基于需求預(yù)測(cè)的軌道交通備件庫(kù)存控制研究
本文選題:上海地鐵 + 備件分類(lèi) ; 參考:《上海交通大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文
【摘要】:上海軌道交通,又稱(chēng)上海地鐵,其第一條線路于1994年12月12日正式運(yùn)營(yíng),是繼北京地鐵、廣州地鐵建成通車(chē)后中國(guó)內(nèi)地投入運(yùn)營(yíng)的第三個(gè)城市軌道交通系統(tǒng),也是目前中國(guó)線路最長(zhǎng)的城市軌道交通系統(tǒng)。截至2012年9月1日,上海軌道交通線網(wǎng)已開(kāi)通運(yùn)營(yíng)11條線、287座車(chē)站,運(yùn)營(yíng)里程達(dá)420公里,目前位居全國(guó)第一。 軌道交通系統(tǒng)的擴(kuò)大意味著對(duì)備件維修和更換要求的提高,然而經(jīng)過(guò)調(diào)研發(fā)現(xiàn)目前上海地鐵物流中心的備件庫(kù)存控制存在頗多缺點(diǎn),本文就其中集中存在的三大問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了討論、計(jì)算與分析。第二章對(duì)地鐵備件分類(lèi)提出了用多項(xiàng)指標(biāo)綜合評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行分類(lèi)的方法,而不再是傳統(tǒng)的價(jià)值分類(lèi)法,并進(jìn)行了實(shí)際分類(lèi)計(jì)算;第三章重點(diǎn)對(duì)需求預(yù)測(cè)提出了不同的預(yù)測(cè)方法,對(duì)需求間斷性強(qiáng)的備件提出了改進(jìn)算法的貝葉斯預(yù)測(cè)方法,對(duì)需求呈連續(xù)型的備件提出了分別適應(yīng)各種分布情況的預(yù)測(cè)方法,包括指數(shù)平滑法,回歸分析法和周期系數(shù)法,同時(shí)也進(jìn)行了實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)的計(jì)算與分析,并對(duì)文中提出的算法編寫(xiě)了相應(yīng)的程序以方便計(jì)算;第四章分析了庫(kù)存控制中比較重要的安全庫(kù)存,提出了基于備件損壞統(tǒng)計(jì)和曲線擬合的備件整體可靠度計(jì)算方法,并根據(jù)該可靠度建立了安全庫(kù)存系數(shù)以防止關(guān)鍵備件的缺貨,進(jìn)而對(duì)分類(lèi)出的不同備件,提出了不同的庫(kù)存策略,建立了不同的庫(kù)存控制模型進(jìn)行有效的控制,并對(duì)文中提出的模型和一些計(jì)算方法編寫(xiě)了相應(yīng)的程序以方便計(jì)算。 綜上所述,本文在解決當(dāng)前上海地鐵物流中心存在的問(wèn)題上提出了相應(yīng)的辦法,,并緊密地與實(shí)際情況相連接,有一定的實(shí)際參考價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Shanghai rail transit, also known as the Shanghai subway, its first line is officially operated in December 12, 1994. It is the third urban rail transit system that has been put into operation in China after the completion of the Beijing subway and the Guangzhou subway has been opened. It is also the longest urban rail transit system in China. As of September 1, 2012, the Shanghai rail transit line The network has opened and operated 11 lines, 287 stations, with a mileage of 420 km, ranking the first in the country.
The expansion of the rail transit system means the improvement of the maintenance and replacement of spare parts. However, it is found that there are many shortcomings in the inventory control of the spare parts of the Shanghai subway logistics center. This paper discusses the three major problems which exist in it, and the second chapter puts forward several indexes for the classification of subway spare parts. The method of classification is synthetically evaluated, not the traditional value classification method, and the actual classification calculation is carried out. The third chapter puts forward different forecasting methods for the demand forecast, and puts forward the Bayesian prediction method of the improved algorithm for the spare parts with strong demand. The prediction methods of distribution, including exponential smoothing, regression analysis and periodic coefficient, also carry out the calculation and analysis of the actual data, and write the corresponding program to facilitate calculation. The fourth chapter analyzes the important safety stock in the inventory control, and puts forward the statistics of the spare parts damage and the statistics of the spare parts. According to the reliability degree, the safety inventory coefficient is established to prevent the shortage of key spare parts, and the different inventory strategies are put forward to different spare parts. The different inventory control models are established and the model and some calculation methods are put forward in this paper. The corresponding program is written to facilitate the calculation.
To sum up, this paper puts forward the corresponding measures to solve the existing problems of the current Shanghai Metro logistics center, and is closely connected with the actual situation, and has certain practical reference value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F259.23;F572;U239.5
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