本文選題：中國概念股 + N股��； 參考：《上海交通大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國概念股，是指資產或營收的主體在中國大陸地區(qū)，而在中國大陸以外的證券交易所上市交易的股票。而在美國上市交易的股票（N股）包括了國內新興產業(yè)的眾多龍頭企業(yè)。N股由于遵循的會計準則不同，且所處的交易大市環(huán)境不同，因而估值方法較A股有一定差別。在目前公開的文獻中，討論A股估值方法較常見，但討論N股的較少。本文將提出N股估值的方法框架，并通過理論分析和歷史數(shù)據(jù)的實證研究，討論Fama-French三因素資產定價模型及中國因素對于N股回報率的解釋作用，確定估計折現(xiàn)因子的模型。最終通過估值案例進行更具體的討論。本文旨在給投資N股的投資者提供參考，并為研究中國內地新興產業(yè)的行業(yè)研究人員提供參考。 第1章提出問題并對相對研究進行綜述。第2章提出N股估值的方法框架，討論估計資本成本的方法，并提出預測財務指標的方法。第3章統(tǒng)計了N股在公司規(guī)模分布上的特點，并基于經典資本資產定價模型(CAPM)和Fama-French三因素模型對股權資本成本進行估計，同時加入中國概念的風險溢價對股權資本成本進行估計，并且通過實證數(shù)據(jù)的統(tǒng)計分析證實中國概念的國家風險溢價對解釋N股的回報率有顯著作用。第4章選出N股上市公司歡聚時代(NASDAQ:YY)作為案例，按業(yè)務板塊分析公司的競爭優(yōu)勢，預測公司各業(yè)務板塊的成長性,預測毛利率與研發(fā)、銷售、市場等經營費用，得出預測的自由現(xiàn)金流。估計公司的資本成本，最終確定自由現(xiàn)金流的折現(xiàn)因子。第5章進行全文回顧，，提出建議與展望。
[Abstract]:Chinese stocks are those whose assets or revenues are listed on the mainland and traded on stock exchanges outside the Chinese mainland. The stocks traded in the United States include a large number of leading enterprises in emerging industries in China. Because of the different accounting standards and the different trading environment, the valuation methods are different from those of A shares. In the current open literature, A-share valuation methods are more common, but the discussion of N-shares is less. In this paper, we put forward the framework of the valuation method of N shares, and through theoretical analysis and empirical study of historical data, we discuss the three-factor asset pricing model of Fama-French and the explanatory effect of Chinese factors on the rate of return of N shares, and determine the model of estimating the discount factor. Finally, a more specific discussion is carried out through the valuation case. The purpose of this paper is to provide a reference for investors investing in N shares and for industry researchers studying emerging industries in mainland China. Chapter 1 puts forward the questions and summarizes the relative research. In chapter 2, the method frame of N-share valuation is proposed, the method of estimating capital cost is discussed, and the method of predicting financial index is put forward. In chapter 3, the characteristics of N shares in company size distribution are analyzed, and the cost of equity capital is estimated based on classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and Fama-French model. At the same time, the risk premium of China is added to estimate the cost of equity capital, and through the statistical analysis of empirical data, it is proved that the national risk premium of the concept of China plays a significant role in explaining the rate of return of N shares. Chapter 4 selects NASDAQ: YYYY) as a case study to analyze the competitive advantage of the company according to the business sector, to predict the growth of the various business sectors of the company, and to predict the gross profit margin and the operating expenses of R & D, sales, market, etc. Get the free cash flow forecast. Estimate the cost of capital of the company, and finally determine the discounted factor of free cash flow. Chapter 5 reviews the full text and puts forward suggestions and prospects.
【學位授予單位】：上海交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F275

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