鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)基礎(chǔ)理論與方法研究
本文選題:鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目 切入點(diǎn):后評價(jià) 出處:《西南交通大學(xué)》2014年博士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文
【摘要】:鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)因鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)型基礎(chǔ)產(chǎn)業(yè)特性和運(yùn)營技術(shù)系統(tǒng)復(fù)雜性而在評價(jià)基礎(chǔ)理論、內(nèi)容與方法上有別于一般建設(shè)項(xiàng)目,在我國鐵路持續(xù)大規(guī)模建設(shè)、路網(wǎng)質(zhì)量不斷提升、供需關(guān)系逐步改善的背景下,進(jìn)行鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)基礎(chǔ)理論與方法研究,對于完善鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)內(nèi)容,增強(qiáng)規(guī)劃決策科學(xué)性,提高鐵路運(yùn)營管理服務(wù)水平有著重要的作用。本文針對鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目后評價(jià)研究與實(shí)踐存在的主要問題,以鐵路產(chǎn)業(yè)理論、外部性理論、運(yùn)輸需求與供給理論、復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論為起點(diǎn),研究鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目分類后評價(jià)、經(jīng)濟(jì)費(fèi)用效益后評價(jià)、運(yùn)營后評價(jià)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)影響后評價(jià)的理論與方法。綜述鐵路產(chǎn)業(yè)特性的研究成果,分析鐵路公益性可計(jì)量外溢效益的構(gòu)成,提出以公益性系數(shù)定量測算為主要依據(jù)的公益性鐵路判定方法。按公益性、投融資和運(yùn)營管理主體、在路網(wǎng)中的地位和作用、業(yè)務(wù)和技術(shù)屬性等對鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行分類,并分析了鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目分類后評價(jià)內(nèi)容與方法的差異性;谶\(yùn)輸外部性理論研究,以實(shí)施者為界將鐵路外部性劃分為利用者外部性、網(wǎng)絡(luò)外部性、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)外部性、自然環(huán)境外部性等不同層次,以此界定鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的內(nèi)部效益即供給者效益,外部效益分為利用者效益、網(wǎng)絡(luò)效益、社會性效益和環(huán)境改善效益,給出了經(jīng)濟(jì)費(fèi)用效益測算方法。特別針對鐵路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的特點(diǎn),建立了新建鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)效益計(jì)算的非線性整數(shù)規(guī)劃模型,設(shè)計(jì)了基于節(jié)點(diǎn)重要度層次的動態(tài)K短路優(yōu)化算法,并給出實(shí)例測算。以運(yùn)輸需求與供給理論的系統(tǒng)分析為基礎(chǔ),建立需求視角下包括運(yùn)量預(yù)測后評價(jià)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施服務(wù)水平后評價(jià)、運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)品服務(wù)水平后評價(jià)和運(yùn)輸組織服務(wù)水平后評價(jià)的運(yùn)營后評價(jià)內(nèi)容體系。提出了運(yùn)量預(yù)測數(shù)據(jù)精度分層后評價(jià)方法和預(yù)測失準(zhǔn)問題的對策。建立服從于需求質(zhì)量要求的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、運(yùn)輸產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)、運(yùn)輸組織三層次運(yùn)營服務(wù)水平后評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和指標(biāo)量化方法,以某客運(yùn)專線為例實(shí)證分析,后評價(jià)結(jié)論能夠準(zhǔn)確反映其運(yùn)營服務(wù)水平。運(yùn)營服務(wù)水平評價(jià)的核心指標(biāo)—可靠性主要受列車運(yùn)行圖冗余時(shí)間布局的影響,建立列車運(yùn)行圖冗余時(shí)間分階段布局優(yōu)化模型,選用遺傳算法和動態(tài)規(guī)劃算法分步求解。以廣深城際鐵路為例進(jìn)行列車運(yùn)行圖冗余時(shí)間仿真分析,得出冗余時(shí)間設(shè)置總量、縱向和橫向冗余時(shí)間分配方法、列車停站方案對冗余時(shí)間設(shè)置影響等主要結(jié)論,為提高列車運(yùn)行圖穩(wěn)定性提供參考。綜述復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論的研究成果,分析新建線路網(wǎng)絡(luò)影響的產(chǎn)生層次和生成機(jī)制。從網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)性能和服務(wù)水平兩方面建立包括集聚系數(shù)、點(diǎn)介數(shù)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)效率、連通可靠性、路網(wǎng)密度、網(wǎng)絡(luò)飽和度、運(yùn)量效益和時(shí)間效益的網(wǎng)絡(luò)影響后評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,并構(gòu)建了基于模糊物元理論的后評價(jià)模型。實(shí)例分析結(jié)果證明,后評價(jià)結(jié)論符合鐵路網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)成特點(diǎn)和不同線路對網(wǎng)絡(luò)影響的差異性,并能為規(guī)劃決策提供有效的支持。
[Abstract]:Post evaluation of railway construction project because of complexity of the railway network infrastructure industry characteristics and operation system in the evaluation of the basic theory, is different from the general construction project content and methods, in China's railway network continued large-scale construction, improve the quality of the relationship between supply and demand gradually improved under the background of basic Research on the theory and method of evaluation of railway after the construction project for the improvement of the railway construction project post evaluation content, and enhance the scientific planning decision-making, plays an important role in improving the railway operation management service level. Main problems