本文選題：中國(guó)概念股 + N股　； 參考：《上海交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)概念股，是指資產(chǎn)或營(yíng)收的主體在中國(guó)大陸地區(qū)，而在中國(guó)大陸以外的證券交易所上市交易的股票。而在美國(guó)上市交易的股票（N股）包括了國(guó)內(nèi)新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的眾多龍頭企業(yè)。N股由于遵循的會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則不同，且所處的交易大市環(huán)境不同，因而估值方法較A股有一定差別。在目前公開(kāi)的文獻(xiàn)中，討論A股估值方法較常見(jiàn)，但討論N股的較少。本文將提出N股估值的方法框架，并通過(guò)理論分析和歷史數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證研究，討論Fama-French三因素資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型及中國(guó)因素對(duì)于N股回報(bào)率的解釋作用，確定估計(jì)折現(xiàn)因子的模型。最終通過(guò)估值案例進(jìn)行更具體的討論。本文旨在給投資N股的投資者提供參考，并為研究中國(guó)內(nèi)地新興產(chǎn)業(yè)的行業(yè)研究人員提供參考。 第1章提出問(wèn)題并對(duì)相對(duì)研究進(jìn)行綜述。第2章提出N股估值的方法框架，討論估計(jì)資本成本的方法，并提出預(yù)測(cè)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的方法。第3章統(tǒng)計(jì)了N股在公司規(guī)模分布上的特點(diǎn)，并基于經(jīng)典資本資產(chǎn)定價(jià)模型(CAPM)和Fama-French三因素模型對(duì)股權(quán)資本成本進(jìn)行估計(jì)，同時(shí)加入中國(guó)概念的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)對(duì)股權(quán)資本成本進(jìn)行估計(jì)，并且通過(guò)實(shí)證數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析證實(shí)中國(guó)概念的國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)對(duì)解釋N股的回報(bào)率有顯著作用。第4章選出N股上市公司歡聚時(shí)代(NASDAQ:YY)作為案例，按業(yè)務(wù)板塊分析公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，預(yù)測(cè)公司各業(yè)務(wù)板塊的成長(zhǎng)性,預(yù)測(cè)毛利率與研發(fā)、銷售、市場(chǎng)等經(jīng)營(yíng)費(fèi)用，得出預(yù)測(cè)的自由現(xiàn)金流。估計(jì)公司的資本成本，最終確定自由現(xiàn)金流的折現(xiàn)因子。第5章進(jìn)行全文回顧，，提出建議與展望。
[Abstract]:Chinese stocks are those whose assets or revenues are listed on the mainland and traded on stock exchanges outside the Chinese mainland. The stocks traded in the United States include a large number of leading enterprises in emerging industries in China. Because of the different accounting standards and the different trading environment, the valuation methods are different from those of A shares. In the current open literature, A-share valuation methods are more common, but the discussion of N-shares is less. In this paper, we put forward the framework of the valuation method of N shares, and through theoretical analysis and empirical study of historical data, we discuss the three-factor asset pricing model of Fama-French and the explanatory effect of Chinese factors on the rate of return of N shares, and determine the model of estimating the discount factor. Finally, a more specific discussion is carried out through the valuation case. The purpose of this paper is to provide a reference for investors investing in N shares and for industry researchers studying emerging industries in mainland China. Chapter 1 puts forward the questions and summarizes the relative research. In chapter 2, the method frame of N-share valuation is proposed, the method of estimating capital cost is discussed, and the method of predicting financial index is put forward. In chapter 3, the characteristics of N shares in company size distribution are analyzed, and the cost of equity capital is estimated based on classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and Fama-French model. At the same time, the risk premium of China is added to estimate the cost of equity capital, and through the statistical analysis of empirical data, it is proved that the national risk premium of the concept of China plays a significant role in explaining the rate of return of N shares. Chapter 4 selects NASDAQ: YYYY) as a case study to analyze the competitive advantage of the company according to the business sector, to predict the growth of the various business sectors of the company, and to predict the gross profit margin and the operating expenses of R & D, sales, market, etc. Get the free cash flow forecast. Estimate the cost of capital of the company, and finally determine the discounted factor of free cash flow. Chapter 5 reviews the full text and puts forward suggestions and prospects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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