a problem of resource curse in the region of Russia, that is, there is a negative correlation between resource abundance and economic growth. Finally, this paper discusses some suggestions of Russia's free-from-resource-dependent economy, the adjustment of the economic structure, and some of the suggestions for Sino-Russian economic cooperation.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F151.2

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