【摘要】：城際鐵路建設(shè)已日益受到政府的重視和民眾的關(guān)注。在建設(shè)實(shí)施期，城際鐵路施工承包商會(huì)遇到來自自然、社會(huì)等方面的多方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素中，施工承包商遇到的外部主體行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來越突出，這些外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)影響項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)，如果不加以控制將直接影響城際鐵路工程建設(shè)的順利進(jìn)行，甚至?xí)斐蓢?yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和人員傷亡。因此，對城際鐵路施工承包商的外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究，很有現(xiàn)實(shí)的必要。 本論文首先從城際鐵路施工承包商角度出發(fā)，結(jié)合文獻(xiàn)資料，針對施工承包商的外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分析，完成了對城際鐵路施工承包商的外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別與分析。繼而從外部主體無法履行合同產(chǎn)生的信用行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、外部主體追求自身利益最大化產(chǎn)生的道德行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及外部主體自身能力不足產(chǎn)生的能力行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)三個(gè)角度對該行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的形成機(jī)理進(jìn)行了探討，并以此為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)初始清單，展開對施工承包商外部主體特定行為的問卷調(diào)查，在大量實(shí)地調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合德爾菲專家咨詢法構(gòu)建了一套城際鐵路施工承包商的外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系，其中包括6個(gè)一級指標(biāo)、9個(gè)二級指標(biāo)和21個(gè)三級指標(biāo)。一級指標(biāo)分別為：業(yè)主行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、監(jiān)理工程師行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、設(shè)計(jì)者行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、材料設(shè)備供應(yīng)商行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政府行政主管部門人員行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及沿線居民和單位行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并針對三級指標(biāo)提出了詳細(xì)的評分細(xì)則。采用灰色定權(quán)聚類方法建立了城際鐵路施工承包商的外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)模型。該方法在充分吸收專家評價(jià)知識(shí)、經(jīng)驗(yàn)的同時(shí)，又對一些主體行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)界定不清的判斷進(jìn)行了定量化處理，，為實(shí)際項(xiàng)目提供一個(gè)實(shí)用、簡便的評價(jià)方法。并利用該模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)例分析，最后給出了對城際鐵路施工承包商的外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的控制措施。 本論文對城際鐵路施工承包商的外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究豐富和完善了城際鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論，試圖對今后城際鐵路施工承包商外部行為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)過程評價(jià)提供理論指導(dǎo)和實(shí)踐參考。
[Abstract]:The construction of intercity railway has been paid more and more attention by the government and the public. In the construction implementation period, inter-city railway construction contractors encountered from natural, social and other aspects of risk. Among the risk factors of the project, the behavior risk of the external subject encountered by the construction contractor is more and more prominent. These external behavioral risks will affect the realization of the project objectives. If not controlled, it will directly affect the smooth progress of the inter-city railway project construction. It can even cause serious economic losses and casualties. Therefore, it is necessary to study the external risk of intercity railway construction contractor. Firstly, from the angle of inter-city railway construction contractor, combined with the literature, this paper analyzes the external behavior risk factors of the construction contractor, and completes the identification and analysis of the external behavior risk of the inter-city railway construction contractor. Then the risk of credit behavior arising from the inability of the external subject to perform the contract, This paper probes into the forming mechanism of the behavior risk from three angles: the moral behavior risk caused by the external subject pursuing the maximization of its own interests and the ability behavior risk caused by the external subject's own insufficient capacity, which is regarded as the initial list of the risks. Based on a large number of field investigations and Delphi's expert consultation method, a set of index system of external behavior risk assessment of intercity railway construction contractor is constructed, which is based on a questionnaire survey on the specific behavior of the external subject of the construction contractor. These include 6 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators and 21 third-level indicators. The first grade indicators are: the behavior risk of the owner, the behavior risk of the supervision engineer, the behavior risk of the designer, the behavior risk of the material and equipment supplier, the behavior risk of the personnel of the government administrative department, and the behavior risk of residents and units along the line. At the same time, the detailed grading rules are put forward for the three-level index. The external behavior risk assessment model of intercity railway contractor is established by grey weight clustering method. This method not only fully absorbs the expert evaluation knowledge and experience, but also quantifies the judgment of some subjects' behavior risk which is not clearly defined, and provides a practical and simple evaluation method for the actual project. Finally, the control measures of the exterior behavior risk of the intercity railway contractor are given. This paper enriches and perfects the risk management theory of inter-city railway construction project by studying the external behavior risk of inter-city railway construction contractor. This paper attempts to provide theoretical guidance and practical reference for the evaluation of external behavior risk process of intercity railway construction contractors in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F532;F426.92;F224

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