本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國基本養(yǎng)老保險基金多元化投資組合與風(fēng)險預(yù)警研究　出處：《西北大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 基本養(yǎng)老保險基金 多元化投資 風(fēng)險預(yù)警

【摘要】：隨著我國老齡化的加劇,通貨膨脹的不確定性以及養(yǎng)老待遇的剛性增長,未來我國養(yǎng)老金的支出壓力越來越大。在基本養(yǎng)老保險基金現(xiàn)行政策下,其投資渠道窄,投資收益低,基本養(yǎng)老金不斷被通貨膨脹侵蝕,基本養(yǎng)老保險基金連保值的目標(biāo)都無法達到,更別說增值。但是,我國基本養(yǎng)老保險基金多元化投資可以改善上述狀況,首先,我國基本養(yǎng)老保險基金累計結(jié)余越來越多,這為基本養(yǎng)老保險基金進行多元化提供了資金支持,其次,全國社�；鸷推髽I(yè)年金的運營為其提供借鑒,最后,國家也在逐步放松對其投資工具的政策限制。研究基本養(yǎng)老保險基金的多元化投資與風(fēng)險預(yù)警對養(yǎng)老保險制度而言,仍有理論和現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先對我國基本養(yǎng)老保險基金投資運營的現(xiàn)狀進行回顧和分析,并對我國基本養(yǎng)老保險基金多元化投資的可行性與必要性進行了分析。其次,運用投資組合理論,選取1978-2012年的CPI年平均值作為保值率,通過十八大提出的到2020年GDP翻一番計算出來的年增長率為較高收益率,選擇銀行存款、國債和股票為投資工具,并以此構(gòu)建基本養(yǎng)老保險基金多元化投資組合模型,計算出投資工具的收益率以及相關(guān)性,最后得出投資工具的投資比例與方差,保值目標(biāo)的投資比例為股票3.97%、國債9.52%、銀行存款86.51%,增值目標(biāo)的投資比例為20.33%、48.71%和30.96%,再次根據(jù)風(fēng)險管理理論,確立以方差衡量風(fēng)險的方法,并借此劃分風(fēng)險等級,提出降低風(fēng)險的處理方法,然后通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn)投資工具只限于國債和銀行存款將無法實現(xiàn)保值增值,多元化是其未來趨勢,基本養(yǎng)老金將受益于利率的市場化,但風(fēng)險預(yù)警制度的建立是多元化投資的前提。最后根據(jù)分析結(jié)論,從統(tǒng)籌層次、投資渠道、管理理念和風(fēng)險預(yù)警方面提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the aggravation of the aging of our country, the uncertainty of inflation and the rigid increase of pension treatment, the expenditure pressure of pension in our country will be more and more great in the future. Under the current policy of basic pension insurance fund. Its investment channel is narrow, the investment income is low, the basic pension is continuously eroded by the inflation, the basic pension insurance fund can not even maintain the value, not to mention the increment. China's basic pension fund diversification can improve the situation. First of all, China's basic pension fund accumulation balance is increasing, which provides financial support for the basic pension fund diversification. Secondly, the national social security fund and the operation of enterprise annuity provide reference for it, finally. The government is also gradually relaxing the policy restrictions on its investment tools. It is still of theoretical and practical significance to study the diversification investment and risk early warning of the basic pension fund for the pension insurance system. This paper firstly reviews and analyzes the present situation of the investment and operation of the basic endowment insurance fund in China, and analyzes the feasibility and necessity of the diversification investment of the basic pension insurance fund in our country. Based on portfolio theory, the annual average value of CPI from 1978 to 2012 is chosen as the hedge rate. The annual growth rate, calculated by doubling GDP by 2020, proposed by the 18 National Congress, is a relatively high yield, with bank deposits, treasury bonds and stocks as investment instruments. Based on this, we construct a diversified portfolio model of basic pension insurance fund, calculate the return rate and correlation of investment tools, and finally get the investment ratio and variance of investment tools. The investment ratio of the value preservation target is 3.97 stocks, 9.52% of national debt, 86.51% of bank deposits, and 20.33% and 30.96%% of the investment ratio of appreciation target. Thirdly, according to the theory of risk management, the paper establishes the method of measuring risk by variance, and then classifies the risk grade and puts forward the method to reduce the risk. Then it is found that investment instruments are limited to treasury bonds and bank deposits will not be able to achieve value preservation and appreciation, diversification is its future trend, basic pension will benefit from the marketization of interest rates. However, the establishment of risk early warning system is the premise of diversified investment. Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions from the aspects of overall planning, investment channels, management concepts and risk early warning.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.67;F832.51

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