大連市出租車運力合理規(guī)模研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-11 11:51
【摘要】：隨著生活水平不斷提高，人們對公交客運的要求越來越高，這時具有快速、舒適等特點的出租車的需求正好滿足了出行者高層次的需求，它已成為城市客運交通系統(tǒng)的一個重要補充。出租車作為城市客運交通系統(tǒng)中重要一環(huán)，在系統(tǒng)中應當占有多大的分擔率，政府每年的投放量該如何控制，，如何才能使城市的客運交通系統(tǒng)更加完善，更好地促進出租車行業(yè)健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展，現(xiàn)在已成為一個越來越被關注的課題。 大連作為一個走在發(fā)展前列的城市，出租車行業(yè)在近幾年發(fā)展卻比較緩慢，本文以大連市為例，通過歷史數(shù)據(jù)對大連市出租車的運力規(guī)模進行評價和修正。但隨著大連地鐵即將建成，在未來要根據(jù)這一種重要影響因素，控制好出租車投放量，避免在大連地鐵建成之后，出現(xiàn)投放量過大而導致空載率過高的現(xiàn)象。本文先對影響客運總量的因素進行了一一分析，然后運用SPSS軟件對未來的客運總量進行預測，再通過建立出租車分擔率模型，分別計算出地鐵建成前后出租車不同的分擔率，再通過供需平衡法來計算出租車合理的運力規(guī)模，然后對此運力規(guī)模進行評價分析，并對出租車行業(yè)提出了建議。 現(xiàn)在大多數(shù)城市地鐵已經(jīng)建成或即將建成，這對出租車市場會造成不小的沖擊，在面對這種情況，如何更加合理的推算出出租車的運力規(guī)模是非常重要的。大多數(shù)研究并沒有把地鐵這一重要影響因素加入到模型中，這對于合理計算出租車運力規(guī)模是不準確的，本文在模型中加入這一重要影響因素，從而更加合理的計算出租車運力規(guī)模。論文旨在為大連市出租車行業(yè)提供理論依據(jù)，為出租車運力規(guī)模調(diào)控提供科學合理的數(shù)學模型。通過對論文預測模型中參數(shù)、數(shù)據(jù)和決策的合理分析和適當標定，結(jié)合大連市實際情況、未來出租車行業(yè)的發(fā)展方向和在綜合交通系統(tǒng)中的定位，運用客運總量預測模型和出租車分擔率模型做出適合本地實情的正確決策，維護出租車行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of living standards, people have higher and higher requirements for public transport. At this time, the demand for taxis with the characteristics of speed and comfort just meets the needs of travelers at a high level. It has become an important supplement to the urban passenger transport system. As an important part of the urban passenger transportation system, how much share should the taxi take in the system, how to control the amount of the annual government, and how to make the city's passenger transport system more perfect? Better promote the taxi industry healthy and stable development, has become a more and more concerned topic. Dalian, as a city in the forefront of development, taxi industry in recent years has been relatively slow development, this paper takes Dalian as an example, through historical data to evaluate and revise the scale of taxi capacity in Dalian. However, with the completion of Dalian Metro, it is necessary to control the number of taxis according to this important influence factor in the future, to avoid the phenomenon of excessive quantity and high no-load rate after the completion of Dalian Metro. In this paper, the factors that affect the total amount of passenger transportation are analyzed one by one, then the future total amount of passenger transportation is predicted by using SPSS software, and then the different sharing rates of taxis before and after the completion of the subway are calculated by establishing the taxi share rate model. The reasonable capacity scale of taxi is calculated by the method of balance of supply and demand, then the capacity scale of taxi is evaluated and analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward to the taxi industry. Now most city subway has been built or is about to be built, which will have a great impact on the taxi market. In the face of this situation, how to calculate the scale of taxi capacity more reasonably is very important. Most of the studies do not include the subway as an important factor in the model, which is not accurate for the reasonable calculation of taxi capacity, this paper adds this important influence factor to the model. Thus more reasonable calculation of taxi capacity scale. The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for the taxi industry in Dalian and to provide a scientific and reasonable mathematical model for the scale control of taxi capacity. Through reasonable analysis and proper calibration of parameters, data and decision-making in the prediction model of the paper, combined with the actual situation of Dalian City, the future development direction of taxi industry and its orientation in the integrated transportation system are discussed. In order to maintain the healthy development of taxi industry, the forecast model of total passenger transportation and the model of taxi share rate are used to make the correct decision suitable for the local situation.
