本文選題：拖輪船隊(duì) + 指數(shù)平滑　； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展,港口行業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出蓬勃發(fā)展的良好局面,戰(zhàn)略地位的不斷提高使得港口發(fā)展與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系日益緊密。位于珠三角的深圳港,隨著新港區(qū)的不斷發(fā)展與壯大,航道的修繕與挖深,到港船舶的數(shù)量會(huì)不斷增加,而且越來越明顯的船舶大型化也會(huì)使港口配套設(shè)施的要求不斷提高,比如拖輪。只有港口的拖輪數(shù)量合理并具有前瞻性,減少拖輪購置和營運(yùn)的成本,保證船舶進(jìn)出港靠離碼頭的安全,才能使港口生產(chǎn)效率及拖輪船隊(duì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益得到共同的發(fā)展。 論文首先在對深圳港概況介紹的基礎(chǔ)上,對港口現(xiàn)有拖輪狀況進(jìn)行了分析,包括拖輪的投資效益情況和利用率情況,并對未來拖輪市場發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行了預(yù)測與展望。然后結(jié)合指數(shù)平滑預(yù)測方法,對部分港口生產(chǎn)要素進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,比如港口吞吐量和船舶到港艘次數(shù),這兩個(gè)要素不僅是港口本身生產(chǎn)作業(yè)考核的重要指標(biāo),也是研究拖輪船隊(duì)需求的必要參考標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。關(guān)于拖輪船隊(duì)的配置,從港口生產(chǎn)要素方面分析,可以分別按照港口吞吐量和船舶到港艘次數(shù),單要素的分析未來拖輪船隊(duì)所需的馬力數(shù)；從拖輪公司營運(yùn)方面分析,我們應(yīng)用了模糊優(yōu)選模型,選取了四項(xiàng)指標(biāo)并通過計(jì)算給出了主流馬力拖輪的最優(yōu)排序。最后在兩方面綜合分析的基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合專家經(jīng)驗(yàn),確定2012年拖輪船隊(duì)的結(jié)構(gòu)配置。本文期望能通過相關(guān)分析,為港口科學(xué)合理地配置港作拖輪、減少配置港作拖輪中的盲目性提出較為嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)挠?jì)算方法,使港作拖輪船隊(duì)的配置規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)日趨科學(xué)、合理,從而滿足港口生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營及未來發(fā)展的需要。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy, the port industry has shown a good situation of vigorous development. With the continuous improvement of strategic position, the port development and the national economy are increasingly closely linked. With the continuous development and expansion of the new port area, the number of ships coming to the port will continue to increase with the continuous development and expansion of the new port area in the Pearl River Delta. Like tugs. Only if the number of tugs in the port is reasonable and forward-looking, the cost of purchasing and operating tugs can be reduced, and the safety of ship entering and leaving wharf can be ensured, the port production efficiency and the economic benefit of tugboat fleet will be developed together. Firstly, on the basis of the introduction of Shenzhen Port, the paper analyzes the status of the existing tugs in the port, including the investment efficiency and utilization ratio of the tugs, and forecasts the development trend of the tug market in the future. Then combined with the exponential smoothing forecasting method, this paper forecasts some port production factors, such as port throughput and the number of ships coming to port. These two factors are not only the important indicators of the port itself production operation assessment. It is also the necessary reference standard to study the demand of tugboat fleet. With regard to the configuration of the tugboat fleet, from the point of view of the factors of port production, it is possible to analyse the horsepower required for the future tugboat fleet according to the port throughput and the number of ships arriving at the port, respectively; and from the point of view of the operation of the tugboat company, The fuzzy optimal selection model is applied, four indexes are selected and the optimal ranking of mainstream horsepower tugs is given by calculation. Finally, the configuration of the tugboat fleet in 2012 is determined on the basis of the two aspects of comprehensive analysis combined with the experience of experts. This paper hopes to put forward a more rigorous calculation method for the scientific and reasonable configuration of the port as tugboat and to reduce the blindness in the allocation of the tugboat, so as to make the configuration scale and structure of the port tug fleet more scientific and reasonable. In order to meet the port production and future development needs.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F552

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉心報(bào);關(guān)于指數(shù)平滑預(yù)測法精度的探討[J];安徽工學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);1994年03期

2 潘永良;;港口作業(yè)船舶節(jié)能降耗的實(shí)踐與效果[J];船舶節(jié)能;1996年03期

3 陳沈陽,邵哲平,方祥麟,邵長豐;港口航道交通流仿真模型的研究[J];大連海事大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2001年01期

4 張德南,張心艷;指數(shù)平滑預(yù)測法中平滑系數(shù)的確定[J];大連鐵道學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2004年01期

5 張蔚虹;劉立;;指數(shù)平滑法在銷售預(yù)算中的應(yīng)用[J];中國管理信息化;2008年02期

6 張炳漢;強(qiáng)內(nèi)強(qiáng)外 實(shí)現(xiàn)深圳港大港變強(qiáng)港的歷史性跨越[J];中國港口;2005年07期

7 杜麒棟;劉同新;馬勇智;;再接再厲把深圳港建設(shè)成名副其實(shí)的國際化港口——訪深圳市交通局(港務(wù)管理局)副局長 馬勇智[J];中國港口;2006年06期

8 馮金巧;楊兆升;張林;董升;;一種自適應(yīng)指數(shù)平滑動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測模型[J];吉林大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(工學(xué)版);2007年06期

9 秦大建;李志蜀;;基于神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的時(shí)間序列組合預(yù)測模型研究及應(yīng)用[J];計(jì)算機(jī)應(yīng)用;2006年S1期

10 于寧莉;易東云;涂先勤;;時(shí)間序列中自相關(guān)與偏相關(guān)函數(shù)分析[J];數(shù)學(xué)理論與應(yīng)用;2007年01期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 付勝謙;港作拖輪節(jié)能綜合研究[D];大連海事大學(xué);2011年

2 熊軍魁;港口拖輪優(yōu)化配置研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2002年

3 陸海波;寧波港拖輪船隊(duì)優(yōu)化配置研究[D];上海海事大學(xué);2007年

，

本文編號(hào)：2065912