【摘要】：為滿足城際間日益增長的旅客運輸需求,我國在建設“四縱四橫”客運專線的同時,正在進一步延伸并擴大快速客運網絡的覆蓋范圍。客運專線的建設和運營,很大程度上緩解了鐵路客運能力瓶頸問題,也不可避免地加劇了國內客運市場各種運輸方式之間的競爭,導致客運專線市場化運營趨勢進一步得到體現(xiàn)。美、法、英、德等國家鐵路客運公司的多年來市場化運營經驗表明,收益管理是優(yōu)化運力結構和資源配置、提高鐵路競爭力和運營收益的有效方法。因此,開展客運專線收益管理研究,尤其是基于旅客選擇行為、而不是僅從客運專線公司角度開展收益管理研究,不僅體現(xiàn)了以旅客為本的思想,也隸屬于收益管理研究中的熱點,具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義,為客運專線實施收益管理提供了借鑒和新視角。本文第一章從理論研究和規(guī)劃實踐兩個方面分析了選題背景,闡述了客運專線實施收益管理的可行性、必要性和開展收益管理研究的意義,并在對鐵路收益管理應用和研究現(xiàn)狀系統(tǒng)分析的基礎上闡述了有待研究的問題。第二章對收益管理和旅客選擇行為的研究成果進行了綜述,從而有效把握了收益管理的發(fā)展歷程、基本內涵、研究內容及基礎模型,明確了動態(tài)定價和存量控制兩種收益管理手段的研究現(xiàn)狀和前沿動態(tài),了解了消費者選擇行為基礎理論和收益管理中常見的消費者選擇行為類型,為后文展開提供了研究依據(jù),并奠定了工作基礎。第三章構建了旅客對客運專線產品的總體評價關于安全、舒適、速度、頻率、準點、價格、便捷七項屬性評價的混合回歸模型,并采用EM算法估計回歸系數(shù),根據(jù)貝葉斯統(tǒng)計理論計算旅客屬于各類型的概率,利用貝葉斯信息標準和赤池信息標準判定旅客種類個數(shù)。結合武廣客運專線旅客問卷調查數(shù)據(jù),將旅客市場細分為四種類型,并對不同類型旅客的社會經濟特征和出行需求特征進行關聯(lián)分析。第四章借助保留價格刻畫旅客選擇行為,并假設預訂相同路徑客票的旅客的保留價格獨立且服從同一分布,結合已知票價集合和需求概率,根據(jù)Bellman最優(yōu)化原理,構建動態(tài)規(guī)劃模型,使得可通過票價的動態(tài)調整來最優(yōu)化客運專線期望收益。進一步證得,客票的最優(yōu)價格隨著其邊際期望收益的增大而提高,單區(qū)段和兩區(qū)段客運專線的最優(yōu)票價策略具有閥值特性。第五章針對兩個票價等級、多個區(qū)段的客運專線收益優(yōu)化問題,假設旅客存在buy-up行為且其概率已知,在給定客票價格和需求分布的條件下,以各路徑客票的嵌套式預訂限制為決策變量,構建帶約束的非線性整數(shù)規(guī)劃模型,并通過解生成點的獲取、初始粒子群的生成、粒子適應值計算、粒子位置更新這四個步驟,實現(xiàn)了模型的求解。第六章針對多區(qū)段、多車次、多票價等級的客運專線的收益優(yōu)化問題,借助偏好序刻畫旅客的選擇行為,在給定客票和旅客類別特征的條件下,以每個預售時段客票的控制策略為決策變量,構建動態(tài)規(guī)劃模型。鑒于模型規(guī)模較大,構建基于選擇的確定性線性規(guī)劃模型對其進行近似,并采用列生成算法和遺傳模擬退火算法求解,進而利用所得最優(yōu)對偶解對原動態(tài)規(guī)劃模型進行啟發(fā)式分解,最終實現(xiàn)了客運專線期望收益的近似優(yōu)化。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the increasing passenger transport demand between cities, China is extending and expanding the coverage of the rapid passenger transport network while building the "four vertical and four horizontal" passenger dedicated lines. Competition among various modes of transport in the airport has led to the further realization of the market-oriented operation trend of passenger dedicated lines. The experience of the United States, France, Britain, Germany and other national railway passenger transport companies over the years has shown that revenue management is an effective way to optimize the structure of transport capacity and resource allocation, and to enhance the competitiveness of the railway and operating income. Research on revenue management of PDL, especially on the basis of passenger choice behavior, rather than just from the perspective of PDL company, not only embodies the idea of passenger-oriented, but also belongs to the hotspot of revenue management research. It has important theoretical and practical significance, and provides a reference for the implementation of revenue management of PDL. The first chapter of this paper analyzes the background of the topic selection from two aspects of theoretical research and planning practice, expounds the feasibility, necessity and significance of carrying out revenue management research on passenger dedicated lines, and expounds the problems to be studied on the basis of systematic analysis of the application and research status of railway revenue management. This paper summarizes the research results of revenue management and passenger choice behavior, thus effectively grasping the development process, basic connotation, research content and basic model of revenue management, clarifying the research status and frontier trends of dynamic pricing and inventory control, and understanding the basic theory and benefits of consumer choice behavior. Chapter 3 establishes a mixed regression model of seven attributes evaluation of passenger dedicated line products, including safety, comfort, speed, frequency, punctuality, price and convenience, and estimates the regression coefficient with EM algorithm. According to Bayesian statistical theory, the probability of different types of passengers is calculated, and the number of types of passengers is determined by Bayesian information standard and Chichi information standard.Combining with the questionnaire survey data of passengers on Wuhan-Guangzhou passenger dedicated line, the passenger market is divided into four types, and the socio-economic characteristics and travel demand characteristics of different types of passengers are related. In Chapter 4, the reserved price is used to characterize the behavior of passenger selection, and the reserved price is assumed to be independent and subject to the same distribution. Combining with the known fare set and demand probability, a dynamic programming model is constructed based on Bellman optimization principle to optimize the passenger dedicated transport system through the dynamic adjustment of the fare. It is further proved that the optimal price of passenger tickets increases with the increase of marginal expected revenue, and the optimal fare strategies for single and two-section passenger dedicated lines have threshold characteristics. Under the condition of given ticket price and demand distribution, a nonlinear integer programming model with constraints is constructed by taking nested reservation constraints of each route ticket as decision variables. The model is solved by four steps: obtaining the solution generating points, generating the initial particle swarm, calculating the particle fitness value and updating the particle position. Six chapters are devoted to the revenue optimization of multi-section, multi-train and multi-fare passenger dedicated lines. With the help of preference order, the choice behavior of passengers is described. Under the condition of given ticket and passenger class characteristics, the dynamic programming model is constructed with the control strategy of each pre-booking period as the decision variable. The selected deterministic linear programming model is approximated and solved by column generation algorithm and genetic simulated annealing algorithm. Then the optimal dual solution is used to heuristically decompose the original dynamic programming model. Finally, the approximate optimization of the expected revenue of passenger dedicated line is realized.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F532.6;U293

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