【學位授予單位】：大連工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F572.7
本文編號：2324757
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of living standards, people have higher and higher requirements for public transport. At this time, the demand for taxis with the characteristics of speed and comfort just meets the needs of travelers at a high level. It has become an important supplement to the urban passenger transport system. As an important part of the urban passenger transportation system, how much share should the taxi take in the system, how to control the amount of the annual government, and how to make the city's passenger transport system more perfect? Better promote the taxi industry healthy and stable development, has become a more and more concerned topic. Dalian, as a city in the forefront of development, taxi industry in recent years has been relatively slow development, this paper takes Dalian as an example, through historical data to evaluate and revise the scale of taxi capacity in Dalian. However, with the completion of Dalian Metro, it is necessary to control the number of taxis according to this important influence factor in the future, to avoid the phenomenon of excessive quantity and high no-load rate after the completion of Dalian Metro. In this paper, the factors that affect the total amount of passenger transportation are analyzed one by one, then the future total amount of passenger transportation is predicted by using SPSS software, and then the different sharing rates of taxis before and after the completion of the subway are calculated by establishing the taxi share rate model. The reasonable capacity scale of taxi is calculated by the method of balance of supply and demand, then the capacity scale of taxi is evaluated and analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward to the taxi industry. Now most city subway has been built or is about to be built, which will have a great impact on the taxi market. In the face of this situation, how to calculate the scale of taxi capacity more reasonably is very important. Most of the studies do not include the subway as an important factor in the model, which is not accurate for the reasonable calculation of taxi capacity, this paper adds this important influence factor to the model. Thus more reasonable calculation of taxi capacity scale. The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for the taxi industry in Dalian and to provide a scientific and reasonable mathematical model for the scale control of taxi capacity. Through reasonable analysis and proper calibration of parameters, data and decision-making in the prediction model of the paper, combined with the actual situation of Dalian City, the future development direction of taxi industry and its orientation in the integrated transportation system are discussed. In order to maintain the healthy development of taxi industry, the forecast model of total passenger transportation and the model of taxi share rate are used to make the correct decision suitable for the local situation.
【學位授予單位】：大連工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F572.7
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 高成;出租汽車發(fā)展規(guī)劃研究[J];城市公共交通;2003年05期
2 常超凡;毛保華;陳團生;劉明君;高峰;;出租車擁有量對分擔率影響研究[J];城市公共交通;2007年08期
3 陸建,王煒;城市居民出行時耗特征分析研究[J];公路交通科技;2004年10期
4 錢勇生;�；菝�;周波;;城市出租車容量控制集合模型及應用[J];武漢理工大學學報(交通科學與工程版);2007年02期
5 陸建,王煒;城市出租車擁有量確定方法[J];交通運輸工程學報;2004年01期
6 宋安;劉琦;;出租車保有量評價與預測[J];交通科技與經(jīng)濟;2010年03期
7 劉長虹,黃虎,陳力華;客運量預測方法的探討[J];上海工程技術大學學報;2004年03期
8 柳松青;MATLAB神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡BP網(wǎng)絡研究與應用[J];計算機工程與設計;2003年11期
9 胡浩;李雪峰;彭俊;;城市交通管理中的出租車規(guī)劃[J];數(shù)學的實踐與認識;2006年07期
10 車嵐;;城市出租車發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及需求預測[J];山西科技;2006年06期
本文編號：2324757
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/jingjilunwen/jtysjj/2324757.html
教材專著
