本文選題：金融危機(jī)　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣中性　出處：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國證券市場是在改革發(fā)展的中國特色社會(huì)主義市場經(jīng)濟(jì)中誕生，其功能定位、市場參與者、資金容量及其影響力正隨著強(qiáng)大的我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)日益增強(qiáng)，證券作為資本市場的中心市場，其市場地位日益提高，發(fā)展前景日新月異，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響也異常重要。由網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技創(chuàng)新引領(lǐng)的21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)，貨幣政策受到了來自資本市場的新挑戰(zhàn)。沉寂5年的證券市場，隨著2006年股權(quán)分置改革的推動(dòng)，證券市場作為經(jīng)濟(jì)“晴雨表”的作用日趨顯著。證券市場的財(cái)富效應(yīng)也吸引的大量的專家學(xué)者進(jìn)行研究。在由計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)向市場經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變過程中，我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)控已經(jīng)完全由貨幣政策與財(cái)政政策主導(dǎo)了。貨幣量的變化直接影響著利率，影響著資本的市場價(jià)格。2008年，世界性的金融危機(jī)給世界金融體系沉重打擊，從一定程度上改變了原有的貨幣政策對(duì)證券市場的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，四萬億投資的滯后效應(yīng)嚴(yán)重削弱了貨幣政策的有效性，致使證券市場沒有反映我國經(jīng)濟(jì)在金融危機(jī)后的欣欣向榮。在金融市場大步向前的時(shí)代，我國的債券市場也緩慢發(fā)展著，基金市場也雨后春筍般繁榮。告別了過去股票、權(quán)證的時(shí)代。完善的指數(shù)體系也已成規(guī)模。作為證券市場的子市場，有必要去研究貨幣政策對(duì)基金或者債券市場的影響，為投資者提供一定的參考。 本文立足于國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀，繼續(xù)前人的研究步伐，強(qiáng)調(diào)貨幣供應(yīng)量與利率作為貨幣政策的代理變量，突出研究他們對(duì)證券中的基金、債券、股票市場。我國的債券市場相對(duì)狹小，幾乎每一次重要的危機(jī)都推動(dòng)了金融顛覆性的跨越，首先回顧了上世紀(jì)重大的金融危機(jī)事件以及其造成的影響，，并總結(jié)了貨幣在危機(jī)中的作用。在理論分析中，探討了可供調(diào)控的貨幣政策指標(biāo)，針對(duì)貨幣中性理論進(jìn)行探討，研究貨幣當(dāng)局的貨幣政策對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量的決定性。隨后對(duì)金融危機(jī)后，我國貨幣政策的實(shí)施狀況做了簡易分析，并重點(diǎn)研究了中國特色市場經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下貨幣政策對(duì)股市的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制，對(duì)各項(xiàng)貨幣對(duì)證券市場的影響做了分別的分析。 在實(shí)證方面，利用金融危機(jī)后的月度數(shù)據(jù)，對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了一般性分析，并對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了基本的處理，以達(dá)到消除異方差、多重共線性等，通過相關(guān)性分析得出變量間的相關(guān)密切程度。選用的時(shí)間序列模型經(jīng)過單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整分析，克服了傳統(tǒng)多元回歸模型的“偽回歸”問題，并利用VEC模型進(jìn)行分析。研究結(jié)果在一定程度上也得到了與前人相似的結(jié)論。貨幣量與利率對(duì)股票市場的影響是顯著的，而基金市場和債券市場影響并不顯著。并根據(jù)當(dāng)前金融形勢，提出了幾點(diǎn)建議。
[Abstract]:China's securities market is born in the reform and development of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics. Its function, market participants, capital capacity and its influence are increasing with the development of our strong economy. As the central market of the capital market, the securities market position is increasing day by day, the development prospect is changing with each passing day, the influence on the economy is also extremely important. Monetary policy is facing new challenges from capital markets. The securities market, which has been quiet for five years, was pushed forward by the 2006 split share structure reform. The role of securities market as an economic "barometer" is becoming more and more obvious. The wealth effect of securities market also attracts a lot of experts and scholars to study. In the process of transition from planned economy to market economy, China's macroeconomic regulation and control has been completely dominated by monetary and fiscal policies. The change in monetary volume directly affects interest rates and the market prices of capital. In 2008, the world financial crisis dealt a heavy blow to the world financial system. To some extent, the transmission mechanism of the original monetary policy to the securities market has been changed, and the lagging effect of 4 trillion investment has seriously weakened the effectiveness of the monetary policy. As a result, the securities market did not reflect the prosperity of China's economy after the financial crisis. In the era of great strides forward in the financial market, the bond market in our country has also developed slowly, and the fund market has mushroomed. Farewell to the stock market in the past. As a sub-market of the securities market, it is necessary to study the influence of monetary policy on the fund or bond market in order to provide a certain reference for investors. Based on the current research situation at home and abroad, this paper emphasizes the money supply and interest rate as the proxy variable of monetary policy, and focuses on their research on the funds and bonds in the securities. The stock market. The bond market in China is relatively small. Almost every major crisis has promoted a financial subversive leap forward. First of all, I look back on the major financial crisis of the last century and its impact. In the theoretical analysis, the paper discusses the monetary policy indicators available for adjustment and control, and discusses the monetary neutrality theory. This paper studies the decisive effect of monetary policy of monetary authorities on money supply, and then makes a simple analysis of the implementation of monetary policy in China after the financial crisis. It also focuses on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the stock market under the condition of market economy with Chinese characteristics, and makes a separate analysis of the influence of various currencies on the securities market. In the empirical aspect, using the monthly data after the financial crisis, this paper makes a general analysis of the data, and carries on the basic processing to the data, in order to eliminate the heteroscedasticity, the multiple collinearity and so on. Through correlation analysis, the correlation degree between variables is obtained. The selected time series model is tested by unit root and cointegration analysis, which overcomes the "pseudo regression" problem of traditional multivariate regression model. The results of the study are similar to those of the predecessors to a certain extent. The effects of money and interest rates on the stock market are significant. The influence of fund market and bond market is not significant, and according to the current financial situation, some suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.51

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