本文選題：高鐵走出去　切入點：風(fēng)險管理　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著經(jīng)濟全球化的不斷深入發(fā)展,實施"走出去"戰(zhàn)略并參與國際資源重新配置已成為各國振興經(jīng)濟的一大重要舉措,也是各國發(fā)展的必然趨勢。在此經(jīng)濟背景下,我國高速鐵路經(jīng)過引進、吸收、創(chuàng)新、再創(chuàng)造的過程,以震驚世界的速度躋身世界高鐵強國行列。自2009年我國提出高速鐵路"走出去"發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略之后,國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人曾多次在海外宣傳及推介我國的高速鐵路,"中國高鐵"已然成為我國響亮的"國家名片",大力發(fā)展高鐵,實施高鐵"走出去"更是成為了我國的國家戰(zhàn)略。但是近年來,我國高速鐵路"走出去"的道路并不順利,多個項目由于多種風(fēng)險因素以失敗告終,我國政府及相關(guān)高鐵企業(yè)遭受了重大損失,因此,風(fēng)險管理研究將是我國高速鐵路"走出去"戰(zhàn)略實施過程中的第一要務(wù)�；诖�,本文以完整的風(fēng)險管理研究體系為框架,以"走出去"理論、對外投資理論及風(fēng)險管理理論為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合高鐵"走出去"重點案例及文獻綜述并通過焦點人群法及問卷調(diào)查法篩選風(fēng)險指標(biāo),然后采用因子分析法建立起我國高速鐵路"走出去"的風(fēng)險因素評價體系。接著本文以"莫斯科-喀山"項目為案例采用基于AHP的模糊綜合評價法進行實證分析,繼而提出我國高速鐵路"走出去"的風(fēng)險控制思路及對策分析。本文的研究結(jié)論如下:(1)從2005年我國中標(biāo)安伊高鐵至今,我國高速鐵路"走出去"的項目已有9個左右(本文以至少中標(biāo)項目或簽署合作協(xié)議為時間節(jié)點的公開信息為準(zhǔn)),其中只有1條建成通車、1條簽署合作協(xié)議、1條處在勘查設(shè)計階段、1條開工建設(shè)、1條預(yù)計明年完工但已形成巨虧局面、4條以失敗告終,可以說目前我國高鐵"走出去"成功率為11.11%,而失敗率高達55.56%,究其原因無不是因為前期對風(fēng)險管理研究不深而造成,因此,進行嚴(yán)密的風(fēng)險管理研究是極其重要的。(2)我國高速鐵路不同于其它產(chǎn)業(yè),在其"走出去"過程中有其特殊的風(fēng)險因素,最主要的因素如下:一是受國家政策影響較大;二是高速鐵路投資金額大且投資期限長,將面臨諸多潛在性風(fēng)險;三是高鐵"走出去"是一個系統(tǒng)性工程,涉及到母國及東道國包括政府在內(nèi)的多方機構(gòu)及公司,涉及到諸多產(chǎn)業(yè)等關(guān)聯(lián)資源,因此風(fēng)險因素龐雜。(3)利用基于AHP的模糊綜合評價法對"莫斯科-喀山"高鐵進行實證分析后發(fā)現(xiàn),政治風(fēng)險在所有風(fēng)險中排名最高,超出第二名0.11,利用該方法對其他兩個項目進行分析同樣得到這個結(jié)論,因此對政治風(fēng)險應(yīng)予以絕對高度重視,同時財務(wù)風(fēng)險、管理風(fēng)險、經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險得分同樣很高,應(yīng)予以足夠重視。(4)經(jīng)過案例分析及實證研究可以發(fā)現(xiàn),雖然政治因素在我國高速鐵路"走出去"過程中的風(fēng)險程度最大,但幾乎每個項目都有其不同的風(fēng)險表現(xiàn),阻礙項目進程甚至導(dǎo)致項目虧損或失敗,因此在對該項目進行前期風(fēng)險管理研究時,在保證重點風(fēng)險重點防范的同時,一定要最為全面地對風(fēng)險因素進行分析,防患于未然,只有這樣,我國才能最大可能性地避免國家資源浪費。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of economic globalization, the implementation of the strategy of "going out" and participate in international reallocation of resources has become an important measure of national revitalization of the economy, is the inevitable trend of the development of all countries. In this economic context, China's high-speed railway through the introduction, absorption, innovation, the process of re creation, to shocked the world ranks among the world's high speed rail power. Since 2009, China has proposed high-speed railway development strategy of "going out", state leaders have repeatedly in overseas publicity and promotion of China's high-speed railway, "Chinese high iron" has become a "national name card" in our country, developing high-speed, high iron "going out" has become a national strategy in China. But in recent years, China's high-speed railway "going out" the road is not smooth, a number of projects due to various risk factors in failure, our government and relevant high iron Companies suffered a major loss, therefore, the research on risk management of high-speed railway will be the first priority of "going out" strategy in China in the process of implementation. Based on this, this paper research on the risk management of the complete system framework, in order to "go out" theory, foreign investment theory and risk management theory, combined with high speed "go out and focus on literature review case and through focus group and questionnaire survey were risk indicators, and then using the factor analysis method to establish the evaluation system of high speed railway in China" risk factors going out. Then the paper takes "the Moscow Kazan project as a case by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for empirical analysis based on AHP and then put forward the ideas and Countermeasures of risk control of high-speed railway in China" go out ". The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) from the 2005 China's bid to the Anyi high-speed rail, high-speed railway in China" go out " The project has 9 or so (taking at least the winning project or signed a cooperation agreement for public information time shall prevail), of which only 1 completed, 1 signed a cooperation agreement, the 1 in the survey design stage, 1 under construction, 1 is expected to be completed next year but have formed a huge loss situation, to 4 failed, it can be said that the current high-speed rail in China "go out" the success rate was 11.11%, and the failure rate is as high as 55.56%, the reason is because the early stage of risk management research is not deep and caused, therefore, the risk management of tight is extremely important. (2) high speed railway in China in other industries, has its special risk factors in the "going out" process, the main factors are as follows: one is influenced by national policies; two high-speed railway is a large amount of investment and long investment period, will face many potential risks; three is the high-speed rail going out" Is a systematic project, many agencies involved in home and host countries including the government and companies involved in many industries and other related resources, so the complex risk factors. (3) the use of AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of the "Moscow Kazan" high iron empirical analysis found that based on the highest political risk ranking at all risks, more than second 0.11, the other two projects were analyzed also came to this conclusion by using this method, so the political risks should be absolutely also attaches great importance to the financial risk, management risk, economic risk score is very high, we should pay enough attention to. (4) through the analysis and empirical study can be found, although the risk degree of political factors in the high speed railway in China "go out" in the process of the biggest, but almost every project has its different risk, hinder the project process and even lead to loss in the project Or failure. Therefore, in the early stage risk management research of the project, we must analyze the risk factors and prevent them at the same time, so that we can avoid the waste of national resources to the greatest extent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F532.6;F125

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