本文關(guān)鍵詞： 中國光伏 光伏產(chǎn)業(yè) 產(chǎn)能過剩 過度投資　出處：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文首先通過對國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)的梳理和回顧，并具體介紹了自由現(xiàn)金流和過度投資的相關(guān)理論，為全文奠定理論基礎(chǔ)；然后介紹了光伏的相關(guān)知識和中國光伏行業(yè)的發(fā)展特色和現(xiàn)狀，并且從市場的供給和需求方面分析了中國光伏行業(yè)面臨的產(chǎn)能過剩問題，并指出這一供大于求的局面在近幾年內(nèi)還是會持續(xù)存在；接著在Richardson關(guān)于過度投資理論的基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)中國光伏行業(yè)的特點，選取了30家在國內(nèi)外上市的中國光伏企業(yè)2003年到2012年的數(shù)據(jù)，進(jìn)行進(jìn)行實證分析，建立投資預(yù)期模型，估計企業(yè)的適度投資和過度投資水平，驗證了我國光伏企業(yè)是否存在過度投資的現(xiàn)象；最后，針對我國光伏行業(yè)出現(xiàn)的過度投資現(xiàn)象，指出除了市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的不理性，企業(yè)投資的盲目性，也存在各地各級政府，為了政績考核，各個金融機(jī)構(gòu)“嫌平愛富”，在整個產(chǎn)業(yè)循環(huán)周期當(dāng)中，起到了推波助瀾的作用，值得企業(yè)、金融機(jī)構(gòu)及政府部門深深思考。 產(chǎn)能過剩既是長期困擾中國經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展的一大難題，也是當(dāng)前產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整中亟待解決的突出問題，產(chǎn)能過剩通常存在于諸如鋼鐵、水泥傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)，但近年來一些新新領(lǐng)域也出現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)能過剩的情況，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)即是其中出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能過剩問題的行業(yè)之一。在全球積極推行低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的背景下，光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)作為新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的一部分，已經(jīng)列入我國七大重點發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)，因此對光伏行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能過剩問題進(jìn)行研究具有非常重要的顯示意義。 光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)作為新興產(chǎn)業(yè)，還處在產(chǎn)業(yè)生命周期的初級階段，從供給方面來看，由于國家政策的支持以及下游進(jìn)入門檻較低，大量廠商進(jìn)入光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)，各地光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)園如雨后春筍般拔地而起，產(chǎn)能迅速擴(kuò)張；而需求方面，由于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，，配套設(shè)施不完善，光伏發(fā)電成本較目前的其他發(fā)電方式，如火電，水電，成本較高，限制了光伏產(chǎn)品的市場的增長。 由于國內(nèi)市場局限性，我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)對國外市場依賴嚴(yán)重，特別是對于歐洲市場的依賴性特別強(qiáng)，而近年來，由于金融危機(jī)，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，很多歐美光伏應(yīng)用大國都削減了光伏發(fā)電的補(bǔ)貼，使得歐洲光伏市場的需求驟降，全球太陽能裝機(jī)容量增長放緩，但是中國光伏企業(yè)生產(chǎn)能力全球占比超過70%，甚至超過2013年全球新增的裝機(jī)容量，產(chǎn)能過剩問題嚴(yán)重。 同時，我國目前正處于轉(zhuǎn)軌時期，在這期間，不完善的要素市場，財稅體制，政績考核體質(zhì)以及地方政府不恰當(dāng)?shù)氖袌龈深A(yù)行為，導(dǎo)致“市場”不能充分的發(fā)揮作用，過剩的產(chǎn)能不能以“市場”的手段降低到合理的手段，這些也導(dǎo)致了光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩，并且會造成供大于需的局面還將長期存在。 通過選擇目前在國內(nèi)，美國和香港上市的中國領(lǐng)先的光伏企業(yè)的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)，對此進(jìn)行分析，我們可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，以會計數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)在一定時期內(nèi)存在過度投資的現(xiàn)象。 對此，本文認(rèn)為對于過度投資現(xiàn)象的出現(xiàn)，不能認(rèn)為的緊急剎車，而是應(yīng)該積極的籌劃光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)的長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展，一方面加速基礎(chǔ)設(shè)置，準(zhǔn)入條件，管制制度的完善，為光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展構(gòu)建良好的制度環(huán)境；另一方面要避免地方政府對于光伏企業(yè)投資行為的不當(dāng)干預(yù)，積極發(fā)揮市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用，讓落后的產(chǎn)能通過市場的途徑自然而然的淘汰，鼓勵企業(yè)之間的收購兼并，提高整個行業(yè)的競爭力；其次，要積極開拓國內(nèi)光伏市場，完善補(bǔ)貼政策，在符合國家戰(zhàn)略長遠(yuǎn)的發(fā)展前提下，強(qiáng)化光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，持續(xù)降低產(chǎn)品成本，從而促進(jìn)我國光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)健康快速發(fā)展。 對于新興行業(yè)的發(fā)展初期，特別是“財富效應(yīng)”巨大的行業(yè)，大量的資本的涌入，也許產(chǎn)能過剩，供需不平衡的現(xiàn)象是經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)的，企業(yè)之間擴(kuò)大資本性支出或許存在一定的博弈，這就需要政府及時發(fā)揮其“無形的手”的作用，完善整個行業(yè)規(guī)劃，提高產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)入門檻，促進(jìn)行業(yè)健康、有序的發(fā)展；同時，對于潛在的“貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)”，需要企業(yè)提高應(yīng)變能力。
[Abstract]:Firstly, through the literature review and the review of related theories and introduces free cash flow and over investment, which lays the theoretical foundation for the thesis; then introduces the related knowledge and the development characteristics of photovoltaic Chinese photovoltaic industry and the status quo, and from the market supply and demand are analyzed China photovoltaic industry the problem of excess production capacity, and points out that the oversupply situation in recent years and will continue to exist; then based on Richardson about excessive investment theory, according to the characteristics of Chinese photovoltaic industry, select 30 listed in the domestic and foreign Chinese photovoltaic enterprise from 2003 to 2012 data, for empirical analysis. The establishment of the expected investment model, estimation of moderate investment enterprises and over investment level, verify whether there is the phenomenon of excessive investment of PV companies in China; finally, for me Over investment in the photovoltaic industry, pointed out that in addition to the irrational market economy, blind investment, there are also the governments at all levels, for the performance evaluation of various financial institutions "too flat Aifo", in the whole industry cycle, played a role in fueling, worthy of the company, financial institutions and government departments think deeply.
