本文關(guān)鍵詞： 股東減持 創(chuàng)業(yè)板 市場(chǎng)泡沫　出處：《廈門(mén)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2013年是我國(guó)股市中股東大量減持的一個(gè)高峰期,尤其是創(chuàng)業(yè)板公司；2012年我國(guó)滬深兩市股東減持總額約140億,其中中小板和創(chuàng)業(yè)板分別占據(jù)70%和23%。2013年我國(guó)滬深兩市股東減持市值總額約580億,其中中小板占58%,創(chuàng)業(yè)板占35%,創(chuàng)業(yè)板減持市值比2012年增長(zhǎng)了約530%,在如此巨大的股東減持壓力下,創(chuàng)業(yè)板卻創(chuàng)造了近300%的板塊指數(shù)收益率,這一現(xiàn)象引發(fā)了本人的思考。 本文通過(guò)深入挖掘市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)以及回歸分析方法對(duì)2013年股東減持行為對(duì)市場(chǎng)具體影響進(jìn)行深入分析,在明確了股東減持行為對(duì)市場(chǎng)的短期負(fù)面影響的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步從資本市場(chǎng)制度設(shè)計(jì)角度分析了產(chǎn)生大量股東減持套現(xiàn)行為的原因,針對(duì)2013年這一股東大量減持和創(chuàng)業(yè)板牛市同時(shí)出現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)象,本文首先從基本面角度分析排除了創(chuàng)業(yè)板2013高增長(zhǎng)由公司內(nèi)在價(jià)值決定,之后運(yùn)用游程檢驗(yàn)和持續(xù)期依賴(lài)檢驗(yàn)方法判斷市場(chǎng)投機(jī)泡沫確實(shí)存在,在此基礎(chǔ)上本文第四章對(duì)存在大量股東減持行為時(shí)的2013年創(chuàng)業(yè)板指數(shù)走勢(shì)原因進(jìn)行探究,結(jié)合市場(chǎng)人士的觀點(diǎn)分析了可能引起創(chuàng)業(yè)板2013年牛市行情的原因。 最終文本得出結(jié)論：創(chuàng)業(yè)板股東減持高峰與2013年結(jié)構(gòu)性牛市并存在現(xiàn)象是由著資本市場(chǎng)制度設(shè)計(jì)缺陷、市場(chǎng)投機(jī)泡沫以及其他市場(chǎng)環(huán)境因素造成的,雖然大量的股東減持確實(shí)造成了很強(qiáng)的市場(chǎng)負(fù)面影響,但由于市場(chǎng)非理性造成了大量資金對(duì)存在明顯泡沫的創(chuàng)業(yè)板的持續(xù)追捧；這一在理論上值得質(zhì)疑的現(xiàn)象在我國(guó)當(dāng)前的資本市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下有其存在的必然性,但隨著我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)改革的推進(jìn),市場(chǎng)效率的不斷提高,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者占市場(chǎng)的比例不斷提高,投資者的行為將不斷趨于理性,這種由市場(chǎng)非理性導(dǎo)致的現(xiàn)象將逐漸減少。
[Abstract]:2013 is a peak period for shareholders to reduce their holdings in China's stock market, especially for gem companies. In 2012, the total amount of shareholders' reduction in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 14 billion, in which the small and medium board and the growth enterprise board occupied 70% and 23.3 respectively. The total amount of shareholders' reduction of market value in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 58 billion in the period of 2013. Among them, the small and medium board accounted for 58, gem accounted for 35, the growth Enterprise Market market value compared to 2012 increased about 530 percent, in such a huge shareholder reduction pressure. Gem has created nearly 300% of the plate index yield, this phenomenon triggered my thinking. In this paper, through the in-depth mining of market data, the use of descriptive statistics and regression analysis of the 2013 shareholder reduction behavior on the specific impact of the market in-depth analysis. On the basis of clarifying the short-term negative impact of the shareholder reduction on the market, this paper further analyzes the reasons for the large number of shareholders' reduction of cash from the perspective of the capital market system design. In view of the phenomenon that in 2013 this shareholder's massive reduction and the gem bull market appeared simultaneously, this article first from the fundamental aspect analysis excluded the gem 2013 high growth by the company intrinsic value determination. Then we use run test and duration dependence test to judge the existence of speculative bubble in the market. On this basis, this article 4th chapter on the existence of a large number of shareholders to reduce the behavior of the gem in 2013 to explore the reasons for the trend of the index. Combined with the market point of view analysis may cause the gem bull market on 2013 reasons. The final text draws a conclusion: the peak of gem shareholder reduction and the structural bull market in 2013 are caused by the defects of capital market system design, market speculative bubble and other market environmental factors. Although a large number of shareholders have indeed caused a strong negative impact on the market, but due to irrational market caused by a large number of funds to the existence of a clear bubble of the gem continued to pursue; This phenomenon is questionable in theory in China's current capital market environment has its inevitability, but with the promotion of China's capital market reform, the market efficiency continues to improve. With the increasing proportion of institutional investors in the market, the behavior of investors will continue to be rational, and the phenomenon caused by market irrationality will be gradually reduced.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廈門(mén)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.51

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 曾永藝;吳世農(nóng);吳冉R，

本文編號(hào)：1486739