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股票誤定價與投資迎合行為研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-10-24 22:28
【摘要】:新常態(tài)下我國經(jīng)濟增速放緩,傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟動力減弱,中國實體經(jīng)濟的形勢正變得愈發(fā)嚴(yán)峻,引領(lǐng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展新常態(tài)的關(guān)鍵就在于如何推動現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。因此,培育經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的新動力迫在眉睫。而企業(yè)作為構(gòu)成實體經(jīng)濟的微觀主體,其財務(wù)行為,尤其是投資行為,在目前經(jīng)濟發(fā)展新常態(tài)下越來越受到關(guān)注。大體上看,現(xiàn)階段我國企業(yè)的投資行為正在朝著合理化、規(guī)范化的方向發(fā)展,但與此同時也存在著不足,諸如投資者非理性情緒引起的股票錯誤定價等都會導(dǎo)致企業(yè)的投資行為受到影響。本文的研究以資本市場有效性理論、委托代理理論和行為金融理論為基礎(chǔ),選取了2010-2015年滬深A(yù)股上市公司數(shù)據(jù)為研究樣本。其中,股票誤定價的替代指標(biāo)選取的是理論界較為認可的剩余收益估值模型和操縱性應(yīng)計來衡量,此外文章構(gòu)建的實證模型中還考慮到了經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量、企業(yè)潛在投資機會、盈利能力和股權(quán)集中度等對企業(yè)投資水平有影響的控制變量,檢驗了股票錯誤定價對企業(yè)投資水平的影響以及二者之間作用的兩種渠道——股權(quán)融資渠道和理性迎合渠道的存在,并加入了融資融券、產(chǎn)權(quán)性質(zhì)以及融資約束的影響,進一步在實證模型和理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上提出一系列研究假設(shè)。通過對主要變量的樣本回歸分析、實證檢驗以及穩(wěn)健性檢驗,研究發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)股票錯誤定價與企業(yè)投資水平正相關(guān);(2)相對于控制組,融資融券標(biāo)的公司不具有顯著的投資迎合行為;(3)相對于民營企業(yè),國有企業(yè)具有顯著的投資迎合行為;(4)我國資本市場上,股票錯誤定價可以同時通過理性迎合渠道和股權(quán)融資渠道影響企業(yè)投資水平;(5)融資約束越高,股權(quán)融資渠道的迎合效果越明顯;诖,本文提出以下建議:企業(yè)應(yīng)當(dāng)自覺地規(guī)范和約束自身的投資行為,著眼于自身的長遠發(fā)展而不是為了短期利益一味迎合投資者非理性情緒;投資者應(yīng)該樹立正確的投資觀念,作出理性的投資決策,理性對股市進行分析;監(jiān)管部門需要進一步完善證券市場的外部環(huán)境,加強相關(guān)法律法規(guī)體系建設(shè),加大處罰力度,對違反證券市場規(guī)定的投資者和企業(yè)嚴(yán)懲不貸。
[Abstract]:Under the new normal, the economic growth rate of our country slows down, the traditional economic motive force weakens, the situation of China's real economy is becoming more and more serious, the key of leading the economic development of the new normal lies in how to promote the sustained and healthy development of the economy at the present stage. Therefore, it is urgent to cultivate a new motive force for economic development. As the microcosmic subject of real economy, enterprises' financial behavior, especially investment behavior, is paid more and more attention under the new normal state of economic development. Generally speaking, at the present stage, the investment behavior of Chinese enterprises is developing in the direction of rationalization and standardization, but at the same time, there are also deficiencies. Stock mispricing, such as irrational investor sentiment, can affect the investment behavior of enterprises. Based on the theory of capital market efficiency, principal-agent theory and behavioral finance theory, this paper selects the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2015 as the research samples. Among them, the alternative index of stock mispricing is measured by residual income valuation model and manipulative accruals, which are accepted by the theoretical circle. In addition, the empirical model constructed in this paper also takes into account the operating cash flow and the potential investment opportunities of enterprises. The controlling variables, such as profitability and equity concentration, which affect the investment level of enterprises, This paper examines the influence of stock mispricing on enterprise investment level and the existence of equity financing channel and rational pandering channel, and adds the influence of margin financing, property right nature and financing constraint. On the basis of empirical model and theoretical analysis, a series of hypotheses are put forward. Through sample regression analysis, empirical test and robustness test of main variables, it is found that: (1) stock mispricing is positively related to firm investment level; (2) relative to control group, (3) compared with the private enterprises, the state-owned enterprises have significant investment catering behavior; (4) in the capital market of our country, the state-owned enterprises have significant investment pandering behavior; (4) in the capital market of our country, the state-owned enterprises have significant investment pandering behavior. Stock mispricing can affect the investment level of enterprises through both rational pandering channels and equity financing channels; (5) the higher the financing constraints, the more obvious the pandering effect of equity financing channels. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: enterprises should consciously regulate and restrain their own investment behavior, focusing on their own long-term development rather than blindly catering to investors' irrational emotions for the sake of short-term interests; Investors should set up a correct investment concept, make rational investment decisions, rationally analyze the stock market, and the regulatory authorities need to further improve the external environment of the securities market, strengthen the construction of relevant laws and regulations, and increase penalties. Investors and enterprises who violate the regulations of the securities market are severely punished.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:河南財經(jīng)政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:F832.51;F275

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