A big problem of overcapacity both long plagued the healthy development of China economy, but also the current outstanding problems in the adjustment of industrial structure to be solved, overcapacity is usually found in traditional industries such as steel, cement, but in recent years some new areas of overcapacity situation, the photovoltaic industry is one of one of the industry overcapacity problem in the whole world. Actively promote the low carbon economy, the photovoltaic industry as part of the new energy industry, has been included in the seven focus on the development of China's strategic emerging industries, so the PV industry overcapacity problem has very important significance to study the display.
The photovoltaic industry as an emerging industry, is still in the initial stage of the industry life cycle, from the supply side, due to the support of national policy and the downstream low barriers to entry, a large number of manufacturers to enter the photovoltaic industry, the photovoltaic industry around the park such as bamboo shoots after a spring rain like springing up, the rapid expansion of production capacity; and the demand side, due to infrastructure, inadequate facilities, the cost of photovoltaic power generation than other power generation methods at present such as thermal power, hydropower, high cost, limited the PV market growth.
Due to limitations of the domestic market, China's PV industry depends heavily on foreign markets, especially the dependence on the European market is very strong, but in recent years, due to the financial crisis, the economic recession, many European and American countries have cut PV photovoltaic subsidies, the sudden drop in demand in Europe PV market, global solar energy installed capacity growth slowed, but the production capacity of Chinese global photovoltaic enterprises accounted for more than 70%, even more than the global new installed capacity in 2013, the serious problem of overcapacity.
At the same time, our country is now in the transition period, during this period, the market is not perfect, the elements of the tax system, market intervention and local government performance evaluation body not appropriate, lead to the "market" can not fully play the role of excess capacity can not be reduced to a reasonable means to "market" means that in the photovoltaic industry overcapacity, and will cause the need for more than the situation will exist for a long time.
By analyzing the financial data of China's leading photovoltaic enterprises listed in the US and Hongkong, we can find that based on accounting data, China's photovoltaic industry has a phenomenon of over investment in a certain period.
In this regard, this paper thinks the excessive investment phenomenon, the emergency brake can not be considered, but should be long-term development planning of photovoltaic industry actively, on the one hand, accelerate infrastructure, access conditions, perfect control system, build the good system environment for the development of photovoltaic industry; on the other hand to avoid the improper intervention of the local government for photovoltaic enterprises the investment behavior, actively play the role of the market economy, make the backward production capacity by the way of market naturally eliminated, encourage enterprises between mergers and acquisitions, improve the competitiveness of the whole industry; secondly, to actively explore the domestic PV market, improve the subsidy policy, in accordance with the national long-term development strategy under the premise of strengthening technological innovation of photovoltaic industry last, reduce product cost, so as to promote the healthy and rapid development of China's photovoltaic industry.
For the early development of the emerging industry, especially the industry "wealth effect" huge, massive capital inflows, perhaps overcapacity, supply and demand imbalance often occurs between enterprises expand capital expenditures, there may be a certain game, which requires the government to play the "invisible hand" role. Improve the whole industry planning, improve the industry barriers to entry, and promote the healthy and orderly development; at the same time, the potential for a "trade war", enterprises need to improve the ability.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.6;F832.48

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