PPP模式下準經(jīng)營性基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目的風(fēng)險分擔(dān)研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-12 09:04
【摘要】：目前我國城市化的快速發(fā)展，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)步伐急需加快。政府部門在部分基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)中采用PPP(Public Private Partnerships)模式引入社會資本，可以減輕政府資金壓力，加快基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)步伐以滿足社會主義現(xiàn)代化的發(fā)展需求�；A(chǔ)設(shè)施中有一類項目是準許經(jīng)營，有少量收入，但收入又小于投資，要經(jīng)過很長的投資回收期才能慢慢回收投資的項目，我們稱這樣的項目為“準經(jīng)營性項目”，政府若采取PPP模式來建設(shè)此項目，那么這就是本文研究的對象：“PPP模式下準經(jīng)營性基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目”。 這類項目具有投資成本高、投資回收期長、回報小、參與方復(fù)雜等特點，加上在利益角度上，政府重視公益性而私營企業(yè)重視經(jīng)濟效益，此類項目的風(fēng)險往往要比一般的建設(shè)項目更多、更大、更難掌控，并且實現(xiàn)風(fēng)險合理分擔(dān)難度更大。導(dǎo)致常常出現(xiàn)兩種情況：第一種是項目風(fēng)險分擔(dān)的談判普遍耗費的時間很長，使談判成本很高；第二種是勉強談判完，之后卻不能履行談判簽訂的合同條款。這些都給項目的成功造成很大的障礙。風(fēng)險合理分擔(dān)是項目成功的保障，目前迫切需要行之有效并且具體的風(fēng)險分擔(dān)方法。 論文從14篇權(quán)威文獻中梳理了PPP模式下準經(jīng)營性基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目的常見風(fēng)險共40個。然后用專家打分法對這些風(fēng)險的發(fā)生概率、損害程度和綜合影響程度分別進行了排序，再用ABC分類法識別出了30個關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險因素、5個重要風(fēng)險因素、5個次要風(fēng)險因素。為實踐中各參與方分析眾多風(fēng)險因素的分擔(dān)問題時提供了大概的主次參考。之后運用三方完全信息靜態(tài)博弈分析得出：審批獲得/延誤、法律和監(jiān)管體系不完善等7個可以由公共部門單獨承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險，和融資風(fēng)險、建造成本超支等5個由私營機構(gòu)單獨承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險，和收益不足、市場需求變化等18個需要共同分擔(dān)的風(fēng)險。再運用層次分析法對需要共同分擔(dān)的風(fēng)險做了具體分擔(dān)比例的定量分析。最后論文以其中的“通貨膨脹風(fēng)險”為例子進行實例分析運用。整個分擔(dān)過程建立在四條分擔(dān)原則上，分別是：風(fēng)險由最有控制力的一方承擔(dān)，承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險要有上限，，承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險程度與所得回報相匹配，有承擔(dān)風(fēng)險的意愿。從分擔(dān)原則出發(fā)，構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險分擔(dān)一級指標(biāo)和二級指標(biāo)，建立了風(fēng)險分擔(dān)評價指標(biāo)體系。論文采用了完全信息靜態(tài)博弈定性分析與層次分析法定量分析相結(jié)合的方式，把分擔(dān)滿意度與分擔(dān)指標(biāo)客觀性結(jié)合起來，得出合理的分擔(dān)結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:At present, the rapid development of urbanization in China, the pace of infrastructure construction needs to be accelerated. The introduction of social capital by the PPP (Public Private Partnerships) model in some infrastructure construction of government departments can reduce the pressure on government funds and speed up the pace of infrastructure construction to meet the development needs of socialist modernization. There are projects in the infrastructure that are permitted to operate and have a small amount of income, but the income is less than the investment, and it takes a very long payback period to slowly recover the investment. We call these projects "quasi-operational projects." If the government adopts the PPP model to build this project, then this is the object of this paper: "the quasi-operational infrastructure project under the PPP mode". Such projects are characterized by high investment costs, long payback periods, small returns and complex participants. In addition, in terms of interests, the government attaches importance to public welfare while private enterprises attach importance to economic benefits. The risks of such projects tend to be more, larger, more difficult to manage than normal construction projects, and it is more difficult to achieve reasonable risk sharing. As a result, there are often two situations: the first is that the negotiation of project risk sharing generally takes a long time, which makes the negotiation very expensive, and the second is that the negotiation is reluctantly completed, but then cannot fulfill the terms of the contract signed by the negotiation. These all pose great obstacles to the success of the project. Reasonable risk sharing is the guarantee of project success, and effective and specific risk sharing methods are urgently needed. This paper combs the common risks of quasi-operational infrastructure projects under PPP model from 14 authoritative documents. Then, the occurrence probability, damage degree and comprehensive influence degree of these risks are sorted by expert scoring method, and then 30 key risk factors, 5 important risk factors and 5 secondary risk factors are identified by ABC classification. It provides a general primary and secondary reference for the participants to analyze the problem of the sharing of many risk factors in practice. Then, by using the static game analysis of three parties' complete information, this paper draws a conclusion that the seven risks that can be undertaken by the public sector alone, such as approval / delay, imperfect legal and regulatory system, and financing risks, Five private sector risks, such as construction cost overruns, and 18 risks that need to be shared, such as inadequate returns and changing market demand. Then the paper makes a quantitative analysis of the proportion of the risk that needs to be shared by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Finally, the paper takes inflation risk as an example to analyze and apply it. The whole process of sharing is based on the four principles of sharing: the risk is assumed by the most controlling party, the risk must be capped, the degree of risk should be matched with the return, and the willingness to bear the risk. Based on the principle of risk sharing, the primary and secondary indexes of risk sharing are constructed, and the evaluation index system of risk sharing is established. The paper combines the qualitative analysis of complete information static game with the quantitative analysis of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and combines the satisfaction degree of share with the objectivity of index of sharing, and obtains the reasonable result of sharing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F283;F272.3
