本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于投資時(shí)鐘理論的大類(lèi)資產(chǎn)配置研究　出處：《河北大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 投資時(shí)鐘 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期 資產(chǎn)配置

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)步的發(fā)展，居民收入的日益提高，，社會(huì)整體對(duì)閑置資金的保值增值需求不斷增加。同時(shí)，我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的日益繁榮，使投資者的投資領(lǐng)域和持有的投資品種日趨多元化。大型機(jī)構(gòu)投資者如銀行、證券公司、基金和信托等都把資產(chǎn)配置的優(yōu)化和其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢(shì)的適應(yīng)性作為自身發(fā)展的重要考慮因素。如何把握宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、提高資產(chǎn)配置的合理性并從中獲得收益，逐漸成為投資機(jī)構(gòu)和投資者考慮的重要問(wèn)題。因此本文在借鑒美林證券的投資時(shí)鐘理論的基礎(chǔ)之上，力圖得到適合我國(guó)市場(chǎng)的投資時(shí)鐘，來(lái)指導(dǎo)投資者在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)周期環(huán)境中進(jìn)行資產(chǎn)配置。 本文首先總結(jié)了前人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和資產(chǎn)配置的相關(guān)研究，同時(shí)闡述了最新的投資時(shí)鐘的理論和方法。然后在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境下，論述了投資時(shí)鐘運(yùn)用的合理性，并通過(guò)分析我國(guó)1994年以來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的趨勢(shì)，對(duì)相應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期進(jìn)行了階段劃分，計(jì)算了不同大類(lèi)資產(chǎn)在各經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段中的不同收益。接著比較了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的投資時(shí)鐘與美林的投資時(shí)鐘理論的異同，結(jié)合我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件對(duì)其加以完善和改進(jìn)。 文章共分為五章。第一章導(dǎo)論，介紹了研究的背景和意義以及相關(guān)研究的現(xiàn)狀。第二章大類(lèi)資產(chǎn)及投資時(shí)鐘理論，論述了研究中大類(lèi)資產(chǎn)劃分的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，也對(duì)美林提出的投資時(shí)鐘理論的相關(guān)研究思路與方法進(jìn)行了概述與總結(jié)，對(duì)后文的研究起到鋪墊的作用。第三章我國(guó)市場(chǎng)投資時(shí)鐘與資產(chǎn)配置，是在上文基礎(chǔ)上研究我國(guó)市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下的投資時(shí)鐘。通過(guò)劃分我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的不同階段，對(duì)不同階段的不同大類(lèi)資產(chǎn)收益率進(jìn)行計(jì)算和相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)檢驗(yàn)。最后總結(jié)出我國(guó)市場(chǎng)中投資時(shí)鐘的規(guī)律及其與傳統(tǒng)投資時(shí)鐘的異同。第四章結(jié)論，在參考我國(guó)市場(chǎng)投資時(shí)鐘自身規(guī)律的前提下，提出了方法的改進(jìn)和對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)投資者資產(chǎn)配置的建議。
[Abstract]:As China's economic development steadily, income increasing, the whole society of idle funds and increase the value of increasing demand. At the same time, China's financial market increasingly prosperous, the investment field and hold investment varieties increasingly diversified. Large institutional investors such as banks, securities companies, funds and trust etc. the key factors to optimize asset allocation and its adaptability to the situation of the economic development for their own development. How to grasp the macro economic fluctuation, improve the rationality of asset allocation and derive income, an important issue has gradually become investment institutions and investors to consider. So this paper on the basis of Merrill Lynch Investment clock theory. To be suitable for our market, the investment clock, to guide investors asset allocation in different economic cycle environment.
This paper first summarizes the research related to the economic cycle and asset allocation of the predecessors, and expounds the theory and method of the new clock. Then investment in China's economic environment, discusses the rationality of investment clock application, and through the analysis of the trend of economic operation in our country since 1994, the corresponding stages of a cycle division of different benefits of different categories of assets in the economic cycle stage was calculated. Then compare the investment clock theory and Merrill Lynch Investment clock in our economy. The combination of China's economic conditions on the perfected and improved.
The article is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, introduces the background and significance of the study and related research. The second chapter is the largest category of assets and investment clock theory, discusses the types of research in asset classification standards, research ideas and methods of Merrill Lynch Investment clock theory proposed were summarized and concluded, for later research in this paper plays a supplementary role. The third chapter of our country market investment clock and asset allocation, is the study of China's market environment investment clock based on the above. Through the different stages of China's economic cycle, calculation and statistical analysis of the different stages of the different categories of asset returns the clock. Finally summed up the investment in the market of China Law and its comparison with traditional investment clock. The fourth chapter is the conclusion, on the basis of our market investment clock's own law, put forward the improvement method And suggestions to domestic investors asset allocation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.48

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本文編號(hào)：1406344