本文關(guān)鍵詞： P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 預(yù)警體系 SVM模型　出處：《陜西科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融是金融業(yè)的一場(chǎng)偉大變革,它的出現(xiàn)極大地豐富了金融市場(chǎng)。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融包括P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸、眾籌和第三方支付等。其中,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸憑借成本低、門檻低、資金運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)快的優(yōu)勢(shì),迅速發(fā)展壯大。作為一種網(wǎng)絡(luò)時(shí)代下的金融創(chuàng)新模式——P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸,一方面成為了緩解中小企業(yè)融資缺口、解決民間資本投資需求的重要工具,另一方面作為普惠金融和民主金融的重要組成部分,實(shí)現(xiàn)了個(gè)體與個(gè)體之間的信息互通、資源共享和資金流動(dòng)。但是P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)在我國(guó)的發(fā)展過(guò)程中,衍生出了許多具有“中國(guó)特色”的新模式、新業(yè)務(wù),這使得P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)的內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理和外部金融監(jiān)管變得更加復(fù)雜,以致于出現(xiàn)了各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn),其中財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)尤為突出。因此,如何對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別與管控是當(dāng)前P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)健康發(fā)展亟待解決的問(wèn)題,也正是本文研究的意義所在。在上述現(xiàn)實(shí)背景下,本文以我國(guó)P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)研究法與實(shí)證研究法,對(duì)其財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系。首先,學(xué)習(xí)和研究了國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),為后續(xù)論文的撰寫奠定了基礎(chǔ);其次,在對(duì)行業(yè)發(fā)展概況、主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類及成因的研究基礎(chǔ)上,較為全面的分析了P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)所面臨的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn);再者,基于CAMEL評(píng)價(jià)體系設(shè)計(jì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo),并利用因子分析法和SVM模型構(gòu)建P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系;最后,選取20家典型平臺(tái)作為樣本進(jìn)行研究,結(jié)合P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征和實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果,對(duì)如何防范財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出針對(duì)性的對(duì)策建議。本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn):P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要表現(xiàn)在資本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、盈利性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等方面,其中流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較為突出,對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響較大;基于CAMEL評(píng)價(jià)體系設(shè)計(jì)的指標(biāo)能夠較為全面的反映P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并且所構(gòu)建的SVM預(yù)警模型預(yù)警準(zhǔn)確率較高,其中,基于核函數(shù)Sigmoid的預(yù)警模型準(zhǔn)確率最高,能夠較為準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)面臨的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系的構(gòu)建,有效的識(shí)別了平臺(tái)面臨的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸平臺(tái)通過(guò)提高財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范意識(shí),完善風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系,建立數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)監(jiān)測(cè)機(jī)制來(lái)防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以此尋求長(zhǎng)效的、健康的發(fā)展模式。隨著金融市場(chǎng)環(huán)境的不斷優(yōu)化,P2P網(wǎng)絡(luò)借貸行業(yè)必將迎來(lái)新一輪的發(fā)展,成為推動(dòng)我國(guó)金融業(yè)發(fā)展的重要?jiǎng)恿Α?br/>[Abstract]:Internet finance is a great change in the financial industry, its appearance has greatly enriched the financial market. Internet finance includes P2P network lending, crowdfunding and third-party payments. P2P network lending, with the advantages of low cost, low threshold and fast running of funds, has developed rapidly. As a financial innovation model in the era of network, P2P network lending. On the one hand, it has become an important tool to alleviate the financing gap of SMEs and solve the private capital investment needs, on the other hand, as an important part of inclusive finance and democratic finance. Individual and individual information exchange, resource sharing and capital flow, but P2P network lending platform in China's development process, has derived many "Chinese characteristics" of the new model, new business. This makes the internal risk management and external financial supervision of P2P network lending platform become more complex, resulting in a variety of risks, in which the financial risk is particularly prominent. How to identify and control the financial risks is a problem to be solved in the current P2P network lending platform, which is also the significance of this study. This paper takes our country P2P network loan platform as the research object, uses the literature research method and the empirical research method, carries on the research to its financial risk. On this basis, a P2P network lending platform financial risk early warning system is constructed. First of all, study and research on P2P network lending and financial risk early warning literature at home and abroad. It lays a foundation for the writing of subsequent papers; Secondly, on the basis of the research of industry development, main risk classification and causes, the financial risk of P2P network lending platform is analyzed comprehensively. Thirdly, the financial risk early warning index is designed based on CAMEL evaluation system, and the financial risk early warning system of P2P network lending platform is constructed by factor analysis and SVM model. Finally, 20 typical platforms are selected as samples to study, combined with the financial risk characteristics of P2P network lending platform and the results of empirical analysis. In this paper, we find that the financial risk of the P2P network lending platform is mainly manifested in capital risk, liquidity risk. In the aspects of profitability risk and asset quality risk, liquidity risk is more prominent, which has a great influence on financial risk. The index based on CAMEL evaluation system can comprehensively reflect the financial risk of P2P network lending platform, and the early warning accuracy of the SVM early-warning model is high. The early warning model based on kernel function Sigmoid has the highest accuracy and can accurately predict the financial risk of P2P network lending platform. On this basis, P2P network lending platform can improve the awareness of financial risk prevention, improve the risk management system, establish data statistical monitoring mechanism to prevent risks. With the continuous optimization of the financial market environment, P2P network lending industry will usher in a new round of development, and become an important driving force to promote the development of our financial industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F724.6;F832.4;F830.42

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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