【摘要】：上市公司股利支付決策一直是各界長(zhǎng)期關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，但是公司為什么要選擇支付股利？至今傳統(tǒng)的金融理論仍未能完整的解釋“股利之謎”現(xiàn)象。美國(guó)學(xué)者Baker和Wurgler（2004）從行為金融學(xué)角度出發(fā)提出了股利迎合理論，，該理論放寬MM理論中關(guān)于“市場(chǎng)有效性”的假設(shè)，從投資者角度分析管理層是否滿足投資者的需求。該理論認(rèn)為如果市場(chǎng)是有效的，則現(xiàn)金股利支付應(yīng)該由企業(yè)特征決定；如果市場(chǎng)不是完全有效的，則理性的管理層會(huì)為了提高股價(jià)，迎合投資者對(duì)股利不斷變化的偏好。他們通過(guò)實(shí)證研究得出：迎合理論對(duì)美國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)金股利支付決策有很好的解釋能力。由于我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的特殊性，且不同學(xué)者選擇的上市公司及檢驗(yàn)指標(biāo)具有差異性，使得利用迎合理論解釋我國(guó)現(xiàn)金股利支付傾向的結(jié)論并不盡相同�；诖耍疚膶⒂侠碚撆c我國(guó)的實(shí)際情況相結(jié)合，以研究迎合理論對(duì)我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的適用性，同時(shí)對(duì)我國(guó)現(xiàn)金股利支付決策給出一定的解釋。 本文共分為五個(gè)部分。第一章首先介紹選題背景及意義，歸納總結(jié)了股利迎合理論的國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀，同時(shí)介紹了本文的研究思路與框架。第二章詳細(xì)介紹了股利迎合理論的主要內(nèi)容，具體包括迎合理論提出的背景，內(nèi)容概述，前提假設(shè)及模型，并分析了迎合理論的優(yōu)點(diǎn)與不足。第三章結(jié)合迎合理論分析了我國(guó)上市公司現(xiàn)金股利支付現(xiàn)狀，首先介紹了我國(guó)上市公司現(xiàn)金股利支付的現(xiàn)狀，然后用迎合理論分析其對(duì)我國(guó)上市公司現(xiàn)金股利支付現(xiàn)狀的解釋能力。第四章主要運(yùn)用Logistic模型對(duì)迎合理論是否能解釋我國(guó)現(xiàn)金股利支付情況做實(shí)證分析，結(jié)果表明現(xiàn)金股利支付意愿與現(xiàn)金股利溢價(jià)有相似走向趨勢(shì)，當(dāng)現(xiàn)金股利溢價(jià)高時(shí)，公司傾向于支付現(xiàn)金股利；當(dāng)現(xiàn)金股利溢價(jià)低時(shí)，公司傾向于不支付現(xiàn)金股利。從而得出股利迎合理論能很好的解釋我國(guó)現(xiàn)金股利支付決策。最后第五章得出結(jié)論，并結(jié)合迎合理論，對(duì)我國(guó)上市公司制定現(xiàn)金股利支付決策提出對(duì)策和建議。
[Abstract]:The decision of dividend payment of listed companies has been the focus of attention for a long time, but why do companies choose to pay dividends? So far, the traditional financial theory has not fully explained the "dividend mystery" phenomenon. American scholars Baker and Wurgler (2004) put forward dividend pandering theory from the point of view of behavioral finance. This theory relaxed the hypothesis of "market efficiency" in MM theory, and analyzed whether management meets the needs of investors from the perspective of investors. The theory holds that if the market is efficient, the cash dividend payment should be determined by the characteristics of the firm; if the market is not completely effective, the rational management will cater to the changing preferences of investors in order to raise the stock price. Their empirical research shows that pandering theory can explain the decision of cash dividend payment in American securities market. Because of the particularity of China's securities market and the differences of listed companies and test indexes chosen by different scholars, the conclusion of using pandering theory to explain the tendency of cash dividend payment in China is not the same. Based on this, this paper combines the pandering theory with the actual situation of our country to study the applicability of pandering theory to the stock market of our country, and at the same time gives a certain explanation to the decision of cash dividend payment in our country. This paper is divided into five parts. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the topic, summarizes the domestic and foreign research status of dividend catering theory, and introduces the research ideas and framework of this paper. The second chapter introduces the main contents of dividend pandering theory in detail, including the background of pandering theory, content overview, premise hypothesis and model, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of catering theory. The third chapter analyzes the current situation of cash dividend payment of listed companies in China, and introduces the current situation of cash dividend payment of listed companies in China. Then it analyzes its ability to explain the current situation of cash dividend payment of listed companies in China by pandering theory. The fourth chapter mainly uses Logistic model to analyze whether the catering theory can explain the situation of cash dividend payment in China. The results show that the willingness to pay cash dividend has a similar trend with the cash dividend premium, and when the cash dividend premium is high, the result shows that there is a similar trend between the willingness to pay cash dividend and the cash dividend premium. Companies tend to pay cash dividends; when cash dividend premiums are low, companies tend not to pay cash dividends. Therefore, the theory of dividend pandering can explain the decision of cash dividend payment in China. Finally, the fifth chapter draws a conclusion, and combines with the theory of pandering, puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the decision of cash dividend payment of listed companies in our country.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F832.51

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