本文選題：地鐵 + 客流預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《沈陽(yáng)建筑大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：沈陽(yáng)市公共交通的發(fā)展嚴(yán)重已經(jīng)制約了城市社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。為推動(dòng)城市交通的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,沈陽(yáng)市規(guī)劃了由11條線路組成,全長(zhǎng)400公里的快速軌道交通網(wǎng),其中地鐵二號(hào)線是沈陽(yáng)市快速軌道交通網(wǎng)規(guī)劃線路中南北方向最重要的一條線路。 修建地鐵不僅耗資巨大,而且在運(yùn)營(yíng)階段,政府同樣需要付出大量的社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)成本來(lái)維持地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)。地鐵作為公共建設(shè)產(chǎn)品,地鐵建成運(yùn)營(yíng)后帶來(lái)的一系列社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益必須要和地鐵的建設(shè)運(yùn)營(yíng)成本相匹配,因此有必要對(duì)二號(hào)線投入運(yùn)營(yíng)后的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益作全方位的深入預(yù)測(cè)分析。 本文采用了“四階段法”對(duì)沈陽(yáng)地鐵二號(hào)線的客流進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。首先預(yù)測(cè)分析了地鐵二號(hào)線建設(shè)后對(duì)沿線的土地開發(fā)、城市建設(shè)及人口分布產(chǎn)生的影響,對(duì)地鐵二號(hào)線運(yùn)營(yíng)初期、近期和遠(yuǎn)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口、就業(yè)、用地等情況進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行了出行產(chǎn)生預(yù)測(cè)；根據(jù)現(xiàn)狀居民出行調(diào)查結(jié)果,建立了居民出行分布模型,并預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)居民全方式出行OD表；然后標(biāo)定交通方式劃分模型,進(jìn)行方式劃分,獲得公交類(常規(guī)公交+軌道交通)、自行車、步行、小汽車等各種交通方式的OD；最后將公交類OD在公交網(wǎng)上分配,得到地鐵二號(hào)線的客流預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)。 在客流預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對(duì)地鐵票價(jià)水平、沿線土地利用規(guī)劃實(shí)現(xiàn)程度、人口規(guī)模、公交接駁、國(guó)家宏觀政策等影響客流的因素分布進(jìn)行了敏感性分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上,分析了地鐵二號(hào)線各目標(biāo)年地鐵票價(jià)收益以及收益最大化的票價(jià)定價(jià)策略。 利用城市軌道交通成本構(gòu)成理論,分析預(yù)測(cè)了運(yùn)營(yíng)初期地鐵二號(hào)線運(yùn)營(yíng)固定成本和變動(dòng)成本,并對(duì)成本和收益進(jìn)行了比較分析,得出地鐵二號(hào)線運(yùn)營(yíng)初期的利潤(rùn)值和盈虧平衡點(diǎn)。 對(duì)目前地鐵運(yùn)營(yíng)建設(shè)部門提高收益和政府部門對(duì)地鐵政策扶持提出了建設(shè)性的意見和建議。
[Abstract]:The development of public transportation in Shenyang has seriously restricted the sustainable development of urban society and economy. In order to promote the sustainable development of urban transportation, Shenyang has planned a rapid rail transit network consisting of 11 lines and a total length of 400 km. Subway Line 2 is one of the most important lines in the planning of Shenyang rapid rail transit network. The construction of subway is not only expensive, but also the government has to pay a lot of social and economic costs to maintain the subway operation. As a public construction product, a series of social and economic benefits brought about by the construction and operation of the subway must be matched with the construction and operation cost of the subway. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the economic benefits of line 2 in all directions. In this paper, the four-stage method is used to forecast the passenger flow of Shenyang Metro Line 2. First of all, it predicts and analyzes the impact of the construction of Metro Line 2 on the land development, urban construction and population distribution along the line, and on the early, short-term and long-term economic, population, and employment of Metro Line 2. Based on the analysis of land use and other conditions, the trip generation is predicted. According to the survey results of current residents, the model of resident travel distribution is established, and the OD table of future residents' all-mode travel is predicted. Then demarcate the traffic mode partition model, carry on the way division, obtain the ODs of the public transportation (conventional public transit rail transit, bicycle, walking, car, etc.); finally, allocate the OD class of the public transport in the public transportation network. Get the passenger flow forecast data of Metro Line 2. On the basis of passenger flow prediction, this paper makes a sensitivity analysis on the distribution of factors influencing the passenger flow, such as the subway fare level, the realization degree of land use planning along the line, the population scale, the bus connection, the national macro policy, and so on. This paper analyzes the target year of subway fare revenue and the pricing strategy of maximization of profit. Based on the theory of urban rail transit cost composition, this paper analyzes and forecasts the fixed and variable costs of subway line 2 in the early stage of operation, and makes a comparative analysis of the costs and benefits. The profit value and breakeven point of subway line 2 are obtained. Some constructive suggestions and suggestions are put forward for the subway operation and construction department to improve the profit and the government department to support the subway policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)建筑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：U231;F572

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