【摘要】：面對(duì)近年來(lái)住房市場(chǎng)飛速發(fā)展，房?jī)r(jià)上漲過(guò)快的現(xiàn)象，我國(guó)從2011年起出臺(tái)了新的“限購(gòu)限貸”政策。但是新政運(yùn)行至今，大多數(shù)重點(diǎn)城市的房?jī)r(jià)和銷售量仍在增長(zhǎng)，并且我國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)已逐步呈現(xiàn)區(qū)域分化的趨勢(shì)，不同城市的市場(chǎng)預(yù)期也開(kāi)始變得不同。因此，本文對(duì)于西安市商品住房需求的分析研究是非常有必要的，只有清楚了西安市商品住房需求的發(fā)展情況，結(jié)構(gòu)情況以及未來(lái)的變化趨勢(shì)，，才能有針對(duì)性的做好下一階段市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展與調(diào)控規(guī)劃，保障西安商品住房市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展。 對(duì)此，本文先對(duì)近年來(lái)西安市商品住房市場(chǎng)需求情況的呈現(xiàn)的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析，找出整體住房市場(chǎng)需求發(fā)展的特點(diǎn)與問(wèn)題；再通過(guò)商品住房需求的結(jié)構(gòu)分析，將住房需求依照線型支出系統(tǒng)模型劃分為基本需求和由奢華享受、投資投機(jī)為目的的超額需求，來(lái)深入剖析西安市商品住房市場(chǎng)需求結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。接著，采用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型分別分析影響西安市商品住房整體需求、基本需求和超額需求發(fā)展的市場(chǎng)因素及影響程度，以此為基礎(chǔ)，建立精度更高的灰色組合模型，預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)西安市商品住房的需求量和需求結(jié)構(gòu)的變化趨勢(shì)。進(jìn)而根據(jù)西安商品住房市場(chǎng)需求的特點(diǎn)、結(jié)構(gòu)、影響因素以及趨勢(shì)分析的總結(jié)，提出適應(yīng)西安商品住房需求變化的市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展對(duì)策及政策調(diào)控意見(jiàn)。 論文對(duì)西安商品住房的需求進(jìn)行了深入研究，不僅能使西安市政府對(duì)西安住房市場(chǎng)發(fā)展與住房需求發(fā)展的情況有了更為明確的判斷，為其總體布局、政策調(diào)控與傾斜、體制的完善等政策措施的提供借鑒；還能為我國(guó)其他地區(qū)區(qū)域住房市場(chǎng)需求分析提供借鑒，為促進(jìn)區(qū)域商品住房市場(chǎng)健康發(fā)展有重要指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:In the face of the rapid development of housing market and the rapid rise of house prices in recent years, China has introduced a new policy of "limiting purchase and lending" since 2011. But up to now, the housing prices and sales in most key cities are still increasing, and the housing market of our country has gradually shown the trend of regional differentiation, and the market expectations of different cities are also beginning to be different. Therefore, this paper is very necessary for the analysis and study of commodity housing demand in Xi'an. Only the development, structure and future trends of commodity housing demand in Xi'an are clear. In order to ensure the healthy development of Xi'an commodity housing market, the next stage of market development and regulation planning can be done well. In view of this, this paper first analyzes the index data of the commodity housing market demand in Xi'an in recent years, and finds out the characteristics and problems of the development of the overall housing market demand. Through the structural analysis of commodity housing demand, housing demand is divided into basic demand and excess demand for luxury enjoyment and investment speculation according to linear expenditure system model. To analyze the Xi'an commodity housing market demand structure of the development of the current situation. Then, the econometrics model is used to analyze the market factors that affect the development of commodity housing demand, basic demand and excess demand in Xi'an city, and the grey combination model with higher precision is established. Forecast the demand of commodity housing and the change trend of demand structure in Xi'an city in the future. Then according to the characteristics, structure, influencing factors and trend analysis of Xi'an commodity housing market demand, the paper puts forward the market healthy development countermeasures and policy control suggestions to adapt to the change of Xi'an commodity housing demand. The paper has carried on the thorough research to the Xi'an commodity housing demand, not only can make the Xi'an municipal government have the clearer judgment to the Xi'an housing market development and the housing demand development situation, for its overall layout, the policy control and the inclination. System improvement and other policy measures to provide reference; It can also provide reference for the analysis of regional housing market demand in other regions of China, and has important guiding significance for promoting the healthy development of regional commodity housing market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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