基于DID模型的貴州高鐵經(jīng)濟效應研究
本文選題:貴州高鐵 + 經(jīng)濟效應; 參考:《貴州師范大學》2017年碩士論文
【摘要】:貴州自然資源豐富,生態(tài)優(yōu)勢突出,長期落后的交通使得貴州經(jīng)濟發(fā)展滯后,區(qū)位優(yōu)勢無法凸顯。貴州搶抓國家政策機遇,大力推動高鐵等交通基礎設施建設。在交通基礎設施的強力帶動作用下,貴州迎來了發(fā)展的大好時機。高鐵的助力縮短了貴州與周邊地區(qū)的時空距離,促進經(jīng)濟要素在區(qū)域快速流動,城鎮(zhèn)化進程加快,高鐵沿線經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)新的變化格局,旅游業(yè)正在從競爭走向特色化和品質(zhì)化,F(xiàn)階段貴州高鐵正快速建設中,高鐵的經(jīng)濟效應隨著時間推移更加凸顯。基于上述背景,論文在梳理國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,首先對高鐵經(jīng)濟效應概念進行了定義,高鐵的出現(xiàn)使得各種要素在沿線及相關區(qū)域內(nèi)得到集聚和優(yōu)化配置,從而帶動某些產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速增長。通過區(qū)域城鎮(zhèn)體系的重構(gòu),區(qū)位優(yōu)勢和交通樞紐的綜合作用發(fā)揮最大限度的作用,這種影響作用就是高鐵帶來的經(jīng)濟效應。其次通過高鐵經(jīng)濟研究方法的文獻梳理確定了本論文的研究方法。隨后探討了貴州高鐵前后的經(jīng)濟變化情況確定了論文的研究視角,構(gòu)建了高鐵經(jīng)濟效應的研究模型。以貴州近十年九個市、州的主要經(jīng)濟測量指標為參考,選取了消費、投資、財政、人均GDP、城鄉(xiāng)人均可支配收入、時間因素、地區(qū)因素七個控制變量,得到高鐵對旅游、商貿(mào)進出口、就業(yè)三個方面的影響結(jié)論,同時對控制變量的顯著影響作用進行分析。最后通過分析現(xiàn)階段貴州的發(fā)展思路,得到相應的措施與建議。貴州高鐵經(jīng)濟研究以定性分析較多,定量分析比較缺乏,本文將DID分析法納入貴州高鐵經(jīng)濟的研究中,從定性分析和定量分析兩方面入手,是對貴州高鐵經(jīng)濟理論研究的補充和完善。從單一變量到多變量的分析,避免了單一看問題的片面性,保證了研究的客觀性和嚴謹性,通過對控制變量的顯著性影響分析,為今后貴州高鐵經(jīng)濟效應的衡量指標的構(gòu)建提供了方向和參考。
[Abstract]:Guizhou is rich in natural resources, outstanding ecological advantages, long-term backward traffic, Guizhou's economic development lags behind, geographical advantages can not be highlighted. Guizhou seize the opportunity of national policy, vigorously promote high-speed rail and other transport infrastructure construction. In the strong driving effect of transportation infrastructure, Guizhou ushered in a good opportunity for development. The power of high-speed rail shortens the space-time distance between Guizhou and the surrounding areas, promotes the rapid flow of economic elements in the region, speeds up the process of urbanization, and presents a new pattern of changes in the economic and social development along the high-speed rail line. Tourism is moving from competition to specialty and quality. The economic effect of high-speed railway in Guizhou is becoming more and more prominent with the passage of time. Based on the above background, the paper firstly defines the concept of economic effect of high-speed rail on the basis of combing the current research situation at home and abroad. Thus drive the rapid growth of certain industries. Through the reconstruction of the regional urban system, the regional advantages and the comprehensive role of the transportation hub play a maximum role, which is the economic effect of high-speed rail. Secondly, the research method of this paper is determined by combing the literature of the economic research method of high-iron. Then, the economic changes of Guizhou before and after high-speed rail are discussed, and the research angle of the paper is determined, and the research model of the economic effect of high-speed rail is constructed. Based on the main economic measurement indicators of nine cities and states in Guizhou over the past ten years, we selected seven control variables of consumption, investment, finance, per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of urban and rural areas, time factors, and regional factors, and obtained seven control variables of high-speed rail to tourism. At the same time, the influence of control variables is analyzed. Finally, through the analysis of Guizhou's current development ideas, the corresponding measures and suggestions are obtained. There are more qualitative analysis and less quantitative analysis in the economic research of high iron in Guizhou. In this paper, the did analysis method is brought into the study of Guizhou high-speed iron economy, which starts with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. It is the supplement and perfection to the economic theory research of Guizhou high-speed railway. The analysis from single variable to multivariable avoids the one-sidedness of single looking problem and ensures the objectivity and preciseness of the research. It provides the direction and reference for the construction of the economic effect of high-speed railway in Guizhou in the future.
【學位授予單位】:貴州師范大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:F532.8
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