本文編號：2238541
[Abstract]:At present, the rapid development of urbanization in China, the pace of infrastructure construction needs to be accelerated. The introduction of social capital by the PPP (Public Private Partnerships) model in some infrastructure construction of government departments can reduce the pressure on government funds and speed up the pace of infrastructure construction to meet the development needs of socialist modernization. There are projects in the infrastructure that are permitted to operate and have a small amount of income, but the income is less than the investment, and it takes a very long payback period to slowly recover the investment. We call these projects "quasi-operational projects." If the government adopts the PPP model to build this project, then this is the object of this paper: "the quasi-operational infrastructure project under the PPP mode". Such projects are characterized by high investment costs, long payback periods, small returns and complex participants. In addition, in terms of interests, the government attaches importance to public welfare while private enterprises attach importance to economic benefits. The risks of such projects tend to be more, larger, more difficult to manage than normal construction projects, and it is more difficult to achieve reasonable risk sharing. As a result, there are often two situations: the first is that the negotiation of project risk sharing generally takes a long time, which makes the negotiation very expensive, and the second is that the negotiation is reluctantly completed, but then cannot fulfill the terms of the contract signed by the negotiation. These all pose great obstacles to the success of the project. Reasonable risk sharing is the guarantee of project success, and effective and specific risk sharing methods are urgently needed. This paper combs the common risks of quasi-operational infrastructure projects under PPP model from 14 authoritative documents. Then, the occurrence probability, damage degree and comprehensive influence degree of these risks are sorted by expert scoring method, and then 30 key risk factors, 5 important risk factors and 5 secondary risk factors are identified by ABC classification. It provides a general primary and secondary reference for the participants to analyze the problem of the sharing of many risk factors in practice. Then, by using the static game analysis of three parties' complete information, this paper draws a conclusion that the seven risks that can be undertaken by the public sector alone, such as approval / delay, imperfect legal and regulatory system, and financing risks, Five private sector risks, such as construction cost overruns, and 18 risks that need to be shared, such as inadequate returns and changing market demand. Then the paper makes a quantitative analysis of the proportion of the risk that needs to be shared by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Finally, the paper takes inflation risk as an example to analyze and apply it. The whole process of sharing is based on the four principles of sharing: the risk is assumed by the most controlling party, the risk must be capped, the degree of risk should be matched with the return, and the willingness to bear the risk. Based on the principle of risk sharing, the primary and secondary indexes of risk sharing are constructed, and the evaluation index system of risk sharing is established. The paper combines the qualitative analysis of complete information static game with the quantitative analysis of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and combines the satisfaction degree of share with the objectivity of index of sharing, and obtains the reasonable result of sharing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F283;F272.3
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 潘丹丹;;PPP融資模式在高校新校區(qū)建設(shè)中的應(yīng)用[J];邊疆經(jīng)濟與文化;2007年02期
2 杜亞靈;尹貽林;;基于模糊邏輯的公共項目風(fēng)險分配模型[J];北京理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2008年03期
3 陳立耘;馮廣德;黃曉東;;探索非經(jīng)營性和準經(jīng)營性城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目的融資途徑[J];財經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2012年04期
4 徐霞;鄭志林;;公私合作制(PPP)模式下的利益分配問題探討[J];城市發(fā)展研究;2009年03期
5 王灝;;“PPP”開創(chuàng)北京地鐵投融資模式先河[J];中國科技投資;2009年12期
6 賈康;孫潔;;公私伙伴關(guān)系(PPP)的概念、起源、特征與功能[J];財政研究;2009年10期
7 鄭彥璐;鄧小鵬;李啟明;;保障性住房PPP模式的風(fēng)險分配理論分析[J];東南大學(xué)學(xué)報(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版);2010年S1期
8 王灝;PPP的定義和分類研究[J];都市快軌交通;2004年05期
9 周運祥,曹國華;項目融資中風(fēng)險分擔(dān)的優(yōu)化模型分析[J];重慶大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2005年10期
10 林一陽;;基于灰色理論的BT項目融資風(fēng)險分擔(dān)評價[J];中國工程咨詢;2010年05期
本文編號：2238541
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/jingjilunwen/jingjiguanlilunwen/2238541.html
最近更新
教材專著