existing in the research and practice of price evaluation according to the railway construction project, according to the theory of railway industry, externality theory, transportation demand and supply theory, complex network the theory as a starting point, research on railway construction project post evaluation classification, cost efficiency evaluation, theory and operation evaluation and impact assessment of the network Review of the research method. The railway industry characteristics, analysis of public benefit railway can form measurement, proposed to the public as the main basis of the quantitative calculation of the coefficient of public railway determination method. According to the public welfare, financing and operation management subject, status and role in the road network, business and technical attributes such as classification the railway construction project, and analyzes the difference of the railway construction project post evaluation content and method of classification. Based on externality theory research to implementation for transport, railway sector will be divided into the external network externality, externality, social economic externalities, natural environmental externalities at different levels, in order to define the railway construction project internal benefit is supply benefits, external benefit is divided into the benefit, network benefit, social benefit and environmental benefit to improve efficiency, gives the method of economic cost. The pin of the railway construction project, we establish a nonlinear integer programming model to calculate the benefit of new railway network, the design of dynamic K circuit level optimization algorithm based on the node importance degree, and give an example to measure system. The transportation demand and supply theory analysis as the basis, establish the demand from the perspective of post evaluation including traffic forecasting, infrastructure service level evaluation, service level of the service level of transportation products evaluation and post evaluation of transportation organization operation evaluation content system. And puts forward some countermeasures for misalignment evaluation and prediction accuracy of stratified volume forecasting. To set up infrastructure to demand the quality requirements, the transportation of products and services, index system and quantitative method level three level service transport organization evaluation, to a passenger line as an example, after the conclusion of the evaluation can accurately reflect the operation The level of service. The core index - Evaluation of the reliability of operation and service level is mainly affected by the time redundancy of train diagram layout, establish the train diagram redundant time phased layout optimization model, using genetic algorithm and dynamic programming algorithm to solve. Step by step to the Guangzhou Shenzhen intercity railway for train diagram redundant time simulation analysis, we can conclude that the set of the total redundant time, vertical and horizontal redundancy time allocation method, the train stops influence on redundant time setting of the main conclusions, and provide reference for improving the stability of the train diagram is summarized. The complex network theory, and the hierarchical analysis on the formation mechanism of network effects. A new line from the two aspects of the network structure performance and service level including the clustering coefficient, betweenness, network efficiency, reliability, network density, network saturation, volume efficiency and time efficiency The network influences post evaluation index system, and builds a post evaluation model based on fuzzy matter element theory. The result of case analysis proves that the post evaluation conclusion is in line with the characteristics of railway network and the difference between different lines on the network, and it can provide effective support for planning decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號】:F532.3
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