本文關(guān)鍵詞：上市公司高管過(guò)度自信對(duì)現(xiàn)金股利政策的影響　出處：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 過(guò)度自信 行為公司財(cái)務(wù) 現(xiàn)金股利分配 股權(quán)制衡 公司成長(zhǎng)性

【摘要】：我國(guó)上市公司中過(guò)度自信的高管普遍存在，，他們所做出的非理性現(xiàn)金股利決策不僅損害了投資者或者股東的利益，而且還可能阻礙公司的發(fā)展�；诖耍疚脑趯�(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行回歸和梳理的基礎(chǔ)上，摒棄了經(jīng)典財(cái)務(wù)理論中理性經(jīng)理人的假設(shè)。文章試圖利用我國(guó)滬、深兩市2010—2012年A股上市公司發(fā)布的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)，以行為財(cái)務(wù)學(xué)的相關(guān)理論為指引，實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)高管過(guò)度自信這一心理因素與公司現(xiàn)金股利分配政策之間的關(guān)系，及公司成長(zhǎng)性和股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)這兩個(gè)公司特征對(duì)上述關(guān)系產(chǎn)生的影響。 過(guò)度自信的度量尚未形成統(tǒng)一的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是制約該理論發(fā)展的一大瓶頸，本文將規(guī)范研究和實(shí)證研究相結(jié)合，在第三章首先通過(guò)演繹推理初步論證了采用公司的年度盈余預(yù)測(cè)偏差程度作為高管過(guò)度自信的連續(xù)替代變量的可行性和合理性，進(jìn)而通過(guò)構(gòu)建恰當(dāng)?shù)臄?shù)學(xué)模型理論分析了高管過(guò)度自信的心理偏好對(duì)現(xiàn)金股利決策的影響機(jī)理，在此基礎(chǔ)上提出值得深入探討的三個(gè)核心命題。第四章實(shí)證部分選用2010—2012年滬深兩市發(fā)布了盈利預(yù)測(cè)的A股上市公司為研究樣本，在控制公司系列特征變量的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)用多元回歸模型探求了我國(guó)上市公司中高管過(guò)度自信的心理偏好對(duì)現(xiàn)金股利分配行為的影響，研究結(jié)果表明：管理者過(guò)度自信的公司傾向于少發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利來(lái)增強(qiáng)內(nèi)部融資；且當(dāng)公司具有越高的成長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì)時(shí)，其降低公司現(xiàn)金股利分配水平的傾向會(huì)更加明顯，即公司的成長(zhǎng)性加強(qiáng)了公司高管過(guò)度自信對(duì)現(xiàn)金股利分配決策的影響；但制衡性的股權(quán)分布能夠在一定程度上避免因高管過(guò)度自信引起的減少發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利的非理性行為。 根據(jù)實(shí)證研究結(jié)論，文章最后針對(duì)性地提出了幫助我國(guó)上市公司克服高管過(guò)度自信所產(chǎn)生的不利影響的幾點(diǎn)建議：建立科學(xué)的高管學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)制及過(guò)度自信預(yù)警指標(biāo)；公司不同發(fā)展階段采用不同的股利監(jiān)控政策；避免“一股獨(dú)大”現(xiàn)象，采用股權(quán)制衡的結(jié)構(gòu)模式；健全和完善我國(guó)上市公司的獨(dú)立董事制度。
[Abstract]:There are overconfident executives in listed companies in our country. Their irrational cash dividend decisions not only harm the interests of investors or shareholders, but also hinder the development of the company. On the basis of regression and combing of domestic and foreign research literature, this paper abandons the hypothesis of rational manager in classical financial theory, and tries to make use of Shanghai, China. The financial data released by A-share listed companies in Shenzhen and Shenzhen in 2010-2012 are guided by the related theories of behavioral finance. This paper empirically tests the relationship between the psychological factor of executive overconfidence and corporate cash dividend distribution policy, and the influence of corporate growth and equity structure on the above relationship. The measurement of overconfidence has not yet formed a unified standard is a major bottleneck restricting the development of the theory, this paper combines normative research with empirical research. In the third chapter, through deductive reasoning, the feasibility and rationality of using the deviation degree of annual earnings forecast as a continuous substitute variable of executive overconfidence are preliminarily demonstrated. Then through the construction of appropriate mathematical model to analyze the influence mechanism of executives' overconfident psychological preference on cash dividend decision. On this basis, it puts forward three core propositions that are worthy of further discussion. The empirical part of Chapter 4th selects A-share listed companies which issued profit forecast in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2012 as the research samples. On the basis of controlling the series of characteristic variables of the company, this paper uses the multiple regression model to explore the influence of the psychological preference of the high management overconfidence on the behavior of cash dividend distribution in the listed companies of our country. The results show that overconfident managers tend to pay less cash dividends to enhance internal financing; And when the company has higher growth opportunities, its tendency to reduce the level of cash dividend distribution will be more obvious, that is, the growth of the company strengthened the corporate executives overconfidence on the impact of cash dividend distribution decisions; But balanced equity distribution can to some extent avoid the irrational behavior of reducing cash dividend due to executive overconfidence. According to the conclusions of empirical research. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions to help the listed companies overcome the adverse effects of overconfidence: establishing a scientific learning mechanism for senior executives and early warning indicators of overconfidence; The company adopts different dividend monitoring policies at different stages of development; To avoid the phenomenon of "one share dominating" and adopt the structural mode of equity balance; Improve and perfect the system of independent directors of listed companies in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F275

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