【摘要】：我國正處在城鎮(zhèn)化快速發(fā)展時期，每年有大量的農(nóng)民工從農(nóng)村向城市轉(zhuǎn)移，從而國家提出發(fā)展“以人為核心”“以農(nóng)民工市民化為首要任務(wù)”的新型城鎮(zhèn)化，在新型城鎮(zhèn)化的時代背景下，我們應(yīng)該關(guān)注和解決農(nóng)民工的住房問題，讓他們更好的融入城市生活，享受和市民同等的醫(yī)療、教育、就業(yè)資源。由于農(nóng)民工的經(jīng)濟(jì)能力有限且不在城鎮(zhèn)保障范圍內(nèi)，僅僅依靠市場作用來解決他們的住房問題是不現(xiàn)實的，需要政府提供公共租賃住房來解決他們的住房困難。 首先，論文介紹了國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀，發(fā)現(xiàn)目前研究存在的不足，提出對未來相關(guān)研究的期望方向，并且規(guī)劃論文的技術(shù)路線圖。同時，介紹新型城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)民工、農(nóng)民工市民化和公租房的概念以及相關(guān)理論，指出研究的意義和重要性，為后續(xù)研究內(nèi)容提供理論支撐。 其次，論文分析了陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和公租房供給需求現(xiàn)狀，通過搜集整理大量數(shù)據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)存在的問題，包括陜西省城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展雖然速度很快，但是仍然處于落后水平，且省內(nèi)各市城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展不均衡，還有陜西省公租房供給量嚴(yán)重不足，供需不平衡，絕大多數(shù)的城市最低生活保障家庭尚未享受到公租房。 再次，論文詳細(xì)介紹了灰色系統(tǒng)理論的建模過程，，同時，還對陜西省農(nóng)民工公租房的需求量進(jìn)行了實證分析，運用灰色系統(tǒng)GM(1，1)模型，對未來短期的農(nóng)民工公租房需求量進(jìn)行預(yù)測，并且對預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行殘差檢驗、關(guān)聯(lián)度檢驗和殘差檢驗，其中關(guān)聯(lián)度檢驗未通過，與標(biāo)準(zhǔn)有微小差距，其余兩種檢驗結(jié)果均達(dá)到一級標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，暫認(rèn)定預(yù)測結(jié)果合格。研究為今后研究農(nóng)民工公租房問題提供了方法參考，為陜西省政府解決農(nóng)民工公租房問題提供數(shù)據(jù)參考。 最后，論文針對農(nóng)民工公租房的問題，提出相關(guān)的政策建議，具有借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:China is in the period of rapid development of urbanization. Every year, a large number of migrant workers are transferred from rural to urban areas, so the country proposes to develop a new type of urbanization with "people as the core" and "the city of migrant workers as the primary task". In the context of new urbanization, we should pay attention to and solve the housing problem of migrant workers, let them better integrate into urban life, enjoy the same medical, education, employment resources as citizens. As the economic ability of migrant workers is limited and not within the scope of urban security, it is unrealistic to rely on the role of the market to solve their housing problems, so it is necessary for the government to provide public rental housing to solve their housing difficulties. Firstly, the paper introduces the current research situation at home and abroad, finds out the shortcomings of the current research, puts forward the expected direction of future related research, and plans the technical roadmap of the paper. At the same time, this paper introduces the concepts of new urbanization, peasant laborer citizenship and public rental housing, points out the significance and importance of the research, and provides theoretical support for the following research content. Secondly, the paper analyzes the current situation of urbanization and the supply of public rental housing in Shaanxi Province, through collecting and sorting out a large number of data, found the existing problems, including the rapid development of urbanization in Shaanxi Province, but still in the backward level. And the development of urbanization in various cities in Shaanxi Province is not balanced, there is a serious shortage of supply of public rental housing in Shaanxi Province, supply and demand imbalance, most of the urban minimum living security families have not yet enjoyed public rental housing. Thirdly, the paper introduces the modeling process of grey system theory in detail. At the same time, it also makes an empirical analysis on the demand of rural migrant workers' public rental housing in Shaanxi Province, and applies the grey system GM (1 / 1) model. The short-term demand for public rental housing of migrant workers in the future is forecasted, and the residual test, correlation test and residual test are carried out, in which the correlation degree test has not passed, and there is a small gap with the standard. The other two kinds of test results are up to the first class standard, and the forecast results are confirmed to be up to standard. The study provides a method reference for the future study of migrant workers' public rental housing problem, and provides a data reference for Shaanxi provincial government to solve the problem of migrant workers' public rental housing. Finally, the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for migrant workers' public rental housing, which has reference significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F299.21

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