本文關(guān)鍵詞：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與銀行信貸的關(guān)系研究　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：從1998年房改至今,中國房地產(chǎn)市場經(jīng)歷了幾次波動(dòng)起伏,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格在這18年間增幅高達(dá)262%,房貸成為一代人沉重的負(fù)擔(dān),不斷變換的政策,不斷累積的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),不斷跳動(dòng)的房價(jià),讓房地產(chǎn)研究具有了現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。理論部分著重分析了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸的互動(dòng)機(jī)理,分析出銀行信貸對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格有正向和負(fù)向的推動(dòng)作用,且房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)銀行信貸也有正向和負(fù)向的推動(dòng)作用,但正向和負(fù)向推動(dòng)作用的效果無法通過理論分析出,這部分需要通過實(shí)證部分得到實(shí)際的結(jié)果�，F(xiàn)狀部分分為兩節(jié),首先本文整理了 1998年至2016年房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的政策,并根據(jù)政策效果分為五個(gè)周期,可以用"鼓勵(lì)——抑制——鼓勵(lì)——抑制——鼓勵(lì)"來簡單概括,政策拐點(diǎn)的時(shí)間點(diǎn)分別為2004年,2008年10月,2009年12月和2014年。并結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策分析房地產(chǎn)市場的各類指標(biāo),發(fā)現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸的數(shù)據(jù)波動(dòng)與房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策周期相吻合,但有長短不一的時(shí)滯性;其次,將1998-2016依據(jù)貨幣供應(yīng)量M2劃分為兩個(gè)周期,拐點(diǎn)為2009年,2009年之前,M2增速緩慢,2009年之后M2增速加劇,結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)2009年是房地產(chǎn)供給以及房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)資金拐點(diǎn)。2009年以后,房地產(chǎn)市場供過于求的趨勢開始顯現(xiàn)。房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)資金以2009年為分界點(diǎn),2009年之前,增速緩慢,2009年后房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)資金增速較高。實(shí)證部分本文以全國30個(gè)省、市、自治區(qū)2002-2016年的數(shù)據(jù),建立動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型,分區(qū)域探究房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸的關(guān)系。指標(biāo)選取方面,除房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸外,控制變量選取土地價(jià)格代表房地產(chǎn)市場供給層面,選取人均GDP代表需求層面。分析方法方面,先對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸的關(guān)系進(jìn)行理論分析,再使用數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,通過單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn),隨后構(gòu)建了動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型,先研究全國及東中西部三個(gè)區(qū)域銀行信貸對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響,再研究全國及東中西三個(gè)區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)銀行信貸的影響,研究時(shí)使用GMM估計(jì)方法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行估計(jì),研究結(jié)果通過過度識(shí)別檢驗(yàn)和序列相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)。論文得出結(jié)論如下:1.房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸間有長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,且房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和銀行信貸是彼此的格蘭杰原因。2.銀行信貸對(duì)房價(jià)短期有正向推動(dòng)作用,但各地區(qū)銀行信貸對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格推動(dòng)效果不一致,東部地區(qū)效果最強(qiáng),西部次之,而中部地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)于銀行信貸的依賴性較低,但對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面的依賴性較高;3.短期內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的增長對(duì)銀行信貸的增長有正向推動(dòng)作用,西部地區(qū)正向推動(dòng)作用最強(qiáng),中部次之,東部最弱。最后結(jié)合現(xiàn)狀分析的結(jié)果以及實(shí)證分析結(jié)果,并考慮中國東中西部區(qū)域的異質(zhì)性提出三條政策建議。
[Abstract]:From 1998 to now, China's real estate market has experienced several fluctuations, real estate prices in these 18 years as high as 262 increase, mortgage has become a heavy burden for a generation, constantly changing policies. The constant accumulation of risk, the beating house prices, so that the real estate research has practical significance. The theoretical part focuses on the analysis of real estate prices and bank credit interaction mechanism. The analysis shows that bank credit has a positive and negative impact on real estate prices, and real estate prices also have a positive and negative impact on bank credit. But the effect of positive and negative push can not be analyzed by theory, this part needs to get the actual results through the empirical part. The present situation part is divided into two sections. First of all, this paper arranges the real estate regulation policy from 1998 to 2016, and divides it into five cycles according to the effect of the policy. A brief summary can be made with "encouragement-inhibition-encouragement-inhibition-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-encouragement-. In December 2009 and 2014, combined with the real estate regulation policy analysis of various indicators of the real estate market, it is found that the real estate price and bank credit data fluctuations in line with the real estate regulatory policy cycle. But there are different time delay. Secondly, according to the money supply M2 divided into two cycles, the inflection point is 2009, before 2009, M2 growth rate is slow, after 2009 M2 growth rate intensified. Combined with the data found that 2009 is the real estate supply and real estate development capital inflection point. 2009. The trend of oversupply in the real estate market is beginning to show. The capital for real estate development is divided by 2009, and the growth rate was slow until 2009. After 2009, the real estate development fund growth rate is relatively high. The empirical part of this paper based on the data of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2002 to 2016, establish the dynamic panel model. This paper explores the relationship between real estate prices and bank credit. In addition to real estate prices and bank credit, the control variables select land prices to represent the real estate market supply level. Choose per capita GDP to represent the level of demand. In terms of analysis methods, the relationship between real estate prices and bank credit is analyzed theoretically, and then the data is used for empirical analysis, through unit root test, cointegration test. Granger causality test followed by a dynamic panel model to study the impact of bank credit on real estate prices. Then study the impact of real estate prices on bank credit in the three regions of China, East and West, and use GMM estimation method to estimate the model. The conclusions are as follows: 1. There is a long-term stable relationship between real estate prices and bank credit. And real estate prices and bank credit are the Granger reasons for each other. 2. Bank credit has a positive impact on house prices in the short term, but the effect of bank credit on real estate prices in different regions is not consistent. The effect of real estate in the east is the strongest, followed by the west, while the price of real estate in the central region is less dependent on bank credit, but higher on the economic fundamentals. 3. In the short term, the growth of real estate price has a positive effect on the growth of bank credit, the western region has the strongest positive promotion effect, and the middle part is the second. In the end, three policy recommendations are put forward considering the heterogeneity of the eastern, central and western regions of China, combined with the results of the current situation analysis and the empirical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.4

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